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I made a few comments relating to the whistleblower reprisal lawsuit in another thread. If you didn't read them, I strongly encourage you to read this post. I'll try to keep it brief.
I want to make clear that this is not a bash TWRA post. But I also want to point out that I have been involved in laboratory testing for 20 years. I've performed every kind of testing they are using, and I have also managed a pharmaceutical laboratory. A lot is on the line for all of us here.
Key Points:
Notice how the outliers are in purple? This is because each year is a different color. Purple is 2021.
In order for this to be true, you need to believe a couple things:
I'm saying that this type of random, solitary spread over large distances DOES NOT HAPPEN IN THE WILD. That's not how diseases spread. Deer don't get on airplanes. Look at the spread in other states - it generally has been gradual and progressive.
If these were valid positives, we likely would have found others in and around them with the volume of testing (thousands of deer tested per year from these counties). But that hasn't happened.
I hope we get to the bottom of this. It is my belief at this time that there is reason to suspect that these outlier screening results might not actually be positive.
I want to make clear that this is not a bash TWRA post. But I also want to point out that I have been involved in laboratory testing for 20 years. I've performed every kind of testing they are using, and I have also managed a pharmaceutical laboratory. A lot is on the line for all of us here.
Key Points:
- For the first 3 years of testing after the CWD program was initiated, TWRA sent every sample for confirmatory testing. We saw no crazy outliers and the data made sense.
- In 2021, there was an ELISA positive result for a Crockett county deer. The confirmatory was negative. This resulted in no action for Crockett.
- Shortly after this, TWRA stops sending results for confirmatory testing due to costs.
- Later in 2021, the rate of positives results begins to increase, but the increases are largely coming from one specific lab (Big red flag) *According to Kelly*
- Dyer, Weakley, Henry, Gibson and Henderson County all receive positive results in a relatively short time frame around 2021/2022 season.
- None of these results reportedly received confirmatory testing.
- As a result, CWD appears to be expanding rapidly.
Notice how the outliers are in purple? This is because each year is a different color. Purple is 2021.
In order for this to be true, you need to believe a couple things:
- We happened to find several evidently rare outlier positives by chance, all around the same time frame
- That these outliers are 40-50 miles away from the nearest positives known at that time
- That in the 2 seasons since those tests, we have found no subsequent positives near these, or in the areas in between them despite an increase in overall testing.
- That includes almost 700 tests in Henry County this year ALONE
- That these are valid positives even though no confirmatories were done, despite another known false positive in Crockett county around the same time period occurring.
- That James Kelly is lying when he said they eventually sent these positives for confirmatory testing, and they were negative but they didn't tell anyone.
I'm saying that this type of random, solitary spread over large distances DOES NOT HAPPEN IN THE WILD. That's not how diseases spread. Deer don't get on airplanes. Look at the spread in other states - it generally has been gradual and progressive.
If these were valid positives, we likely would have found others in and around them with the volume of testing (thousands of deer tested per year from these counties). But that hasn't happened.
I hope we get to the bottom of this. It is my belief at this time that there is reason to suspect that these outlier screening results might not actually be positive.
