Turkey Population Decline - The data I think we need

[Taylor]

Quail decline since 1950s.
I celebrated "hearing" one behind my house yesterday afternoon on a farm that used to have 12-15 coveys.
Fact: They're not coming back.
All just FYI.
Old data here, likely all connected.
Of course, if you hunt river bottom land, you also have to figure spring floods for turkeys.
Change, a constant.

Where have all the quail gone? | Farm Progress

It used to be a rural way of life! Get up before dawn, eat a plate of ham gravy and biscuits, load the bird dogs in a

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[kbradley]

Sorry, but this one will be long. I know we discuss this a lot and I know, most know/think that it is a myriad of reasons for turkey population decline vs. just "the one thing". I think most have figured out that predator/nest predation, and habitat loss play into it, but the more I think about it the more I can't help but feel like we are a huge reason for it. Some of these threads where we are discussing the opening dates this season, whether the limit should be 2 or 3, etc. and some of the comments got me thinking about this a lot lately.

As many know I hunt a lot on the WMAs in my area. I have a small 32 acre tract that we own. There used to be turkeys on my land, but now they are gone. That is mainly due to key habitat loss. There is some hunting now where as when I first bought it I am pretty sure there was none, so maybe a little bit hunting, and predators are everywhere, but the loss of that cow farm to build a brewery dispersed them. However, on the WMAs in a lot of the areas not much has changed. Occasionally a new neighborhood pops up, but that generally means more safe areas and food for wildlife. When I started hunting turkeys in 2010 there were literally flocks of over 100 birds. In deer season it was not uncommon to see 20+ long beard bunched up. Jakes were all over, so that tells me hatches were surviving. Now that is no longer the case. These WMAs are heavily trafficked. There are predators there, but there are a bunch of hunters that are more than happy to have an excuse to pull the trigger, so they get hammered, like all animals. Nest raiders have always been prevalent there. Basically, I cannot see habitat loss and nest raiding predators/predators being the main cause. So while I have been hunting I am thinking, what has changed on these WMAs.

The answer is easy IMO. Our chokes, and shells have changed and the # of hunters has gone up significantly. When I started I was using the only shotgun I owned at the time, a Mossberg 500 capable of shooting 3" shells. My shells were Remington premier magnum #5 lead shot. I had an undertaker choke I got at Wally world for $10. 40 yds. was pushing my luck, and depending on my shooting in the moment 35 yds. may be pushing it. I could go anywhere I wanted most days and never see anyone. I know for a fact in my first two seasons I wounded 2 birds. They flew though so I assumed I had missed. Knowing what I know now, they probably died. Later I shot at a bird in a field on my property that I was certain was at 45 yds, using a different gun, choke and mag blends... he was 65 (I misjudged) and I probably wounded him. The more I think of those birds the more I think how many people have wounded birds and thought they lived, only to go kill another, so essentially they killed x # of birds, but only found Y # of birds, which is what is checked in? Then I start thinking about how many people really hunt turkeys in TN?

So, after all this discussion of the season and limit changes, the pros and the cons, I don't think we will be able to know what type of a difference we are making because we don't have the data form the past, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't start collecting it now for future reference and that data is how many people are actually hunting turkeys? I think we can add a "free" designation that you must have to hunt turkeys, kinda like a migratory bird stamp. Not one that you have to designate when you buy or you can't hunt, but one that can be added with the click of a button on the TWRA app at any time, if you decide to hunt turkeys. Exit surveys are great, but not everyone gets one or will fill it out, so the "stamp" will give us a truer estimate of turkey hunter #'s. With that data we can have a better idea of hunter success vs. total kills and that is a better gauge to base changes on. Simply saying, we killed 40K this year and we killed 35K the year before doesn't tell us anything, if we don't know how many people were out there shooting. If we kill 5k more, but there were 10K more hunters that is not better, that is worse, so knowing the # of hunters is key IMO.

Just a thought of mine for a while . In 1996, genetically modified Roundup Ready soybeans resistant to Roundup became commercially available, followed by Roundup Ready corn in 1998. Current Roundup Ready crops include soy, maize (corn), canola, sugar beets, cotton, and alfalfa, with wheat still under development. I do not know what the affect of these things have on the wildlife or humans but I have to wonder . Also , many farmers are moving to no till farming and they come through spraying and killing any plant life in the way before but usually after planting . Much of that is done in some of the breeding and nesting season . If this has any affect at all on Turkeys and other wildlife , how long does it take to see those effects ? Some will say no negative affects . Of course some said that about DDT . I am sure there are other factors as others have mentioned but, hawks , owls , coons , possums , snakes , bobcats and coyotes were here when we brought back the turkeys . Did they not know all along that turkeys and eggs tasted good ? This is just something I have thought about .

