TWRAs stance on why kill #'s are down

[Good time Charlie]

Me to..but what is your opinion why?

 

[ma.coleman]

Here is my analysis. This is for total deer harvest. I'll make a few tweaks and run the same for antlered only later.

The detail shown in this report is only for the month of October from 2009 thru 2015.

The average High and Low are from historical temperatures reported at Nashville's airport (BNA) from www.wunderground.com. Each day's high and low was compiled to average October's average temp per year.

The harvest report was pulled for October in each respective year, then filtered by the counties in middle TN - since the weather was averaged out of Nashville.


The color code on the counties are green-high harvest and red-low harvest.

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[Shooter77]

I would like to see Bone Collector's chart expanded out for the past 5 years. 2 years of data scientifically isn't a good indication. I do believe the 2 buck limit has created a reduction in buck harvest. I know a few guys that have let small bucks walk already cause they have harvested a buck early and don't want to burn that last tag on something smaller. The license deal might be a good indication also of the reason the #'s are down. But with the doe #'s relative flat, it's hard to say that's had a impact then because of that. after the season is over, the past 5 season could give us a better indication of things too.

I've actually seen more deer this year when the weather was warm then i did in late season. also my trail cams have shown more deer moving mid day during the warmest times during Sept-Nov.

 

[ma.coleman]

I know this is only October's data and will pull Nov once it closes out. None the less, even with this being a reflection of archery season, I have a hard time seeing that temps play a factor. Here's the same time periods for antlered only. 2013 on average was within one degree and has higher harvests.

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[Dbllunger]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

I decided not to buy a license this year. Hasn't slowed me down one bit. Two does with my bow so far.

 

[Bone Collector]

So I have some egg on my face, well a little anyway. I copied and pasted the data from the TWRA website and missed the 5 in the ones digit of the antlerless buck harvests. I was trying to figure out why the variance year over year, because I think most that are going to illegally check a deer will just skip the process all together and won;t waste their time.

I was double checking my #'s and sure enough i noticed the 450 antlerless in 2014 should have been 4,505...

Corrected graph, which basically shows harvests are down and it is mainly all bucks. Sorry for the confusion...

 

[Bone Collector]

I would like to see Bone Collector's chart expanded out for the past 5 years. 2 years of data scientifically isn't a good indication. I do believe the 2 buck limit has created a reduction in buck harvest. I know a few guys that have let small bucks walk already cause they have harvested a buck early and don't want to burn that last tag on something smaller. The license deal might be a good indication also of the reason the #'s are down. But with the doe #'s relative flat, it's hard to say that's had a impact then because of that. after the season is over, the past 5 season could give us a better indication of things too.

I've actually seen more deer this year when the weather was warm then i did in late season. also my trail cams have shown more deer moving mid day during the warmest times during Sept-Nov.

I can put it together when i have time or someone else can. Easy to get and load into Excel. then it is just a matter of making the chart.

 

[Bone Collector]

Never mind.

I thought about it and realized it would take 5 minutes to add the other years. 2012 was an up year....

 

[AT Hiker]

Thank you Bone Collector! You are going to give Vermin a run for the money when it comes to graphs!


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[Bone Collector]

Thank you Bone Collector! You are going to give Vermin a run for the money when it comes to graphs!


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Thanks! I don't know though. that Vermin guy is pretty crafty with the graphs.

Just food for thought the TWRA website must be updating throughout the day or at least they may update it more than once a day. I was trying to figure out why the bio data was different than the harvest data and figured out the bio data does not have an option for "all" so the WMA data is separate and has to be added to the county data to get the total #. In doing that i noticed the #'s through today went up some vs. what we saw when all this started. Over 200 more does have been added to the harvest report, and 347 more bucks were added.

Despite the new bucks, there is no way the buck total will catch last years total anytime soon if at all, but the doe kills are almost neck and neck vs. last year.

 

[PillsburyDoughboy]

According to a article in the Tennessean.

Im a little reluctant to believe this as the sole reason numbers are down. As already mentioned a billion times we should wait until the end of season to reflect, I just thought it was neat TWRA gave their opinion.

Correct me if Im wrong, but aren't antler-less numbers still on par? If true, that throws out the "to warm to process your own deer" theory that is mentioned in the article. If they are down as well then I could believe the warm weather theory.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/ ... /75934536/




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Thanks for posting.

