I know it has been shared before, but do you have a recommendation for a website that provides realistic models? One that doesn't require a PhD to understand?
Last time I asked this question I got a link to some super models, I enjoyed that one too.
AT,
This is the page I visit most frequently.
Check out COD Meteorology's Numerical Model Viewer
weather.cod.edu
The 3 best models are the HRRR (short range), NAMNST (medium range), and GFS (long-range). Once you click on one of the model tabs, along the left side will be different types of forecasts. Under the Precipitation category, I use the "Simulated Reflectivity" and "Total Precip Accumulation" the most. The Simulated Reflectivity forecast is the model's estimate of what the radar will look like hour by hour into the future (every 3 hours for the GFS model). And of course, the Total Precip Accumulation is exactly that; an estimate of the total precipitation that will have accumulated hour by hour through the model's duration.
Each model has its strengths and weaknesses. For severe weather, I prefer the HRRR. For general weather, I like the NAMNST. And the GFS is one of the better long-range models, going out 15 days. However, I find the GFS's accuracy falls off pretty fast after about 7 days.
Also remember all weather models are in "Zulu Time" (Greenwich Mean Time). To convert to Central Daylight Time, subtract 5 hours. So when you see a time like 23Z, subtract 5 hours and you have 18:00 or 6 PM CDT.