 

[chart1300]

Let me start by saying I don't mean to make anybody mad that farms because I farm part time. I have often wondered when chicken crap started being used for fertilizer from all these chicken farms if there was any type antibiotic or steroid in the manure that causes sterilization? Anybody have any knowledge on that ? Just a thought .

 

[AT Hiker]

I read a reply that said we've always had nest-raiders and predators and they can't be the problem. I couldn't disagree more strongly. As someone who has coonhunted and coyote hunted hard since the 1990's, there are more predators now than ever. Poult hatch rates are the lowest they've ever been. Of course weather has some effect on that, but the increase in nestraiding animals because of little hunting pressure is directly affecting the Hatch rate and surviving poults.
When you see a hen wirh 20+ poults, and 2 weeks later there are 2-3 survivors, what else can you blame?
The farms where we've decimated nest raiders and predators, we've seen the turkey population explode.

How big are these farms where you decimated the nest raiders?

 

[knightrider]

The chicken crap argument is pretty easy to dismiss, areas that have never seen it turkeys are still leaving, if it were poison or round up ready this would have happened 20 years ago. Predators have always been here, yes, but nowhere near the numbers of them that have exploded in the last decade. Every nest raider has quadrupled, hawks, crows, eagles, owls have exploded in numbers like weve never witnessed before. Finding busted nest after nest with egg shells, Watching raptors fly off with 10 out of 12 poulsts, watching eagles fly away with full grown hens, it all sucks.
No poults=No turkeys

 

[MickThompson]

Quail decline since 1950s.
I celebrated "hearing" one behind my house yesterday afternoon on a farm that used to have 12-15 coveys.
Fact: They're not coming back.
All just FYI.
Old data here, likely all connected.
Of course, if you hunt river bottom land, you also have to figure spring floods for turkeys.
Change, a constant.

Where have all the quail gone? | Farm Progress

It used to be a rural way of life! Get up before dawn, eat a plate of ham gravy and biscuits, load the bird dogs in a

www.farmprogress.com

Fact- they will if you have habitat for them

 

[JCDEERMAN]

I read a reply that said we've always had nest-raiders and predators and they can't be the problem. I couldn't disagree more strongly. As someone who has coonhunted and coyote hunted hard since the 1990's, there are more predators now than ever. Poult hatch rates are the lowest they've ever been. Of course weather has some effect on that, but the increase in nestraiding animals because of little hunting pressure is directly affecting the Hatch rate and surviving poults.
When you see a hen wirh 20+ poults, and 2 weeks later there are 2-3 survivors, what else can you blame?
The farms where we've decimated nest raiders and predators, we've seen the turkey population explode.

This makes sense to me. We used to allow some friends to Coon hunt our place for years. We had good turkey numbers. They quit hunting and the Turkey population declined drastically. We started trapping and now we seem to have a very healthy population since the drop off in numbers around 2015. Now, how many coons did they kill when they hunted? I have no clue and if it were to make a difference anyway? But I do know we have trapped and killed 133 nest raiders in 2022 and 2023 thus far. Was the timing of these events we experienced a coincidence? Who knows??? But I have to think it's a major factor into the overall equation of Turkey population loss.

 

[Taylor]

Fact- they will if you have habitat for them

Unfortunately, the quail will never come back on the scale I speak of…no one is going to transform urban sprawl, open, row crop fields with irrigation back to quail habitat. I come from a farm family, and I understand what is to be done to make a living, but I also suspect long term chemicals have likely taken a toll on soil. Again, just a thought. But, long term economics are not going to allow it. I believe the companies that sell some chemicals, will eventually turn around and sell what will be needed to revitalize the soil. Follow the money.

 

[poorhunter]

I read a reply that said we've always had nest-raiders and predators and they can't be the problem. I couldn't disagree more strongly. As someone who has coonhunted and coyote hunted hard since the 1990's, there are more predators now than ever. Poult hatch rates are the lowest they've ever been. Of course weather has some effect on that, but the increase in nestraiding animals because of little hunting pressure is directly affecting the Hatch rate and surviving poults.
When you see a hen wirh 20+ poults, and 2 weeks later there are 2-3 survivors, what else can you blame?
The farms where we've decimated nest raiders and predators, we've seen the turkey population explode.

I have been one to say that nest raiders and predators are not THE problem, and I will stand by that statement. Nest raiders have always killed more turkeys than all other factors combined. The idea that hunting or trapping nest raiders enough to make a long term difference in a population is just not realistic. There have always been vast vast acreages where neat raiders have never been trapped or killed and turkeys survived and thrived just fine. On a single farm there is a possibility to have a short term success with extremely intense trapping efforts but not long term. Predator and prey do not abide by property lines. Poisoning? Now THAT would be successful!
There is something else going on.

