New Article on CWD by Dr. Alan Houston, Ames Plantation

[DeerCamp]

So you don't think there is any expansion?

I wouldn't say that I don't think there is any expansion. But just look at the data.

The years are color coded. Isn't it just a bit suspicious that essentially all of the outliers are purple (2021)? And that happens to be the period where they stopped doing confirmatory testing?

We are supposed to believe that CWD just magically jumped to 5 outlying counties in the 2021 time period, far away from any known hot zones, skipping the areas in between and now no additional positives have come from those areas in 2 seasons?

Since that 2021 Henry County "positive", the nearest other positive is almost 50 miles away.

That's not how diseases spread in the wild. Deer don't get on airplanes.

If you believe the whistleblower, they later sent those suspect outlier samples for IHC testing and they were confirmed negative.

It all makes sense to me.

 

[fairchaser]

Big big misconception! They still mature and have had just as good a rack as ever. I personally have 2 buddies who hunt properties beside Ames that have killed 2 bucks, 1 last year and 1 this year that were 5-1/2 yr olds that scored in the 150's. Both tested positive for CWD as well.

It all depends on when they got the disease. Also some deer can tolerate it better than others. The "experts" say they will die 18 months after they get the disease. But, who really knows!

 

[Flintlocksforme]

A lot of the comments last year and this year in this post point out that less people are taking and eating deer for CWD related reasons ( fear, transportation, processing place closed,etc.) Doesn't that make the liberal earn a buck limits make more sense. I am out of buck tags but need a few more deer for my freezer. According to the plan I should not hesitate to shoot the next antler-less deer I see on CWD zone land, and in doing so I will be earning another buck. If less people are hunting, does this really make a difference. How would less people hunting really wipe out the deer population? I know the plan is to thin out the population, so someone has to pull the trigger. There were always a few good bucks that survived the 80s-90s buck slaughter days. They lived on because they were smart. I believe the deer will survive in the long run.

 

[Andy S.]

These positives below all happened in the same time frame (2021), and then there have never been any others over 2 additional seasons.

That's statistically VERY unlikely.

View attachment 208193

Agree, BUT, I want to see the number of deer tested in those counties since then, to have a better understanding of the overall picture. Essentially, what has the sample size been? With known prevalence rates being next to nil in some areas across the country, if they have only tested small number of deer in/around those positives, one positive in a few years could be feasible. I do not have the data in front of me to make an informed decision, but I know TWRA does. On a different note, but pertaining to the "sampling size" discussion, I know of a lot of "good ole country boys" who refuse to get deer tested, for their fear of an all out assault on the local deer herd if one were to test positive. That is not helping with the "sampling" per se. I'm all about the sampling to be better informed of where the positives are, but I fully expect QA/QC and oversight of the sampling process, as much as possible, within reason.

 

[backyardtndeer]

Since that 2021 Henry County "positive", the nearest other positive is almost 50 miles away.

How did it jump to where it did in KY.... No positives anywhere in between. It skipped an entire county.

That's not how diseases spread in the wild. Deer don't get on airplanes.

When buzzards and other birds like eagles can go long distances, it's just common sense that deer don't have to move from their core area.

If you believe the whistleblower, they later sent those suspect outlier samples for IHC testing and they were confirmed negative.

I honestly don't know what to believe, but if there were really no positive deer in Gibson, Dyer, or Henry, then the deer that tested positive in KY would seem to become even more unlikely. And even if the whistleblower is right, twra doesn't influence KY 's testing, so that really makes even less sense.

I do wonder about the lack of negatives in these counties, but I also know that a lot of deer go without being tested.

 

[backyardtndeer]

On a different note, but pertaining to the "sampling size" discussion, I also know of a lot of "good ole country boys" who refuse to get deer tested, for their fear of an all out assault on the local deer herd if one were to test positive.

Yep. I would guess the area I hunt has very few who take in samples.

Agree, BUT, I want to see the number of deer tested in those counties since then, to have a better understanding of the overall picture.

I hit on this in the twra survey. They need to do a better job of getting that information back to us. Seeing a map with all the sampling data specific to your area would be very informative.

 

[DeerCamp]

Agree, BUT, I want to see the number of deer tested in those counties since then, to have a better understanding of the overall picture. Essentially, what has the sample size been? With known prevalence rates being next to nil in some areas across the country, if they have only tested small number of deer in/around those positives, one positive in a few years could be feasible. I do not have the data in front of me to make an informed decision, but I know TWRA does. On a different note, but pertaining to the "sampling size" discussion, I know of a lot of "good ole country boys" who refuse to get deer tested, for their fear of an all out assault on the local deer herd if one were to test positive. That is not helping with the "sampling" per se. I'm all about the sampling to be better informed of where the positives are, but I fully expect QA/QC and oversight of the sampling process, as much as possible, within reason.

I don't have the data for previous years, but there have been over 700 tests in Henry County this year alone.

 

[DeerCamp]

How did it jump to where it did in KY.... No positives anywhere in between. It skipped an entire county.

