fairchaser":3oqfeb86 said:
I'm curious why you think there will not be much change in 2019 LBLman
but all the big changes in behavior are in 2020?
Without writing a book, I can only touch on what I've been looking at here, but,
It's really quite simple:
SO FAR, going into the 2019 deer season, none of the changes have yet effected the standing deer herd.
To keep things easier, let's mainly just think in terms of Fayette County & the Ames Hunting Club.
IMO, there will be more "big" bucks (think 3 1/2 & older ones) available for killing ("harvest" if you prefer) at the beginning of the 2019 deer season than there was at the beginning of the 2018 deer season.
Why?
Because for many years, more and more hunters have been trending towards targeting 3 1/2 & older bucks, and we have had a simple 2-buck limit.
In large part because of that 2-buck limit (at least outside Ames), and because most area hunters also were eating venison, most hunters were killing about the same (or more) female deer as were killing buck deer.
We hunt for a myriad of reasons, but the main reason most hunters in Fayette County will be deer hunting will be for the opportunity to take "trophy" antlers.
But with the new "mindsets" of "kill them all" and "trophy velvet", the standards constituting a "shooter" buck will suddenly go much lower for most hunters.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Fayette County buck harvest actually doubles in 2019 over 2018, and that increase will come mostly from the 2 1/2-yr-old age class.
Relative to the past few years,
there will be only a fraction as many 3 1/2 & older bucks "left standing" going into the 2020 deer season.
There may be more female deer and yearling bucks, but with fewer hunters wanting to kill a doe for the table, and even fewer seeing a yearling buck as having "trophy" antlers, a growing number of Fayette County deer hunters will be "done", at least "done" deer hunting within these CWD counties.
"Done" also may be the non-resident hunters who flooded into the public WMA's in 2019, but don't come back in 2020.
Some will just go elsewhere to deer hunt, some will just start hunting other game (like waterfowl) or start fishing during the time they once deer hunted. Just saying, this will not happen much until 2020.
fairchaser":3oqfeb86 said:
Tell me you don't believe all the big bucks will be killed and there won't be any left next year.
Of course not.
But I do believe reality will be closer to that than you can imagine.
Let's just say the county has been killing 50% of all the living bucks annually that were 3 1/2 or older.
In 2019, that 50% could easily increase to 85%.
So going into the 2020 season, instead of roughly 50% remaining, we have roughly 15% remaining.
15 divided by 50 = 30% as many "older" bucks available in 2020 vs 2019.
Cutting the opportunity for a 3 1/2 or older buck by 70% is enough to make many hunters stop hunting Fayette County?
Keep in mind, we have 95 counties in TN, but Fayette is one of only 8 of these 95 counties that will allow firearms to be used during the August "velvet" buck hunt.
There will be a significant number of TN deer hunters in those other 87 counties eager to travel to those 8 counties allowing the hunting with a gun instead of a bow. These will mainly be "new" summertime hunters who did not participate in the initial 2018 "velvet" hunt (which was archery only in all counties).
Regarding the 2019 "velvet" hunt, "Participation" will sky-rocket in Fayette County.
And, it will not just be TN resident hunters coming to join you.
Since this is all about "trophy" antlers and nothing to do with eating venison,
few of the hunters have concern over any deer they kill having CWD,
other than many just might prefer a buck they kill to have it,
since they could then go kill yet another one as a "bonus".
Think about this.
In 2018, with the ideal that "velvet" is somehow a unique "trophy"
Tennessee put the wheels in motion to make TN a "trophy" destination state for these unique trophy "velvet" bucks.
There were relatively few "takers" because the information just didn't get out quickly enough, and, it was an "archery only" hunt.
But now, Fayette County is a "trophy" destination county, since you can use a gun instead of a bow, unlike 87 of TN's 95 counties.
Of course, the majority of TN's deer hunters may never see much merit in summertime "velvet" buck hunting.
But if only a tiny percentage of nationwide hunters in other states find this appealing,
the good ole days of quality deer hunting in Fayette County become long gone?
fairchaser":3oqfeb86 said:
No one group of hunters tries to kill big bucks more than Ames and in spite of the quality of hunters and the hundreds of hunting hours spent by each hunter, we never get them all.
But your assumption has more to do with the price of beans than anything at all about your county's deer herd (and hunter) dynamics?
Would you agree that less than 10% of the bucks killed in Fayette County would score the Ames minimum score for being "club legal" at the Ames Hunting Club?
One could easily point out that most of the bucks Ames members pass up would be killed outside of Ames boundaries?
And Ames is a big hunting club with about 20,000 acres of prime deer habitat?
Thing is, even with 20,000 acres, Ames only amounts to about 4% of Fayette County's land mass.
What about the other 96%, some of it being "public" hunting lands?
Also, will Ames "accept" the 4-buck (or higher) limit, or have much different criteria than "statewide" or "countywide"?
If Ames LOWERS it's standards to "ANY" buck instead of just those scoring over 120 B&C, allows 2 bucks to be killed via rifle during August, increase the Ames buck limit from 2 to 4-plus, will the buck harvest greatly increase there as well?
Well, at least you don't have to worry about the general public over-running you there.
But most hunters are not that fortunate?
fairchaser":3oqfeb86 said:
If people are still willing to hunt in 2019, then I expect they will continue.
Maybe at Ames.
Actually, I agree with you, just think most will be hunting something other than deer,
or doing more of their deer hunting "outside" the CWD zone.
And lastly, should the Ames Deer Hunting Club adopt "same as countywide deer regs" for 2019
what happens to membership renewals come 2020?
Geez, I still ended up writing the preface to my book.