91 CWD positives!?!

[poorhunter]

91!!!!!! 91!!!!! That seems a little crazy...has this kind of explosion been seen anywhere else?!?!

https://www.tn.gov/twra/news/2019/1/23/ ... -deer.html

 

[poorhunter]

Well, I just did the math and it's still "only" at 10% if tested animals, but 91!?! And now one way up in Madison county?

 

[Grnwing]

When I checked a doe in on Sunday, the biologist said it was up into the 70's and most likely more to come. I imagine the number will keep climbing.

He also pointed out that the doe I killed had survived EHD(looked at the hooves for the sluffing of the hoove, guess it leaves a mark)- which I was not aware of any outbreaks in Fayette county. Doe was aged at 2.5.

 

[PickettSFHunter]

That one in Madison County is well outside of the other cases.....you know what that must mean....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Andy S.]

That one in Madison County is well outside of the other cases.....you know what that must mean....

What?

 

[PickettSFHunter]

That one in Madison County is well outside of the other cases.....you know what that must mean....

What?

I would think that would mean there are also multiple cases in between the outlier and the hotter zone, just not identified yet, unless it was transported there. And who knows if it's really an outlier?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Andy S.]

^^^ I suspect you're correct. I'm ready for intense sampling in all of west TN. I realize that will take time, manpower, resources, and money, thus it's not something that'll be done overnight. I'm afraid the real footprint may be bigger than any of us want to believe. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[prstide]

^^^ I suspect you're correct. I'm ready for intense sampling in all of west TN. I realize that will take time, manpower, resources, and money, thus it's not something that'll be done overnight. I'm afraid the real footprint may be bigger than any of us want to believe. I hope I'm wrong.

Believe you're 100% correct. None of us are going to like the outcome when everything is said and done.

 

[Boll Weevil]

I hope I'm wrong.

You ain't wrong...unfortunately.

Listen y'all (that ain't got a positive in your neighborhood just yet). It's here, been resident for some time, and the known footprint is expanding and will continue to grow. Every hunter in the western 1/3 of the state needs to start developing an action plan. Even if nothing more than "carcass management." I've said it before and will say it again...quit waiting on a confirmed positive in your neighborhood to act.

It's here and those of us in Fayette and Hardeman have watched the ugly reveal from zero to 60, 80, 90 something in a matter of weeks. WEEKS.

 

[JJ3]

^^^ I suspect you're correct. I'm ready for intense sampling in all of west TN. I realize that will take time, manpower, resources, and money, thus it's not something that'll be done overnight. I'm afraid the real footprint may be bigger than any of us want to believe. I hope I'm wrong.

Completely agree. Tipton, Haywood, Chester, Madison need some intense testing post season. At the TWC meeting last week they showed a map of the Risk Based Surveillance that showed the target testing for Haywood was 15 deer and 21 for Chester and they met the surveillance goal. 15 deer does not provide for a comforting spacial distribution. I sure would like to see much more testing especially in the southern part of the county near the Fayette & Hardeman lines.

 

[poorhunter]

I thought when it was a dozen deer that tested positive THAT was crazy high! How many were there before they started intensifying the testing? Maybe the sky isn't falling, and I am a marshwiggle...but this don't look good at all.

 

[ronnycl]

TWRA needs to implement a plan to make it mandatory for farmers to work with the state on depredation permits. The depredation permits should have some attached stipulations going forward requiring mandatory checking of deer heads for cwd analysis. This would be vital information for the state going into 2019-2020 season to set and monitor changes going forward. Proactive instead of reactive approach. I know farmers shoot the deer in non-vitals so the deer run off and die, but they can reduce the number of permits granted at one time. Example 10 permits = 10 deer heads = 10 more permits. No recovery no more permits granted.

 

[Andy S.]

