3 bird limit???

[TheLBLman]

Why are so many other states seeing the same decline?
States like Mizzou and KY where the limits have been lower than ours for quite some time if my memory serves me correctly. What about Arkansas? In a matter of months it seems like they went from a turkey factory to almost no turkeys. Hunters didn't kill all of them.

I suspect the single #1 most significant factory has become
Raptor Predation.

The dynamics are continuously evolving & changing.
But raptor predation is now my #1 guess for at least the past several years.

Most "studies" collecting relevant "data" do not cover a long enough time horizon.
Five years is simply not long enough (for a more meaningful turkey population study)
because it's too easy for happenstance to be mistaken for relevance.

The past 2 years, TN had above average nesting success, above average poult survival.
This was largely due to favorable weather, i.e. "luck".
ALL the stars luckily aligned the best they could.

But such happenstance can greatly mislead our data interpretations.
The next couple years we may be "unlucky" with the weather,
and we're back to where we were 3 years ago.

 

[Iglow]

Well, ... I guess we disagree, the increase of coons etc. now to what they were 15 years ago can't explain the loss even if there has been an increase, what are the mass increase of predators eating the rest of the year to sustain there growing population once they've eaten the yearly crop of turkeys? Do they only eat eggs and poults for 2 months? Have turkeys suddenly lost the ability to deal with natural predators that they have delt with since they were dinosaurs? Is every other potential meal for these predators vanishing like turkeys are? Are fawns being eaten to the point that deer populations are in freefall?
As for hawks, owls etc., there is a snowballs chance in hell that we'd ever get the ok from the TWRA, USFW , the public at large or any other player to start killing any raptor of any kind for any reason.

We can't kill the raptors, we can't force people to start trapping, we can't kill enough night predators to make a difference, we can't reshape the landscape to favor nesting success, we can't do any of these things that people are pointing to to reverse the decline! If we could we would have by now.
So do we just stick out head in the sand and keep shooting till hunting turkeys is pointless? Do we keep bitching about reduced limits and seasons to keep our gun barrels hot to the end?
If we don't act on the one thing we have total control over, hunting pressure and kill, one day we will wake up and see turkey hunting in our rear view mirror just like the hunters of a century ago, fading and disappearing altogether.

 

[muddyboots]

Habitat loss and the decline in the number of people trapping come to top of my mind. Also less coon hunting going on, at least in my area. I agree we are probably killing too many of our dominant birds that were safe in the past, but I just can't agree that's our number one problem. Why are so many other states seeing the same decline? States like Mizzou and KY where the limits have been lower than ours for quite some time if my memory serves me correctly. What about Arkansas? In a matter of months it seems like they went from a turkey factory to almost no turkeys. Hunters didn't kill all of them.

This. I think predators are enemy number 1. I own 19 acres. I pretty much catch at least 1 coon every night I have time to set traps. If I skip a week the first night will be multiples. On 19 acres. Not to mention birds. I've noticed twice in the last week buzzards coming in on turkeys. Once is fluke twice is a trend.

 

[knightrider]

Well, ... I guess we disagree, the increase of coons etc. now to what they were 15 years ago can't explain the loss even if there has been an increase, what are the mass increase of predators eating the rest of the year to sustain there growing population once they've eaten the yearly crop of turkeys? Do they only eat eggs and poults for 2 months? Have turkeys suddenly lost the ability to deal with natural predators that they have delt with since they were dinosaurs? Is every other potential meal for these predators vanishing like turkeys are? Are fawns being eaten to the point that deer populations are in freefall?
As for hawks, owls etc., there is a snowballs chance in hell that we'd ever get the ok from the TWRA, USFW , the public at large or any other player to start killing any raptor of any kind for any reason.

We can't kill the raptors, we can't force people to start trapping, we can't kill enough night predators to make a difference, we can't reshape the landscape to favor nesting success, we can't do any of these things that people are pointing to to reverse the decline! If we could we would have by now.
So do we just stick out head in the sand and keep shooting till hunting turkeys is pointless? Do we keep bitching about reduced limits and seasons to keep our gun barrels hot to the end?
If we don't act on the one thing we have total control over, hunting pressure and kill, one day we will wake up and see turkey hunting in our rear view mirror just like the hunters of a century ago, fading and disappearing altogether.