 

[kaizen leader]

I read a reply that said we've always had nest-raiders and predators and they can't be the problem. I couldn't disagree more strongly. As someone who has coonhunted and coyote hunted hard since the 1990's, there are more predators now than ever. Poult hatch rates are the lowest they've ever been. Of course weather has some effect on that, but the increase in nestraiding animals because of little hunting pressure is directly affecting the Hatch rate and surviving poults.
When you see a hen wirh 20+ poults, and 2 weeks later there are 2-3 survivors, what else can you blame?
The farms where we've decimated nest raiders and predators, we've seen the turkey population explode.

So how do we reduce coon, possum, yote, and dillo populations? Ridiculously high.

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

I just got home from Kansas

Birds everywhere

Never seen pictures with 20+ coons here, maybe 4-5. He had thousands of coons. I saw three coyotes in two days. He had pictures with 20+ coons in one picture at feeder.

And they've trapped hundreds.

Turkeys everywhere

Preach that to someone else

Nebraska is the same way.

 

[Huntaholic]

Yall want to test a theory? CLOSE THE WHOLE SEASON, STATEWIDE, FOR THREE YEARS. Back when they still gave a crap and were restocking all over the state, the typical time between stocking and opening a season was 3 years. In that 3 years, an area went from having ZERO turkeys to having a turkey behind every tree. If WE as hunters are the issue, close the whole season statewide for 3 years and see where we stand.

 

[GreeneGriz]

So how do we reduce coon, possum, yote, and dillo populations? Ridiculously high.

Trap, trap, trap, trap. And let some coonhunters come hunt on your property and ask them to shoot our everyone they tree. .

 

[GreeneGriz]

Yall want to test a theory? CLOSE THE WHOLE SEASON, STATEWIDE, FOR THREE YEARS. Back when they still gave a crap and were restocking all over the state, the typical time between stocking and opening a season was 3 years. In that 3 years, an area went from having ZERO turkeys to having a turkey behind every tree. If WE as hunters are the issue, close the whole season statewide for 3 years and see where we stand.

Current hatch rates are barely over 1 point per hen. Shutting the season down would be a temporary "fix" and not addressing the predator problem.

 

[GreeneGriz]

How big are these farms where you decimated the nest raiders?

17,21,37 , 105, 139, and 442 acres.

 

[Setterman]

I don't buy the nest raider predator line. It doesn't make sense

 

[TheLBLman]

Fact- they will if you have habitat for them

Fact - they will not.

We may prevent them from going totally extinct,
but they're not thriving even in the best of circumstances (in TN).

 

[TheLBLman]

I don't buy the nest raider predator line. It doesn't make sense

I agree with you, at least in that the nest raiding predation is little different than it was decades ago (across most of TN). I have thousands of acres where the racoon population has steadily declined in large part due to habitat becoming more ideal for bobwhite quail (and most of the hardwoods larger than 12" being cut).

These habitat changes were "supposed" to greatly enhance turkey nesting success as well.

Also, the coyote population is resilient, but less than it was in the past (when we had 10 times more turkeys).

In the areas I'm looking at, turkey nesting success actually appears pretty good. It's the young poult survival that has dramatically decreased over the past couple decades.

So what else has dramatically changed over the past couple decades?

The only thing I can finger is a dramatic increase in raptors, and their rapid evolution to more specifically "hunt" for turkey poults (most specifically during the 1st 3 months after hatching).

Initially, it seems to be the Cooper's hawks slaughtering the young poults, along with all the owls.

If you want to count "all" turkeys (regardless of age), I suspect the Cooper's hawks kill more turkeys than all other predators combined (in TN). They slaughter them when their young.

As the poults become older, it may then be more the larger hawks & owls that finish off most the survivors of the Cooper's hawks. Sure, coyotes, dogs, housecats, bobcats also get a few.

But by fall, the typical hen that may have successfully hatched a dozen baby turkeys now has only a couple which have survived. One of those is at high risk of being caught by a bobcat or coyote. Then come Spring, the bald eagles, bobcats, and coyotes will focus more on adult strutting Tom turkeys.

Just saying, in many areas, the problem is not nesting success, and it sure ain't chicken chit, nor is it a lack of good habitat, nor is it over-hunting. But it does appear to be heavier, more targeted predation by raptors.

 

[AT Hiker]

Fact - they will not.

We may prevent them from going totally extinct,
but they're not thriving even in the best of circumstances (in TN).

I virtually know nothing about quail, some would say I know nothing about turkeys, but I do know brooding habitat is important and lacking in many situations.
I think before, it was sufficient, but whatever is happening is enough where we need to get all these little ones old enough to survive to adulthood.

 

[TheLBLman]

As to the quail going near extinction, I believe the #1 cause of this WAS the introduction of fescue grass. But the #1 reason they will never again thrive (even with vast great quail habitat) is raptor predation.

Fescue equals death to quail, but may be of little consequence to turkeys.