I agree with what someone else said that I am not buying the part about the reason is not wanting to get out and hunt because of not wanting to kill in warm weather because of processing.

I would venture to guess that the great majority of hunters state wide use a professional processor to process their meat. I have at times done my own at home. But I have found someone that I like and trust that does a good job for $55 and for that amount and he provides all the wrapping its just easier and for me to have him do it. Plus it keeps me in the woods more this way. More hunting time for me.

October Archery weekend hunts were noticeably cooler for archery this season over last year. Last year I was turning on the Thermacell every day and burning through pads both morning and evening. This season I only used it opening weekend. I used a coat for almost every morning hunt this year. Something I did NOT do last year. It has been seasonably warmer late October and November has been brutally warm.

This past weekend was the first good weekend of cooler temps we have seen.

 

[JDS]

Never mind.

I thought about it and realized it would take 5 minutes to add the other years. 2012 was an up year....

So why is 2012 such a good crop? Why the steady decline since 2011? May be reading this wrong though. Thanks

 

[JDS]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

Not sure I follow. How can you harvest without license, land owners exemption? Just curious. Thanks


I decided not to buy a license this year. Hasn't slowed me down one bit. Two does with my bow so far.

 

[Dbllunger]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

Not sure I follow. How can you harvest without license, land owners exemption? Just curious. Thanks


I decided not to buy a license this year. Hasn't slowed me down one bit. Two does with my bow so far.

Lifetime License holder! I'm never buying again. Take that TWRA!

 

[Bone Collector]

Never mind.

I thought about it and realized it would take 5 minutes to add the other years. 2012 was an up year....

So why is 2012 such a good crop? Why the steady decline since 2011? May be reading this wrong though. Thanks

Someone asked for 5 yrs. of data, and 2011 is the starting point. All years represent the same time period. 9/1 -11/19. Chart reads for each category from the left bar (2011) to the right bar (2015).

There hasn't been a steady decline since 2011. There was an increase from 2011 to 2012. I have no idea why 2012 had so many kills by this time compared to other years. Since then it has declined, but essentially flattened out from 2013 through 2014. Then this year, the total harvest is down again, and it appears it is being dragged down by the # of bucks and the # of antlerless bucks that have been killed.

 

[callemquacktn]

I talked to my processor and he said the first weekend of Mz they only had 40 brought in on Saturday and even less on sunday. Very warm and raining here on that weekend. This last weekend he said he had over 80 brought in on Saturday and about the same on sunday. Weather was MUCH cooler. I don't think people were holding off the first weekend other than on bucks. I think the deer sightings were down. If you go back and look at the threads opening weekend alot of people were complaining of not seeing anything.

 

[Bone Collector]

I talked to my processor and he said the first weekend of Mz they only had 40 brought in on Saturday and even less on sunday. Very warm and raining here on that weekend. This last weekend he said he had over 80 brought in on Saturday and about the same on sunday. Weather was MUCH cooler. I don't think people were holding off the first weekend other than on bucks. I think the deer sightings were down. If you go back and look at the threads opening weekend alot of people were complaining of not seeing anything.

this may be true in some cases, but I saw deer every hunt except 1 and that hunt my brother was about 300 yds away and saw 5. I have passed everything waiting on one of the bigger bucks on mine and his property. He has done the same. We could have killed does or a small buck on every hunt.

 

[PillsburyDoughboy]

To all the peeps that want to use every little piece of data they can find to support the 2 buck limit.

STOP!

Your making fools of yourself. NO DATA that you can collect at this point is going to show support for the 2 buck limit. NONE. Quit trying.

Its going to COLLECTIVE take data over SEVERAL YEARS to show one way or the other what effect the 2 buck limit is having on the herd.

This is getting ridiculous.

 

[lightsareout]

Never mind.

I thought about it and realized it would take 5 minutes to add the other years. 2012 was an up year....

2012 must have been a cooler than normal year :stir:


op:

 

[Buzzard Breath]

I'm not much of a gun hunter, so this may be a stupid question. But, was 2012 the year they added the extra week for muzzleloader? If so, that may explain the increase in the too date harvest.