When buzzards and other birds like eagles can go long distances, it's just common sense that deer don't have to move from their core area.

I honestly don't know what to believe, but if there were really no positive deer in Gibson, Dyer, or Henry, then the deer that tested positive in KY would seem to become even more unlikely. And even if the whistleblower is right, twra doesn't influence KY 's testing, so that really makes even less sense.

I do wonder about the lack of negatives in these counties, but I also know that a lot of deer go without being tested.

1. That remains to be seen. Other outlier cases have been resolved through investigation including hunters lying about where they harvested the animals.

2. Prion spread from avian scavengers is theorized, but the risk is thought to be relatively low. If they were to blame, you wouldn't expect several results all around the same time and then none since unless their population has changed.

3. There is also a known hotspots in Southeast Missouri - I don't know any details of the Kentucky positive. I suppose its entirely possible that a sick animal wanders a hundred miles in confusion and then dies.

4. A lot of deer do go untested, but there have been thousands of tests per year in those counties with no additional positives.

 

[DeerCamp]

I think that was the issue, at least according to the lawsuit, they did not do the follow-up test. While it is probable that the deer were positive, there is still that doubt, and that they jumped the gun on declaring an entire county positive with only one positive test.

If you believe him, he specifically states they restested 9 suspect samples, and all 9 were confirmed negative.

 

[DeerCamp]

As someone in the know in regards to CWD testing, I can assure you false positives are NOT common. Yes, TWRA should have sent them in for secondary confirmation. But its very likely 95% of their positives would have still been positive with the 2nd round of testing.

They aren't common, but can easily happen if you have sloppy techs. All it takes is one person to forget to change a pipette tip.

This is exactly what Kelly claims - that when they asked for the raw data from Kord group the positives were weak positives next to strong positives on the gel plates.

That's an awfully specific (and easily disprovable) claim for an experienced lab manager to make.

 

[Omega]

If you believe him, he specifically states they restested 9 suspect samples, and all 9 were confirmed negative.

Did they list what counties those negatives were from?

 

[DeerCamp]

Did they list what counties those negatives were from?

In the compliaint he lists the counties and the hunter confirmation number for each.

 

[Omega]

In the compliaint he lists the counties and the hunter confirmation number for each.

So Weakley, Henry, Crockett, Gibson, and Henderson had a positive ELISA test but negative IHC confirmation test and were designated CWD positive, but Jefferson, Hawkins, and Claiborne in East Tn had a positive ELISA test but negative IHC test and not designated CWD positive? As I mentioned before this is grounds for a class action against TWRA from anyone whose business (processors, taxidermists etc) was severely curtailed due to their decision to place those counties into a CWD management zone without positive confirmation of CWD being present.

 

[DeerCamp]

So Weakley, Henry, Crockett, Gibson, and Henderson had a positive ELISA test but negative IHC confirmation test and were designated CWD positive, but Jefferson, Hawkins, and Claiborne in East Tn had a positive ELISA test but negative IHC test and not designated CWD positive? As I mentioned before this is grounds for a class action against TWRA from anyone whose business (processors, taxidermists etc) was severely curtailed due to their decision to place those counties into a CWD management zone without positive confirmation of CWD being present.

As i understand the complaint, they had stopped confirmatory testing during the period where Henry, etc had a positive result.

Kelly claims that at his insistence they later performed IHC testing on the 9 samples, but did not divulge the results publicly even though that would have rolled back CWD designations I'm several counties.

And yes, if that's true they probably considered the coming lawsuits in the decision to keep it quiet

 

[Soft Talker]

Won't affect my deer hunting or consumption of deer meat one friggin bit

 

[BigAl]

I still would love to know how it got here to begin with. I hear that people know it was brought in from out of state via live deer. But who did this and where? And more importantly, when?

 

[Omega]

Well deducing this seems quite simple to me really, as in Wuhan, where is ground zero, and what is around that area?

 

[DeerCamp]

I still would love to know how it got here to begin with. I hear that people know it was brought in from out of state via live deer. But who did this and where? And more importantly, when?

"Here" meaning Tennessee?

I think we have a pretty good bead on that one.

 

[Snake]

No, it really won't lol. This doom and gloom with cwd has pretty much already been debunked. I've spent a week in Wisconsin, whose had cwd far longer than we, and their population is thriving. I agree, reduce the spread, but it's not the end of the deer.

Yes sir I remember when that article came out and it spelled gloom and doom for Wisconsin . Then a while later (much later) read an article about how many deer was in Wisconsin even places where they were a nuisance. Go figure ...

 

[Jcalder]

Yes sir I remember when that article came out and it spelled gloom and doom for Wisconsin . Then a while later (much later) read an article about how many deer was in Wisconsin even places where they were a nuisance. Go figure ...

My dad lives in the heart of cwd in Wisconsin. I remember as a kid when it all started and they paid people to thin the herd. Every year when we visit during ther summer there's more fresh roadkill deer than we have during the rut in Tennessee