darn2ten":277liqak said:
Disturbing numbers for sure. After looking over other states I'm not aware of initial detection prevalence rates even close to those numbers unless I missed some somewhere, which is possible. After looking at other data for other cwd hot zones and how their yearly percentages grew, it may be safe to say it's been there for somewhere between 3-5 years. I know there are variables, but I would think that would be pretty close.
Based on the prevalence rate and the geographical distribution, I agree that 3 - 5 is a minimum time that it has been present and it wouldn't surprise me if it was 6 - 8 years. If impacts were being seen on Ames 3 years ago but unknown, you probably have to back it up another 3 - 4 years to allow for multiple generations of the infection.
I really wish that Haywood had been added in the special season to collect more samples. I'm afraid that we are going to find the distribution is farther north than current positives have indicated.
One problem with the sampling to date is that location of the kill has not been recorded unless the tests come back positive (from what I've heard — hunters are contacted to provide location after the preliminary positive? — I'm hoping this is wrong). So a county may show as having sufficient samples for the statistical analysis, but the geographic distribution of those samples may not be statistical. Ideally GPS coordinates are being recorded for all samples — positives and non-positives.