IMO, the main reason kill numbers might end up a bit lower this year is because of less hunting, less hunting that has little do with TN resident hunters hunting other states (which seem to generally have less deer hunting going in them as well).
Some of the "less" hunting this year is weather related, acorn crop related.
When hunters go earlier in the season, the weather is warm, the deer movement low, they are less motivated to go more, end up hunting less. Lot more to it than that, but that is a larger factor this year than most.
There currently remains a LOT of deer-hunting opportunity between now and January 3rd.
We'll know how it ends up after the season ends.