Land Prices

[OutdoorJunkie]

Just wondering y'all's thoughts on Land prices in the middle TN area and wonder if they will ever go back to being somewhat affordable. The land is going for an unreasonable amount and acre right now.

 

[hillbillyfab]

I don't see it going back down. It might stall a little, but I don't think we'll see cheap land prices again. When I was kid I remember seeing and hearing of land bringing a few 100 dollars an acre, that hasn't taken place again that I'm aware of. If it's land your after and you can afford it, I'd seriously consider making a move on it. Now housing is completely different in my opinion.

 

[BSK]

When I was kid I remember seeing and hearing of land bringing a few 100 dollars an acre, that hasn't taken place again that I'm aware of.

Back when I was looking for land in Middle and Southcentral TN in the mid 80s, the going rate for 200-500 acre chunks of land was around $250/acre. A really good piece might bring $350/acre. But the value of non-ag land was primarily based on timber value. The rage of buying land for hunting hadn't started yet. I looked at a 1,000-acre clear-cut in Wayne County that was going for $50/acre. I turned it down. Realtor called back and asked if I would take it for $25/acre.

 

[TheLBLman]

There is a cycle to everything.
Reasons may be good, bad, and unpredicted,
but yes, prices will plummet (just an issue of when & why).
Land, hunting leases, all commodities.

I predict there is going to a cycle of far fewer hunters in the future
as compared to both the present & the past.
But who knows, in a few decades, most people may be hunters again.
In the meantime, there will be a generation or two of non-hunters
inheriting land bought mainly for hunting.
They may be eager to sell it.

 

[squackattack]

They will not, too many people want it. The demand is greater than the supply. People from multiple states are wanting land here. In the past the people interested in buying were mostly local.

 

[TheLBLman]

It's all about supply & demand.
Either can suddenly change.

 

[TNTreeman]

I'm interested in a piece of ground right now but it's higher than I want to spend . I know the guy has to sale it quick bc of a financial pinch he's in. It's hitting the market in the next couple of days and if it hasn't sold I'm going to make him an offer in a month or so. My gut tells me things will go down in the next couple yrs but I'm just not sure. Who knows.

 

[BSK]

For some odd reason, big chunks of land still aren't selling that well in my area. I guess it's just a tad too far from Nashville.

 

[DeerCamp]

For some odd reason, big chunks of land still aren't selling that well in my area. I guess it's just a tad too far from Nashville.

And I think many people can afford 20-40 acres at a reasonable price.

But I would have a hard time throwing down $500K for 2-300 acres. The interest payments alone would make it unattractive at 2-3K an acre, even if it's technically a good deal.

I got very lucky and bought this mostly wood property for about 1K an acre. That was 7 years ago.

Today it is appraising for $3-4K.

 

[Chiflyguy]

And I think many people can afford 20-40 acres at a reasonable price.

But I would have a hard time throwing down $500K for 2-300 acres. The interest payments alone would make it unattractive at 2-3K an acre, even if it's technically a good deal.

I got very lucky and bought this mostly wood property for about 1K an acre. That was 7 years ago.

Today it is appraising for $3-4K.

I'm sure you're holding on to it.

 

[Ski]

I've never seen or heard of land dropping in price. About the only thing I can think of that would drop land prices would be a dramatic drop in human population. And if that happens, the last thing we'll be worried about is land prices. People keep making more people, but God isn't making more land to put them. So count on prices continuing to climb.

 

[Mescalero]

I've never seen or heard of land dropping in price. About the only thing I can think of that would drop land prices would be a dramatic drop in human population. And if that happens, the last thing we'll be worried about is land prices. People keep making more people, but God isn't making more land to put them. So count on prices continuing to climb.

American people aren't making more people. US birth rate has declined 20% since 2007. That's the same story in the western world. Japan is a demographic disaster time bomb. Actually, that bomb dropped already. Same for China.

LBL above is right. Wait another year or two for interest rates, the economy to take care of demand. But long term, buy it for hunting, for recreation, but not investment unless you can earn income from it. With a declining birth rate, how can that be anything but long term deflationary? I don't even think it's an inflation hedge anymore.

 

[Stalkhunter]

I gave up on land to buy, it is just way too much.

 

[Ski]

American people aren't making more people. US birth rate has declined 20% since 2007. That's the same story in the western world. Japan is a demographic disaster time bomb. Actually, that bomb dropped already. Same for China.

LBL above is right. Wait another year or two for interest rates, the economy to take care of demand. But long term, buy it for hunting, for recreation, but not investment unless you can earn income from it. With a declining birth rate, how can that be anything but long term deflationary? I don't even think it's an inflation hedge anymore.

The US census says there are 332 million people recorded in America today. In 2007 there were 302 million. A 30,000,000 person increase doesn't seem like a declining population. Birth rates might be trending down. Population is not.

 

[Mescalero]

The US census says there are 332 million people recorded in America today. In 2007 there were 302 million. A 30,000,000 person increase doesn't seem like a declining population. Birth rates might be trending down. Population is not.

Believe it or not.

The Mystery of the Declining U.S. Birth Rate | Econofact

The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007. If sustained, this could impact economic growth, productivity, and social insurance programs down the line.

econofact.org

It's generational and migratory. Population and birth rate are different. With a declining birth rate, which is fact, you end up with an older population and, in the case of Japan with strict immigration laws, a decline in population. And I'm by no means a proponent of Biden's insanity or dementia on the southern border.

 

[FLTENNHUNTER1]

Paid 1100 an acre for mine and sold it for 3000 an acre 7 years later. If that isn't an investment I don't know what is. I don't see land prices coming down in the future.

 

[Shooter77]

I paid 1k last summer for my 30 acres (been hunting it since 95 and the elderly couple wanted rid of it). A 93 acre farm that's 800 yards up from mine just sold in May. It stepper land with less quality timber sold for $2,450 acre. It was only on the market for 3 days before going under contract. I see more and more out of staters moving here with bigger money to drop on land. They don't care to pay 3-6K a acre for places.

 

[tickweed]

Yea, price a duck tract. I know some that sold for 90,000 plus per acre

 

[Dodge Man]

The US census says there are 332 million people recorded in America today. In 2007 there were 302 million. A 30,000,000 person increase doesn't seem like a declining population. Birth rates might be trending down. Population is not.

I think most of that 30,000,000 walked across the southern border since 2007.

 

[Mescalero]

Paid 1100 an acre for mine and sold it for 3000 an acre 7 years later. If that isn't an investment I don't know what is. I don't see land prices coming down in the future.

What's the investment admonition I'm thinking of, oh yes. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results or something like that.