You have your head in the sand if you dont believe predators have quadrupled in the last 5-8 years, everything with sharp teeth and bills are eating turkeys, and yes fawn recruitment had become horrible the last ten years to the point of 28-30% survival! Hunting gobblers isnt the downfall! No poults=no turkeys

 

[Iglow]

"You have your head in the sand if you dont believe predators have quadrupled in the last 5-8 years"
Quadrupled? On a diet of eggs and poults? Everything with sharp teeth and bills have been after turkeys for a thousand centuries. Were the numbers of predators so low in the previous 30 years before the downturn to allow the reintroduction of turkeys? And then exploded in number eating only turkey offspring for a couple of months a year? How did they(turkeys), being so very few in number at each stocking location, ever able to survive after stocking?
Not being disrespectful, just for background/ viewpoint, how old are you?

 

[REN]

Im not sure on the exploded part, however I read a good study a year or so ago about the increase of natural predators and egg poachers like coons and skunks. It wasnt related to turkey per say but I found it interesting either way.

In a nut shell it talked about the overall ecosystem with sprawling America (SE was mostly what they were talking about). How the increase in sprawling to rural areas has dramatically increased the rodent and scavenger species. This in turn resulted in a big increase in snake populations and rodent based predator populations as well as coons and other scavenger type animals with access to lots of new food in all the new developments.

Instead of the agriculture and blocks of land, the system was now made up of semi grown up fields and brush allowing rodents to thrive. Once rodent (including rabbits) population increases dramatically so does everything else that eats them.

Again this study I was reading wasnt about turkeys but it does show a window into other effects and how that trickles down to other species. It was a cool read either way.

I dont personally think coon hunting and trapping (lack there of) is much of a cause or effect the past 15 years cause it wasnt all that popular in most cases anyways. Sure in a given county or area but its not like a majority of people did it. Some of the spots Ive hunted for 20 years trapping has never been done on it yet for years the turkey population was HUGE and then years it was almost null and void. Ecosystems can be VERY fickle and I dont think people see the "whole" picture as the landscape changes.

having said that, I am not a turkey biologist lol. I dont have answers, I just have questions. I do have a forestry and wildlife biology background so I do at least understand some of it.

 

[knightrider]

"You have your head in the sand if you dont believe predators have quadrupled in the last 5-8 years"
Quadrupled? On a diet of eggs and poults? Everything with sharp teeth and bills have been after turkeys for a thousand centuries. Were the numbers of predators so low in the previous 30 years before the downturn to allow the reintroduction of turkeys? And then exploded in number eating only turkey offspring for a couple of months a year? How did they(turkeys), being so very few in number at each stocking location, ever able to survive after stocking?
Not being disrespectful, just for background/ viewpoint, how old are you?

How old i am has nothing to do with what i see evey day. So just for your background/viewpoint im old enough i launched a bunch of nets and turned a bunch of turkeys out of boxes in the 80's

 

[Boll Weevil]

In my observation, in a given localized population, if there's enough egg production to outpace predators there's a reasonable population. Same with any prey animal from field rats to rabbits to turkeys. At the same time I was improving nesting and brooding habitat I was knocking back predators and at some point supply surpassed predation and mortality.

 

[Iglow]

How old i am has nothing to do with what i see evey day. So just for your background/viewpoint im old enough i launched a bunch of nets and turned a bunch of turkeys out of boxes in the 80's

Ok, I I wanted to make sure you weren't a 25yo "grip and grinner" as scn calls them. So you're old enough to remember when there weren't any turkeys, then years later just some counties or parts of counties were open and slowly more were added. You remember when you had to scramble to try to get permission in the very limited places that had a season( usually failing) and traveling here there and yonder to wmas or other places to maybe hear 1 or 2 gobble a weekend. I do and I don't want to go back to that with the seasons I have left.
Beyond our difference of opinion about predators, question is what can we really do about them that would reverse or at least stall the decline of turkeys. We can say " kill the predators " but can we realistically do it? I just don't see how that happens on a scale big enough and for long enough to do anything.
So what's left? What other option do we have ? We can't control what they kill on a large scale but we can control what we kill so that we at least have some season. That's the point I'm try to make. At least we both got to live and hunt in the fantastic years, we just about had seasons close in some counties, I don't want that to be the future.

 

[hbg1]

I don't think this would help very much in the long term. Hunters aren't killing hens nor poults and they are what we need more of to survive and grow the population back.

