TWRAs stance on why kill #'s are down

[AT Hiker]

According to a article in the Tennessean.

Im a little reluctant to believe this as the sole reason numbers are down. As already mentioned a billion times we should wait until the end of season to reflect, I just thought it was neat TWRA gave their opinion.

Correct me if Im wrong, but aren't antler-less numbers still on par? If true, that throws out the "to warm to process your own deer" theory that is mentioned in the article. If they are down as well then I could believe the warm weather theory.

http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/ ... /75934536/




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[Good time Charlie]

Numbers are down because ,a lot of hunters are choosing to let the smaller bucks walk.
Go to the hunters toolbox and look at the 7- 8 points that are killed to date this year as compared to last.

Then look at the spikes and 4 points,many more big deer killed this year.
This is my theory and if it is true ,2 buck limit is already working.

 

[AT Hiker]

Numbers are down because ,a lot of hunters are choosing to let the smaller bucks walk.
Go to the hunters toolbox and look at the 7- 8 points that are killed to date this year as compared to last.

Then look at the spikes and 4 points,many more big deer killed this year.
This is my theory and if it is true ,2 buck limit is already working.

Genius! I didnt even think to compare number of points killed versus years past.

I cannot navigate the tool box on my phone, so are antlerless numbers down, up, steady?


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[muddyboots]

Yep. I preached it the whole time. Not many people killed 3 bucks but changing limit to 2 really changed a lot of people's mindset. Saved lots young bucks.

 

[TNReb]

There's not really any statistically significant changes in the percentage of higher antlered bucks being killed this year.

Antlered Buck Harvest

9/1/2014 - 11/19/2014

9/1/2015 - 11/19/2015

 

[30Crappie]

Future is looking brighter!

 

[AT Hiker]

In all honesty Im not on the "2-buck limit has caused the decline in numbers" reason yet. It sounds plausible for sure, just as the weather (assuming ALL #'s are down and not just bucks).

Im not saying the sky is falling but I hope it is not something serious either.

Maybe I just expected a little more detailed response other than "its the weather". To his defense it may be their way of saying...chill out man its no big deal, yet.


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[AT Hiker]

Nice graph TNReb! Thanks for clarifying that too. That theory is shot down.


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[AT Hiker]

,look at the diff.in the smaller bucks

Several thousand more were killed last year ,

Outside of the 8 point total the graph shows more big deer killed.

It looks like all buck numbers are down and not just those under 8pts, according to what I can see on the graph at least.


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[Good time Charlie]

yep I was looking at it wrong.Theory shot.

You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make them drink.

 

[catman529]

2 buck limit is definitely a big part of it, and the warmer weather. I've had warm days that were dead but I've also had multiple deer in range on warm windy days. I think a lot of people stay home when it's warm, even if the deer are moving.


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[Bone Collector]

There's not really any statistically significant changes in the percentage of higher antlered bucks being killed this year.

Antlered Buck Harvest

9/1/2014 - 11/19/2014

9/1/2015 - 11/19/2015

I'm not a fan of the 2 buck limit and think people should just limit themselves. Looking at your charts, it appears from a % stand point you are correct in saying that not has changed, but if you look at volumes they are almost 1/2 in most cast year over year. What I mean is last year same period spike harvest were 4,485 this year 2,485... that is 2,000 less. In fact all # of points is down vs. last year.

 

[TNGunsmoke]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

 

[Bone Collector]

I didn't make my chart as nice as TNReb's but is is the same periods of time compared. Not looking specifically at point #'s, but rather doe harvest vs. Doe harvest, total vs. total, etc...

I think the most telling # is the "antlerless Buck" harvest #'s. last year 400 and change this year up 5x....I'm not going to speculate like many have that it is the dreaded untrustworthy telecheck system, because honestly we have past the point of no return on re-implementing check stations, but it would be easy to kill a spike and check it as an antlerless buck and save a tag.

Also AThiker doe harvest are relatively flat year over year.

 

[Pic IN the Casa]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

That would be interesting to see. Good point.

 

[AT Hiker]

I didn't make my chart as nice as TNReb's but is is the same periods of time compared. Not looking specifically at point #'s, but rather doe harvest vs. Doe harvest, total vs. total, etc...

I think the most telling # is the "antlerless Buck" harvest #'s. last year 400 and change this year up 5x....I'm not going to speculate like many have that it is the dreaded untrustworthy telecheck system, because honestly we have past the point of no return on re-implementing check stations, but it would be easy to kill a spike and check it as an antlerless buck and save a tag.

Also AThiker doe harvest are relatively flat year over year.

Thank you! That antlerless number is both troubling and puzzling.

Since doe harvest are flat, I disagree with TWRA's opinion on why kill numbers are down. If its to warm to process your own deer then why in the world would you shoot a doe? IMO, doe numbers would be down as well. If its 70 outside then Im less likey to "meat-hunt", but if a buck walks out that I want to shoot then Im gonna shoot it and hurry like heck to get it processed. A doe on the other hand gets a pass in that situation.


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[Bone Collector]

One interesting fact that i just saw is that if you pull the total harvest #'s and then pull the biological data #'s that break it down by points the two #'s do not match.

Total harvest #'s by county shows buck harvest at 28,120 (antlered + button + antlerless buck) and the biological data which does not show Antlerless bucks shows 26,332 but when you add the antlerless # (2,237) that # goes to 28,569. so there is a variance.