TWRA needs to implement a plan to make it mandatory for farmers to work with the state on depredation permits. The depredation permits should have some attached stipulations going forward requiring mandatory checking of deer heads for cwd analysis. This would be vital information for the state going into 2019-2020 season to set and monitor changes going forward. Proactive instead of reactive approach. I know farmers shoot the deer in non-vitals so the deer run off and die, but they can reduce the number of permits granted at one time. Example 10 permits = 10 deer heads = 10 more permits. No recovery no more permits granted.

I like how you think, but I can promise you, a lot of farmers and farm hands will not think like you and I.

 

[megalomaniac]

Steven, I'm thinking just the opposite about the case in Madison.

In fact, I'm really encouraged that there is a definite zone of extremely high prevalence that is fairly well localized. Sure there will be a positive deer here and there outsize that core zone, but with prevalence rates less than 1% outside the core zone, it will take years to multiply to the point where it will actually negatively affect the deer population.

In addition, finding an outlying positive will further expand the intensive testing zone so we can get a true prevalence rate in that particular area and areas further north/ east.

I feel terrible for the hunters in Fayette/ Hardeman, but the rest of the state can still be fine if we are smart and careful about transporting carcasses.

 

[DRSJ35]

if they are not testing over in east tn or middle tn how do we know it isn't there now.Just something i was thinking about.Cause your not gonna find it if your not looking for it kind of deal.I think in the future there gonna have to set up manned check stations strategically placed.And have somebody there to take samples.I have hunted other places where it was like that.Of course that was WMA. Maybe that's the way of the future.If it was already like that we would have found it much sooner.I'm starting to think it's been with us a while.

 

[fairchaser]

When you look at that map, it becomes pretty obvious where the hot zone is. Those that say it's always been here and we are just now finding it really need to stare at that map and ask themselves if those dots are random or does it looks like a bomb went off and blew shrapnel in a circle. The only difference is that some of that shrapnel is still walking further and further away from the center.

 

[Andy S.]

....... but the rest of the state can still be fine if we are smart and careful about transporting carcasses.

This is the problem. Some hunters will abide by the rules (< 50%), but a lot of hunters will continue to take the short cut to do what is in their best interest at the moment, and what is the most convenient and rewarding to them at the moment, without giving any export regulation, anything or anyone a second thought. As with most things in life, the human race (outdoorsman/hunter) most likely introduced this unwanted problem they we will deal with for many years to come.

 

[JJ3]

if they are not testing over in east tn or middle tn how do we know it isn't there now.Just something i was thinking about.Cause your not gonna find it if your not looking for it kind of deal.I think in the future there gonna have to set up manned check stations strategically placed.And have somebody there to take samples.I have hunted other places where it was like that.Of course that was WMA. Maybe that's the way of the future.If it was already like that we would have found it much sooner.I'm starting to think it's been with us a while.

They did test in east and middle Tennessee this past hunting season. Below is a map that was shown in the TFWC meeting last week that shows the pre-season risk-based surveillance sampling plan with target samples by county. How I understand the explanation for this chart is that if the county is in white or very light color then the surveillance target was met for that county. Counties with deeper colors (orange and red) represent counties where the sampling target was exceeded. The darker the color to red the more the target was exceeded. There are only 3 counties where sampling targets were not met and those counties are shown in blue. The risk based plan called for sampling the border counties the heaviest.

 

[Ahuntin1]

if they are not testing over in east tn or middle tn how do we know it isn't there now.Just something i was thinking about.Cause your not gonna find it if your not looking for it kind of deal.I think in the future there gonna have to set up manned check stations strategically placed.And have somebody there to take samples.I have hunted other places where it was like that.Of course that was WMA. Maybe that's the way of the future.If it was already like that we would have found it much sooner.I'm starting to think it's been with us a while.

They did test in east and middle Tennessee this past hunting season. Below is a map that was shown in the TFWC meeting last week that shows the pre-season risk-based surveillance sampling plan with target samples by county. How I understand the explanation for this chart is that if the county is in white or very light color then the surveillance target was met for that county. Counties with deeper colors (orange and red) represent counties where the sampling target was exceeded. The darker the color to red the more the target was exceeded. There are only 3 counties where sampling targets were not met and those counties are shown in blue. The risk based plan called for sampling the border counties the heaviest.