More gobblers means more poults which in turn means more turkeys. Guarantee you it wouldn't hurt

 

[bowhunterfanatic]

More gobblers means more poults which in turn means more turkeys. Guarantee you it wouldn't hurt

Agree to disagree. Gobblers are useless without hens. It'd help short term but does nothing to stop the long term downward trend.

 

[Bgoodman30]

There is a study being done here on what's called the SRS (Savannah River Site) on turkey breeding. In that area there is no hunting allowed and there hasn't been for a few years. There is also no burning, no trapping, and no habitat improvement on any sort. The only variable missing from there is hunting pressure.

View attachment 221494

The numbers are certainly better than the numbers from other Southeastern sites that allow hunting but only a 32% successful hatch rate still is pretty low.

So that makes me think hunting isn't having near the effect on breeding as we're being told as a reason to move season dates around. At least the ones that are hatching seem to be surviving longer.

For those who know better than me, what is a realistic target to aim for with successful nest hatches and poults surviving the 28 day gauntlet that would equate to successful management? Obviously we all want 100% but that's not realistic.

This is interesting but the only way we can really see the difference if there are 2 SRS exactly the same side by side. One hunted one not.. All of Southeast data can be easily skewed.

 

[PickettSFHunter]

SRS does have burning and timber cutting in the standard pine rotations. There is deer hunting and turkey hunting but the turkey hunting is very limited to handicap/wounded warrior. They had a record harvest last year.

 

[Bgoodman30]

I suspect the single #1 most significant factory has become
Raptor Predation.

The dynamics are continuously evolving & changing.
But raptor predation is now my #1 guess for at least the past several years.

Most "studies" collecting relevant "data" do not cover a long enough time horizon.
Five years is simply not long enough (for a more meaningful turkey population study)
because it's too easy for happenstance to be mistaken for relevance.

The past 2 years, TN had above average nesting success, above average poult survival.
This was largely due to favorable weather, i.e. "luck".
ALL the stars luckily aligned the best they could.

But such happenstance can greatly mislead our data interpretations.
The next couple years we may be "unlucky" with the weather,
and we're back to where we were 3 years ago.

Who said we had above average poult survival last year?

 

[Bgoodman30]

More gobblers means more poults which in turn means more turkeys. Guarantee you it wouldn't hurt

If you observe un hunted flocks you would see that's not true.

 

[hbg1]

If you observe un hunted flocks you would see that's not true.

Where do Unhunted flocks exist? Please explain your thoughts.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Where do Unhunted flocks exist? Please explain your thoughts.

Suburbs. These flocks are gobbler heavy. Doesn't mean more turkeys at all.

 

[ROVERBOY]

The magic number is 2.2 poults per hen surviving until August to maintain population. Anything less than that, and the population is declining.

Yeah, it's normally a small percentage that makes it to adulthood. I read an article years ago, where they did a study in Florida. Out of 100 eggs laid, 2 years later there was an average of 2, 2 year old gobblers.

 

[hbg1]

Suburbs. These flocks are gobbler heavy. Doesn't mean more turkeys at all.

I'd say you are correct in that scenario. I live in the extreme country and don't see those scenarios. Reckon there are ever hens that don't get bred in what I would call "normal" hunting conditions?

 

[megalomaniac]

I'd say you are correct in that scenario. I live in the extreme country and don't see those scenarios. Reckon there are ever hens that don't get bred in what I would call "normal" hunting conditions?

Well, that depends on whether the flock is isolated geographically from the next flock. Turkeys aren't evenly distributed across the landscape like they were back in the early 2000s. They are often in pockets now. Some small areas have an overabundance, and it's almost impossible for a receptive hen to go unbred. But in the marginal areas with 1 or 2 toms and 4 or 5 hens with the next flock being 5 miles away, if the 1 or 2 toms are killed before mid April, then half the hens will go unbred that season.

That has nothing to do with season limits. I'll say it yet again... limits on gobblers has no bearing on reproductive success. IF gobblers are killed AFTER the majority of spring breeding has occurred AND jakes are protected But then you are talking about a May 1st opener... and most of folks aren't willing to accept such a late start date.

SO, since we are compromising with an early start date (Apr 15th), AND we are killing jakes, AND 2/3 of the entire year season kill is frontloaded to the first 9 days of the 6w season...limits become VERY important in ares with marginal populations.