BIG October cold snap

[Urban_Hunter]

BSK, if you took a shot in the dark at saying HOW MUCH a cold snap increases daylight activity…. What would be your guess? 10% increase? 30%?

 

[Shep 41]

Massive temp drop tonight fellas. Who is taking off work tomorrow? Have a meeting with my boss later today where I'm going to inform him I need the day. I'm blessed to have a great boss that knows exactly why I would want off tomorrow and won't give me a hard time about it.

Slightly related, @BSK since this cold snap is VERY out of the norm, think it forces anything unusual? Maybe some early rutting activity? Was talking about this with a buddy at church yesterday just sort of wondering.

I'm deliberating right now. For sure going tomorrow evening and Wednesday morning but can't decide if I want to try for it in the morning or not. I do believe this weather will get them moving though and Wednesday will probably be the best day. Good hunting fortune to all who can be in the stand.

 

[Popcorn]

My experience has almost 100% been that cold fronts do in fact cause a heightened level of activity in the 24 hours immediately prior to the arrival of the front! and diminishes activity in the 12 to 24 hours after

 

[Ski]

My experience has almost 100% been that cold fronts do in fact cause a heightened level of activity in the 24 hours immediately prior to the arrival of the front! and diminishes activity in the 12 to 24 hours after

The pressure spikes that accompany the first mornings of a front seem to coincide with activity, and by Thursday the pressure is tapering way off. Tomorrow and Wednesday mornings are both going to be around 30.2, which is a pretty high spike. I don't know that I'll get a shot opportunity but I'll be surprised if I don't at least see a bruiser.

 

[THE DUKE]

Massive temp drop tonight fellas. Who is taking off work tomorrow? Have a meeting with my boss later today where I'm going to inform him I need the day. I'm blessed to have a great boss that knows exactly why I would want off tomorrow and won't give me a hard time about it.

Slightly related, @BSK since this cold snap is VERY out of the norm, think it forces anything unusual? Maybe some early rutting activity? Was talking about this with a buddy at church yesterday just sort of wondering.

From my experience weather has very small play in rut, it's driven by the amount of daylight in the day. If daylight hours have changed and shortened and it's 80° they will be rutting

 

[muddyboots]

a lot!

 

[Easy3actual]

My cell camera said it was 33 degrees last night. I've started getting several photos during the night. Which is great since I haven't received any photos since the farmer harvested the corn a week ago.

 

[BSK]

BSK, if you took a shot in the dark at saying HOW MUCH a cold snap increases daylight activity…. What would be your guess? 10% increase? 30%?

How much temperature affects daylight deer movement is truly one of those "on average" sorts of things. On a given day, it can have zero effect. But "on average" there is a trend, and that trend in fall is for higher movement during daylight the colder it is. Below is a graph including 35 years of hunter observation data for buck sighting rates on morning hunts by the low temperature during the hunt - degree by degree. Notice how wildly fluctuating the data is from degree to degree. Yet at the same time, there is a statistical trend (black line). This trend suggests that going from the coldest to the warmest mornings, buck sighting rates are cut in half.

 

[DeerCamp]

Massive temp drop tonight fellas. Who is taking off work tomorrow? Have a meeting with my boss later today where I'm going to inform him I need the day. I'm blessed to have a great boss that knows exactly why I would want off tomorrow and won't give me a hard time about it.

Slightly related, @BSK since this cold snap is VERY out of the norm, think it forces anything unusual? Maybe some early rutting activity? Was talking about this with a buddy at church yesterday just sort of wondering.

In my experience, unexpected early cold snaps like this are not good for early deer movement. If this were November, different story!

I run 7 cams on our place, and haven't had a single pic since about 10PM last night. Usually would have several by now.

Bet around 10AM things get good.

 

[DeerCamp]

How much temperature affects daylight deer movement is truly one of those "on average" sorts of things. On a given day, it can have zero effect. But "on average" there is a trend, and that trend in fall is for higher movement during daylight the colder it is. Below is a graph including 35 years of hunter observation data for buck sighting rates on morning hunts by the low temperature during the hunt - degree by degree. Notice how wildly fluctuating the data is from degree to degree. Yet at the same time, there is a statistical trend (black line). This trend suggests that going from the coldest to the warmest mornings, buck sighting rates are cut in half.

Hey BSK - years ago you posted a graph. Not sure if it was this one, but basically showed an optimal temp for movement. There was a "too cold" just as much as there was a "too hot".

I did an all day sit at Natchez Trace in 2018(?) on a spot loaded with deer sign and previous good sightings.

The low that day was below 0 with the windchill.

We did not see a single animal the entire day. Ha.

 

[Urban_Hunter]

How much temperature affects daylight deer movement is truly one of those "on average" sorts of things. On a given day, it can have zero effect. But "on average" there is a trend, and that trend in fall is for higher movement during daylight the colder it is. Below is a graph including 35 years of hunter observation data for buck sighting rates on morning hunts by the low temperature during the hunt - degree by degree. Notice how wildly fluctuating the data is from degree to degree. Yet at the same time, there is a statistical trend (black line). This trend suggests that going from the coldest to the warmest mornings, buck sighting rates are cut in half.

Awesome, thanks!

 

[Ski]

At 745 I saw 7 does. Just now at 815 I saw 4 bucks, two of which were mature. One was a 2yr and the last was a spike. Bachelor group still.

 

[Bgoodman30]

The pressure spikes that accompany the first mornings of a front seem to coincide with activity, and by Thursday the pressure is tapering way off. Tomorrow and Wednesday mornings are both going to be around 30.2, which is a pretty high spike. I don't know that I'll get a shot opportunity but I'll be surprised if I don't at least see a bruiser.

All these comments about the days after and you're the first one to mention the BP...

 

[Kevin]

Only 2 I saw this morning taking the kids to school was in in a corn field beaming in the sun. I have others spots I typically see them every morning. I would think around 10 or so there would be plenty of movement.

And I would think this afternoon would be a great time to sit under a oak tree. Which is where I will be.

 

[Bgoodman30]

I think if you're not seeing much during the first cold morning you're getting down too early... But tomorrow should be better at 30.2

 

[BSK]

Hey BSK - years ago you posted a graph. Not sure if it was this one, but basically showed an optimal temp for movement. There was a "too cold" just as much as there was a "too hot".

I did an all day sit at Natchez Trace in 2018(?) on a spot loaded with deer sign and previous good sightings.

The low that day was below 0 with the windchill.

We did not see a single animal the entire day. Ha.

In TN, I would think the cut-off is somewhere around 15 degrees. I've spent a few mornings hunting in below 15-degree weather (a few in single digits) and never saw a thing.

 

[hitek7]

My #1 was on camera eating acorns between 2:00-3:30 this morning... This does me no good for hunting. But I do not think it is going to keep me from trying tomorrow.

 

[Hduke86]

On my way home last night about 9:30pm I saw an usual amount of deer. The wind had picked up and the front was definitely coming in. Even when I got up the mountain I saw a handful out in fields eating at about 10:30-11:00pm which is unusual.

 

[UCStandSitter]

Ended up having a work thing come up for today so I pivoted to tomorrow. Based on cams alone I'm glad I did.

 

[UT-longbeard]

Getting steady movement so far from my cell cams.