Upcoming Cold Front 11/11-11/12

[Mr.Bro]

Well it's 80 here also but with a nice southwest breeze.
My number of really big bucks seen between 10 and 2 ? I can still count on 1 finger. Deer count today. Zero.
Still beats working.

 

[UTGrad]

Saturday and Sunday are going to be excellent. I'm seeing light winds.

 

[WestTn Huntin man]

All things considered Hunters moving around in the woods will help daytime movement. The Rut, The weather, and people moving around all will help.

 

[Dumbluck]

I'll be in a tree all day Friday, deer are going to move right after that rain guaranteed. There are a bunch of deer getting hit on the interstate in middle TN and I'd like to be on top of the first doe in my area in heat, before the big mature deer get ahold of a doe. They are going to seek in daylight if they don't have a doe.

 

[megalomaniac]

They are going to seek in daylight if they don't have a doe.

Just the opposite.

They are not going to seek in daylight if they HAVE a doe. Lockdown phase just sucks.

Also, the mature bucks know when the does start coming in... they are not going to seek in daylight until that happens. On our cell cams, mature buck activity has dramatically decreased after last week's cold front. The few pics we have gotten are at night. That switch will flip in a week.

Now, I'm specifically referring to mature bucks (4.5 or older). The 3.5s and under are going nuts right now wasting calories chasing unreceptive does.

 

[megalomaniac]

All things considered Hunters moving around in the woods will help daytime movement. The Rut, The weather, and people moving around all will help.

Overall, extra hunting pressure greatly hurts daylight deer movement. Sure, you can exploit other hunters pushing deer to you, but once deer realize hunters are after them, they become much more wary and nocturnal on long distance treks.

 

[Dumbluck]

Just the opposite.

They are not going to seek in daylight if they HAVE a doe. Lockdown phase just sucks.

Also, the mature bucks know when the does start coming in... they are not going to seek in daylight until that happens. On our cell cams, mature buck activity has dramatically decreased after last week's cold front. The few pics we have gotten are at night. That switch will flip in a week.

Now, I'm specifically referring to mature bucks (4.5 or older). The 3.5s and under are going nuts right now wasting calories chasing unreceptive does.

.....right

Mark my words there will be mature bucks seeking in my area Friday. I don't shoot anything unless it's 4 or older. They are not in lock down here, it has not even started scrapes are still fully active.

 

[Boll Weevil]

Forecast shows rain for the next several days in SW TN.

 

[UTGrad]

Most recent post from the NWS Nashville office:

000
FXUS64 KOHX 081148
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
548 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

Stinkin` clouds. They stung me on highs yesterday by a degree or
two, but we still crept to 80 in a couple of spots and tied the
record at BNA. With this westerly flow aloft expected to continue
for one more day, we`re going to be close to record highs again
today. On top of that, it does look like it will be breezier today
than yesterday. This should assist in mixing some dry air to the
surface and aid in warming us another degree or two by the
afternoon. Today`s records are 83 at BNA (2005) and 77 at CSV set
just last year and both will be in jeopardy. As far as any fire
weather concerns, RH values could dip into the upper 30s in a few
spots this afternoon with any mixing that may occur, but we should
remain above marginal fire criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 140 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

Much needed rainfall is on the way, Middle TN. Still progged to
arrive on Thursday and spread across the mid-state Thursday night
and Friday, this slow-moving frontal boundary should provide us with
an average of about 1/2 inch between the two days. Some will see
less, some a little more, with a pretty decent signal that those in
the more extreme drought areas could see those higher values. In
the end, this is not going to be a drought buster, but any little
bit will help right now. Behind tomorrow`s frontal passage,
temperatures will fall back to much more normal readings for this
time of the year.

To illustrate the model struggles right now, the Euro and GFS have
seemingly swapped solutions from last night as to any of us getting
weekend rain. Even if it happens, it isn`t going to be much. Likely
only a couple hundreths anywhere.

Extended guidance shows yet another lengthy stretch of dry weather
starting Monday. While temperatures will remain near normal
throughout the week, it could be Friday of next week before PoPs
start to creep back into the forecast.

&&

 

[jetwrnch]

Two bucks and one doe walked past me this morning. Heat is no reason to stay home unless you just need one. I've found a thousand ways to talk myself out of going. I've also gotten deer in horrible conditions. You just never know.

 

[jetwrnch]

This is an honest question, for anyone , for that matter. How in the hell, can someone say with a straight face, that on their free range, low fence property, they know exactly, to the day, when their 1rst doe is going to come into estrus. Is he physically keeping tabs on EVERY single doe that may be on these properties, at any given time. Absolutely impossible. Just pointing out the obvious, in a low voice, without yelling

No need for swabs, etc. You can tell by the angry scowl on their faces when they're in heat.

 

[Andy S.]

Forecast shows rain for the next several days in SW TN.