I would think those numbers aren't near high enough to catch anything early.

 

['borohunter]

At least it has their attention now. I would think there will be more and more testing. Not sure if we really want to know the answer but we WILL know more.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

^^^ I suspect you're correct. I'm ready for intense sampling in all of west TN. I realize that will take time, manpower, resources, and money, thus it's not something that'll be done overnight. I'm afraid the real footprint may be bigger than any of us want to believe. I hope I'm wrong.

I absolutely agree with all of this.

 

[BULL MOOSE]

It would not surprise me if it was at LBL and that was to blame for decreased herd vs. forest canopy./predators.

 

[easy45]

Hardcore sampling is probably coming next season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TheLBLman]

It would not surprise me if it was at LBL and that was to blame for decreased herd vs. forest canopy./predators.

I also would not be surprised should we find CWD at LBL.
But I do NOT think CWD is a primary cause of a lower deer density at LBL.

IMO, the deer density at LBL never got as low as many hunters thought,
but to what extent it was lower, believe the main reason was epizootic hemorrhagic disease.
Same for much of East TN's current deer density's thoughts.

Anytime the habitat changes from less cultivated agricultural crop fields to deer feeding more on more widespread native browse, most hunters will see fewer deer, and that did occur at LBL. It may also very well be that LBL never had as many deer period as some believed, but hunters' thinking "there were more" in part because of what was seen concentrated in (and in close proximity) to the soybean & corn fields.

There was also the issue of going from mainly buck only to either-sex gun deer hunting at LBL.
While I believe this has created a healthier herd, it also made female deer at least a bit more skittish, as well as caused a slight reduction in the deer density.

 

[TheLBLman]

Hardcore sampling is probably coming next season.

Definitely time for that to happen.
My present thoughts are I'll be surprised if CWD isn't found over the next two years in every single county bordering the TN River & Mississippi Rivers from the Tennessee Ridge and/or Western Highland Rim on West to the Mississippi. That means all the Western Middle TN counties and all the West TN counties.

Doesn't everyone agree CWD has been in the current "hot zone" counties for at least several years?

The main difference in those "hot zone" counties may be we did more testing there, verified its presence sooner,
AND it may have started there sooner.

Bottom line is it's only recently (past couple years) that there's been much testing in TN for CWD.
Also wondering if the testers are getting better at finding it?

 

[BULL MOOSE]

I am waiting on the latest update....will it hit 107 this week?

 

[Crappie Hunter]

personally, I think it's most likely everywhere.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

personally, I think it's most likely everywhere.

Agreed

 

[megalomaniac]

personally, I think it's most likely everywhere.

Agreed

Very unlikely unless there was a problem with sampling in years past. 12,000 prior samples, all negative. Will we find an isolated case here and there with more intensive sampling?.... probably. But I doubt there is another current hot zone like the current one in the rest of the state. But I agree with LBL... it will be in all counties west of the TN river in another 5 years

Sent from my SCH-R970X using Tapatalk

 

[AT Hiker]

I'm hoping this is a physiological test of some sorts.....We are going to find out sooner than later that the lab, the samples were processed in, was cross contaminated and samples actually tested positive for high sulfur content or something irrelevant.

In reality, CWD is going to spread East at such a rapid rate that Eastern hunters are going to be having the same anxiety as West TN hunters before we realize it. [emoji20]

Look at it this way; The import laws started to tighten up in just the past few years. Now we have wide spread CWD rates that recently didn't exist.
I'm not saying this is a conspiracy, I'm saying this because I believe the scientist/biologist realize the detriment this prion can cause. They are being super proactive but we perceive it as something different.

TN has been testing for a long time, suddenly it pops up and people gather to believe it's a "conspiracy". Blows my mind; yet I remember that people think the earth is flat or that we live in a computer simulation. Sometimes both.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk