TWRAs stance on why kill #'s are down

[AT Hiker]

According to a article in the Tennessean.

Im a little reluctant to believe this as the sole reason numbers are down. As already mentioned a billion times we should wait until the end of season to reflect, I just thought it was neat TWRA gave their opinion.

Correct me if Im wrong, but aren't antler-less numbers still on par? If true, that throws out the "to warm to process your own deer" theory that is mentioned in the article. If they are down as well then I could believe the warm weather theory.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/ ... /75934536/




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[Good time Charlie]

Numbers are down because ,a lot of hunters are choosing to let the smaller bucks walk.
Go to the hunters toolbox and look at the 7- 8 points that are killed to date this year as compared to last.

Then look at the spikes and 4 points,many more big deer killed this year.
This is my theory and if it is true ,2 buck limit is already working.

 

[AT Hiker]

Numbers are down because ,a lot of hunters are choosing to let the smaller bucks walk.
Go to the hunters toolbox and look at the 7- 8 points that are killed to date this year as compared to last.

Then look at the spikes and 4 points,many more big deer killed this year.
This is my theory and if it is true ,2 buck limit is already working.

Genius! I didnt even think to compare number of points killed versus years past.

I cannot navigate the tool box on my phone, so are antlerless numbers down, up, steady?


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[muddyboots]

Yep. I preached it the whole time. Not many people killed 3 bucks but changing limit to 2 really changed a lot of people's mindset. Saved lots young bucks.

 

[TNReb]

There's not really any statistically significant changes in the percentage of higher antlered bucks being killed this year.

Antlered Buck Harvest

9/1/2014 - 11/19/2014

9/1/2015 - 11/19/2015

 

[30Crappie]

Future is looking brighter!

 

[AT Hiker]

In all honesty Im not on the "2-buck limit has caused the decline in numbers" reason yet. It sounds plausible for sure, just as the weather (assuming ALL #'s are down and not just bucks).

Im not saying the sky is falling but I hope it is not something serious either.

Maybe I just expected a little more detailed response other than "its the weather". To his defense it may be their way of saying...chill out man its no big deal, yet.


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[AT Hiker]

Nice graph TNReb! Thanks for clarifying that too. That theory is shot down.


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[AT Hiker]

,look at the diff.in the smaller bucks

Several thousand more were killed last year ,

Outside of the 8 point total the graph shows more big deer killed.

It looks like all buck numbers are down and not just those under 8pts, according to what I can see on the graph at least.


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[Good time Charlie]

yep I was looking at it wrong.Theory shot.

You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make them drink.

 

[catman529]

2 buck limit is definitely a big part of it, and the warmer weather. I've had warm days that were dead but I've also had multiple deer in range on warm windy days. I think a lot of people stay home when it's warm, even if the deer are moving.


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[Bone Collector]

There's not really any statistically significant changes in the percentage of higher antlered bucks being killed this year.

Antlered Buck Harvest

9/1/2014 - 11/19/2014

9/1/2015 - 11/19/2015

I'm not a fan of the 2 buck limit and think people should just limit themselves. Looking at your charts, it appears from a % stand point you are correct in saying that not has changed, but if you look at volumes they are almost 1/2 in most cast year over year. What I mean is last year same period spike harvest were 4,485 this year 2,485... that is 2,000 less. In fact all # of points is down vs. last year.

 

[TNGunsmoke]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

 

[Bone Collector]

I didn't make my chart as nice as TNReb's but is is the same periods of time compared. Not looking specifically at point #'s, but rather doe harvest vs. Doe harvest, total vs. total, etc...

I think the most telling # is the "antlerless Buck" harvest #'s. last year 400 and change this year up 5x....I'm not going to speculate like many have that it is the dreaded untrustworthy telecheck system, because honestly we have past the point of no return on re-implementing check stations, but it would be easy to kill a spike and check it as an antlerless buck and save a tag.

Also AThiker doe harvest are relatively flat year over year.

 

[Pic IN the Casa]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

That would be interesting to see. Good point.

 

[AT Hiker]

I didn't make my chart as nice as TNReb's but is is the same periods of time compared. Not looking specifically at point #'s, but rather doe harvest vs. Doe harvest, total vs. total, etc...

I think the most telling # is the "antlerless Buck" harvest #'s. last year 400 and change this year up 5x....I'm not going to speculate like many have that it is the dreaded untrustworthy telecheck system, because honestly we have past the point of no return on re-implementing check stations, but it would be easy to kill a spike and check it as an antlerless buck and save a tag.

Also AThiker doe harvest are relatively flat year over year.

Thank you! That antlerless number is both troubling and puzzling.

Since doe harvest are flat, I disagree with TWRA's opinion on why kill numbers are down. If its to warm to process your own deer then why in the world would you shoot a doe? IMO, doe numbers would be down as well. If its 70 outside then Im less likey to "meat-hunt", but if a buck walks out that I want to shoot then Im gonna shoot it and hurry like heck to get it processed. A doe on the other hand gets a pass in that situation.


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[Bone Collector]

One interesting fact that i just saw is that if you pull the total harvest #'s and then pull the biological data #'s that break it down by points the two #'s do not match.

Total harvest #'s by county shows buck harvest at 28,120 (antlered + button + antlerless buck) and the biological data which does not show Antlerless bucks shows 26,332 but when you add the antlerless # (2,237) that # goes to 28,569. so there is a variance.

Also when you pull the biological data for statewide which shows buck and doe and age class etc, the buck harvest is listed at 28,153.

I guess what I'm saying is the data is close so we can use it, but there are some anomalies in the data, so it is at this point, until the season ends and all #'s are in directional at best, and not exact.

 

[Bone Collector]

Thank you! That antlerless number is both troubling and puzzling.

Since doe harvest are flat, I disagree with TWRA's opinion on why kill numbers are down. If its to warm to process your own deer then why in the world would you shoot a doe? IMO, doe numbers would be down as well. If its 70 outside then Im less likey to "meat-hunt", but if a buck walks out that I want to shoot then Im gonna shoot it and hurry like heck to get it processed. A doe on the other hand gets a pass in that situation.


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Yeah I don;t let weather dictate to me what I shoot. I have shot deer in 70's with a bow. I just got down sooner to look, recovered, the deer and got outta of there. Deer was fine.

 

[knightrider]

and a bunch of the opening weekend muzzle loader kills have not been uploaded yet, those checked in by twra who was collecting samples that weekend have not been uploaded to the system yet or mine hasn't been anyways

 

[Bone Collector]

the single biggest piece of evidence that I can think of to refute the weather theory is that the difference in harvest from last year to this year is pretty much just antlered deer.

The doe Harvest is right on track.

I kinda was thinking the same thing looking at the data.