Also when you pull the biological data for statewide which shows buck and doe and age class etc, the buck harvest is listed at 28,153.

I guess what I'm saying is the data is close so we can use it, but there are some anomalies in the data, so it is at this point, until the season ends and all #'s are in directional at best, and not exact.

 

[Bone Collector]

Thank you! That antlerless number is both troubling and puzzling.

Since doe harvest are flat, I disagree with TWRA's opinion on why kill numbers are down. If its to warm to process your own deer then why in the world would you shoot a doe? IMO, doe numbers would be down as well. If its 70 outside then Im less likey to "meat-hunt", but if a buck walks out that I want to shoot then Im gonna shoot it and hurry like heck to get it processed. A doe on the other hand gets a pass in that situation.


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Yeah I don;t let weather dictate to me what I shoot. I have shot deer in 70's with a bow. I just got down sooner to look, recovered, the deer and got outta of there. Deer was fine.

 

[knightrider]

and a bunch of the opening weekend muzzle loader kills have not been uploaded yet, those checked in by twra who was collecting samples that weekend have not been uploaded to the system yet or mine hasn't been anyways

 

[Bone Collector]

the single biggest piece of evidence that I can think of to refute the weather theory is that the difference in harvest from last year to this year is pretty much just antlered deer.

The doe Harvest is right on track.

I kinda was thinking the same thing looking at the data.

 

[Good time Charlie]

Me to..but what is your opinion why?

 

[ma.coleman]

Here is my analysis. This is for total deer harvest. I'll make a few tweaks and run the same for antlered only later.

The detail shown in this report is only for the month of October from 2009 thru 2015.

The average High and Low are from historical temperatures reported at Nashville's airport (BNA) from www.wunderground.com. Each day's high and low was compiled to average October's average temp per year.

The harvest report was pulled for October in each respective year, then filtered by the counties in middle TN - since the weather was averaged out of Nashville.


The color code on the counties are green-high harvest and red-low harvest.

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[Shooter77]

I would like to see Bone Collector's chart expanded out for the past 5 years. 2 years of data scientifically isn't a good indication. I do believe the 2 buck limit has created a reduction in buck harvest. I know a few guys that have let small bucks walk already cause they have harvested a buck early and don't want to burn that last tag on something smaller. The license deal might be a good indication also of the reason the #'s are down. But with the doe #'s relative flat, it's hard to say that's had a impact then because of that. after the season is over, the past 5 season could give us a better indication of things too.

I've actually seen more deer this year when the weather was warm then i did in late season. also my trail cams have shown more deer moving mid day during the warmest times during Sept-Nov.

 

[ma.coleman]

I know this is only October's data and will pull Nov once it closes out. None the less, even with this being a reflection of archery season, I have a hard time seeing that temps play a factor. Here's the same time periods for antlered only. 2013 on average was within one degree and has higher harvests.

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[Dbllunger]

I wonder how the license sales numbers compare to last year. Sportsman's number sold, Bow only, ML only, and gun only. Could be some backlash from the fee increase in cost of license and a bunch of folks elected not to buy sportsman's that did, or elected to skip out on archery or ml tags.

I decided not to buy a license this year. Hasn't slowed me down one bit. Two does with my bow so far.

 

[Bone Collector]

So I have some egg on my face, well a little anyway. I copied and pasted the data from the TWRA website and missed the 5 in the ones digit of the antlerless buck harvests. I was trying to figure out why the variance year over year, because I think most that are going to illegally check a deer will just skip the process all together and won;t waste their time.

I was double checking my #'s and sure enough i noticed the 450 antlerless in 2014 should have been 4,505...

Corrected graph, which basically shows harvests are down and it is mainly all bucks. Sorry for the confusion...

 

[Bone Collector]

I would like to see Bone Collector's chart expanded out for the past 5 years. 2 years of data scientifically isn't a good indication. I do believe the 2 buck limit has created a reduction in buck harvest. I know a few guys that have let small bucks walk already cause they have harvested a buck early and don't want to burn that last tag on something smaller. The license deal might be a good indication also of the reason the #'s are down. But with the doe #'s relative flat, it's hard to say that's had a impact then because of that. after the season is over, the past 5 season could give us a better indication of things too.

I've actually seen more deer this year when the weather was warm then i did in late season. also my trail cams have shown more deer moving mid day during the warmest times during Sept-Nov.

I can put it together when i have time or someone else can. Easy to get and load into Excel. then it is just a matter of making the chart.

 

[Bone Collector]

Never mind.

I thought about it and realized it would take 5 minutes to add the other years. 2012 was an up year....

 

[AT Hiker]

Thank you Bone Collector! You are going to give Vermin a run for the money when it comes to graphs!


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[Bone Collector]

Thank you Bone Collector! You are going to give Vermin a run for the money when it comes to graphs!


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Thanks! I don't know though. that Vermin guy is pretty crafty with the graphs.

Just food for thought the TWRA website must be updating throughout the day or at least they may update it more than once a day. I was trying to figure out why the bio data was different than the harvest data and figured out the bio data does not have an option for "all" so the WMA data is separate and has to be added to the county data to get the total #. In doing that i noticed the #'s through today went up some vs. what we saw when all this started. Over 200 more does have been added to the harvest report, and 347 more bucks were added.

Despite the new bucks, there is no way the buck total will catch last years total anytime soon if at all, but the doe kills are almost neck and neck vs. last year.