Land Prices

[TheLBLman]

Home sales have taken a very sudden and dramatic turn downwards in the Nashville market. What was a red-hot market two months ago is down to a trickle. Most homes were selling the week they went on the market and way over asking price. Now homes are sitting without offers.

Most of those moving to TN from California and/or other states,
have already done so?

Had someone "in the know" tell me that covid, economic, and political issues of the past couple years caused many to make the move to TN, either earlier than planned (by 2 to 5 years), or to just suddenly make the decision (not previously planned). There may now be even more of these "new" TN residents moving out of TN (during next 2 to 5 years), than have moved here.

Change is the only constant.

 

[Snowwolfe]

For 40 years my dad kept of telling me how high land prices were and they would come down. Didn't happen then and not happening now. You may find an isolated case here and there and get a decent deal because the kids who inherited it or a couple divorcing want it gone quick but that's about as good as it gets.
Doesn't matter if hunters decline in numbers investors will buy it simply because the supply is limited.
People want there "forever" home then after a few years they want to buy land that adjoins them.

 

[348Winchester]

Wealth is being concentrated into the hands of fewer and fewer people. Land has traditionally been a measure of wealth. Add to that the undisputable fact that the currency has lost about 98% of its value since the Federal Reserve purchased the government in 1913. Another factor to consider is the ever increasing taxes on said land. Also, if one must borrow the money for purchase then the interest paid drives the real cost even higher. As others have stated being in the right place at the right time will account for some good deals but luck is fickle. Overall, the trend for land prices will be upward.

 

[DaveTN]

Most of those moving to TN from California and/or other states, have already done so?

I don't think so. I think its only getting started. It was bad enough when crimes rates were high, but when city councils and local DA's started siding with the criminals and making cities unsafe; businesses won't put up with that. Businesses will move out of those areas, and so will people that can work from home.

But states and the Federal government will be stuck paying the bills and supporting the people in those areas. That means us.

 

[TheLBLman]

Overall, the trend for land prices will be upward.

But we can say that about most everything!
Even including incomes!

The expenses involved in owning land will also be upward?

Valuations of everything over time need to framed in the context of inflation.

Look at the price of a gallon of gas.
Look at average wages.
Look at taxes.

At an average annual inflation rate of only 3%
the "price" of most things (including wages)
should about double in a little over two decades.

At an average annual inflation rate of 6%
things double in only about 12 years!

Unfortunately for any assumptions,
the law of supply & demand are typically unknown much in advance,
and often have more bearing on prices of particular items than does inflation.

Rising property taxes and higher interest rates may create an environment of more people wanting to sell than buy land?

 

[DaveTN]

Medical costs are the big concerns of those retired now. Some day that will be fixed and the big concern then will be property taxes. People that own their homes may not be able to afford the taxes.

 

[Chiflyguy]

Most of those moving to TN from California and/or other states,
have already done so?

Had someone "in the know" tell me that covid, economic, and political issues of the past couple years caused many to make the move to TN, either earlier than planned (by 2 to 5 years), or to just suddenly make the decision (not previously planned). There may now be even more of these "new" TN residents moving out of TN (during next 2 to 5 years), than have moved here.

Change is the only constant.

Interesting point.
The next Presidental election, if it goes to a Republican and Tennessee stays red, people might flee and head back towards Blue states
People are over emotional nowadays.

 

[DaveTN]

The next Presidental election, if it goes to a Republican and Tennessee stays red, people might flee and head back towards Blue states

Why would they do that?

 

[Chiflyguy]

Why would they do that?

It's just spitballin but I'm sure there's a large amount of people that try to change where they came from to where they are. Politics included.
If this next cycle turns into a swing and miss, might be a mass exodus.
Also, the pace is a lot slower than some are used to and it's hard to adjust. Us Yankees are always in a hurry, to go nowhere.
I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Buzzard Breath]

......I think its only getting started......

^^^^This^^^^

I'm starting to see a second wave coming right now. The kids, friends, coworkers of all the Californians that came over the past 2 years are starting to move here now. For the past 2 year, they've been hearing about how great, and cheap, TN is. They're now starting to buy places closer to their friends and family. This is first hand information that I'm getting from my dealings with Buyers and Realtors in the Southern Middle TN area.

 

[TheLBLman]

Make a big distinction between residential homes vs. raw land vs. productive farmland.

Those with the most money (and/or the most land) tend to be older, either retired or near retirement.

We are seeing an unprecedented generational shift in wealth,
and what the older generation most valued,
the younger generation may not.

As but one example, property mainly owned for hunting.
The older generation greatly values this.
The younger generation (upon inheritance) generally tends
to just want whatever money it will quickly bring.

Now, the younger generation may spend much of their inheritance
on a bigger home, may "blow" most of it on folly.
But they may also flood the market with raw land?

 

[TheLBLman]

I'm starting to see a second wave coming right now.
The kids, friends, coworkers of all the Californians that came over the past 2 years are starting to move here now.

There is also the, on the other hand, issue of many here wanting to go where most their kids & friends now live in other states, often back to California.

All of California is not a horrible place to live, as it's mainly the big cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco none of us would want to be. Much of California (like most states) actually has much to offer hunters, fishermen, and any outdoor enthusiast.

Inside a couple years, there will be some major changes.
None of us presently know to what extend or in what direction.

 

[killingtime 41]

Most of the implants think for some reason Tennessee doesn't get cold in the winter. I have no idea why they think that.couple people I talked to said the average temp in winter is 59 degrees. Maybe west TN I really not sure about the temps there. But big difference when you come east. I've seen single digits and below zero many times. With highs in the teens for week. And a warm day being in the low 40's. They were blown away. Not sure where they are getting there info. Realtors maybe or google.