I'll take it, and be in the woods as soon as it slacks up.

 

[XCR-2]

I absolutely keep track of my does. A particular doe will hit hot with 1-3 days every single year, more often than not same exact day. Biologists claim it's triggered by photoperiod, the amount of time the sun is up during the day. Seeing as how that is constant to the second from year to year it makes sense.

I have several does that I know when they'll be hot and I plan my hunts around those dates. One in particular hits hot so predictably that I've seen big bucks cruise through the same exact spot on October 30th in the early evening 3 out of 4 years in a row. I killed two of them. Sit that stand October 29th or 31st or even morning of 30th and you won't see a thing. But evening of October 30th and your chances are solid.

Serious question here, but how can you tell when a doe is "in"?

 

[Ski]

Serious question here, but how can you tell when a doe is "in"?

Other than the obvious parade of bucks following her everywhere she goes? If a buck hasn't found her yet she'll be separated from her family group and alone. She does this just before getting hot and then returns pretty much immediately after she's done breeding. I'm unsure if she leaves on her own or if she's pushed out by the matriarch, but when she's hot she'll be alone. Most times especially in the first round of does to get bred, there'll be a gaggle of bucks hounding her before she separates. But as rut progresses and most bucks are locked down with a doe, some does come into heat and don't have an available buck to breed her so she wanders around alone and sometimes bawling her head off like a crying baby to attract a buck. If still she doesn't get bred then she'll go back with her group and will pop hot again 28 days later. And again and again until she's pregnant.

If you hunt the same spot year after year and know that there aren't any or many does being killed, you can record the dates for when you see a heavy chase going on. Some days you sit and it sounds like the woods are on fire because every deer is running crazy and bucks are grunting like pigs as they run. That's because a doe is in heat. Remember that day because she'll very likely be hot that same day again next year if she's alive, and you can plan a hunt around it. To be safe I give a day grace periods each side, so a three day planned hunt. It's uncanny. Nothing I know of is a better predictor that bucks will be moving in the area.

 

[Bgoodman30]

I disagree with your first statement. After 40 years of hunting deer nothing will discourage daytime deer movement like unseasonably hot temps. All other things being equal you will see much more movement on cold high pressure days than you will on hot days. Can you kill a buck chasing a doe on November 13 at noon when it's 80 degrees? Sure but it's the exception and not the rule. Weather matters even during the peak of the rut.

Yep 100%. The difference in movement between 11/8/22 and 11/8/23 has been pretty drastic. No worries it's about to bust wide open. I agree 11/10 on one of first does to come in. 11/11-11/12 is the best every year.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Serious question here, but how can you tell when a doe is "

She'll be the one with her tongue hanging out running for her life…

 

[Andy S.]

The discussion about first doe has been fun to read. There are no absolutes in the wild. If you look at a normal bell shaped curve, there are typically outliers on each side (does coming into estrus). The "first doe" to come in in an area is usually days/weeks ahead of what most want to believe. That is why hunters occasionally see spotted fawns running around in May. That doe was bred in October. Once in my life, in Hickman county, while turkey hunting, a spotted fawn crossed the road in front of me in April. That doe was bred in September.

 

[Soft Talker]

The discussion about first doe has been fun to read. There are no absolutes in the wild. If you look at a normal bell shaped curve, there are typically outliers on each side (does coming into estrus). The "first doe" to come in in an area is usually days/weeks ahead of what most want to believe. That is why hunters occasionally see spotted fawns running around in May. That doe was bred in October. Once in my life, in Hickman county, while turkey hunting, a spotted fawn crossed the road in front of me in April. That doe was bred in September.

Solid explanation

 

[UTGrad]

It's about to get good across the state.

 

[BigDave12]

I absolutely keep track of my does. A particular doe will hit hot with 1-3 days every single year, more often than not same exact day. Biologists claim it's triggered by photoperiod, the amount of time the sun is up during the day. Seeing as how that is constant to the second from year to year it makes sense.

I have several does that I know when they'll be hot and I plan my hunts around those dates. One in particular hits hot so predictably that I've seen big bucks cruise through the same exact spot on October 30th in the early evening 3 out of 4 years in a row. I killed two of them. Sit that stand October 29th or 31st or even morning of 30th and you won't see a thing. But evening of October 30th and your chances are solid.

This is so true. Great example Ski! Like you, I watch my doe herd very closely too. Knowing those does, what area the same does frequent, and paying attention to when they seem to come into heat yearly will DEFINITELY give you a great chance at a good buck. The bucks know this as well - especially the older age class bucks. While I agree weather could affect what the exact time of day is best, the prediction of the day is fairly close annually. Almost entirely exact annually per doe.

I do think that during some very abnormal years, things such as poor nutrition, drought, extreme stress, etc could affect the timing of the exact day per doe but those seem to be anomalies. As long as the conditions stabilize the following year (more normal), they seem to be back on schedule.