Dry weather and EHD

[double browtine]

So I don't know how many of you have had a drought like in my area (Montgomery and northwestern Cheatham County), but it has me thinking about another EHD outbreak.
This is the first year since we moved to our property in 2014, that one of our springs has dried up and in not flowing any water. I sure hope we get some rain soon, or we might see another EHD outbreak.

 

[Lost Lake]

I'm with you. The spring on our place is dry, and it rarely does that. If this weather is the trend for summer, I'm dreading what we're gonna find.

 

[SES]

You all shush your mouth. We don't need no EHD talk!!!! Wiped me out several years ago.

 

[BSK]

I am DEEPLY concerned about an EHD outbreak this August/September. If we don't start getting regular rains and cooler weather, you can bet on it.

 

[DoubleRidge]

I've dreaded this conversation....I knew it was coming.... checked a spring last Saturday that normally has water... barely a mud hole.....hope the rains come soon.

 

[BSK]

Pisses me off to no end to look at the long-range weather models and their estimated accumulated rainfall. Over and over, the 15-day model shows rain all around my area, but Humphreys County always ends up being the donut hole in the rainfall totals.

 

[AT Hiker]

Pisses me off to no end to look at the long-range weather models and their estimated accumulated rainfall. Over and over, the 15-day model shows rain all around my area, but Humphreys County always ends up being the donut hole in the rainfall totals.

I know it has been shared before, but do you have a recommendation for a website that provides realistic models? One that doesn't require a PhD to understand?

Last time I asked this question I got a link to some super models, I enjoyed that one too.

 

[peytoncreekhunter]

Does having a good water source lessen the ehd chances? The Cumberland River borders the farm I hunt and also a very good creek.

 

[Oldschool]

My daughter was watching a deer behind her house last week and it just fell over. I went over and it could barely hold its head up. Called the game warden and he said it was starting in Roane County.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

It completely wiped our herd out in 2019. Been seeing tons of deer this year and seem to be back to around normal populations. I just hope many of them have some sort of immunity from the not-so far-away 2019 outbreak. I have been cussing these dry and HOT days!

 

[BSK]

Does having a good water source lessen the ehd chances? The Cumberland River borders the farm I hunt and also a very good creek.

What helps is to a have non-stagnant water sources. Basically, running water. EHD outbreaks occur because of drought and heat. Drought dries up many water sources and deer in large numbers are forced to go to just a few water sources. If those water sources are stagnant water, such as ponds, or worse yet swampy ground, that's exactly where the midges that spread EHD live and breed - in the mud surrounding stagnant water sources. So you have big groups of deer all spending a lot of time around limited water sources that could be midge breeding grounds, and lots of deer get the disease.

If you have running water, especially tumbling creeks, there isn't the mud and stagnant environment needed to grow the midges.

 

[Wrangler95]

I'm praying for rain,we sure need it!

 

[peytoncreekhunter]

What helps is to a have non-stagnant water sources. Basically, running water. EHD outbreaks occur because of drought and heat. Drought dries up many water sources and deer in large numbers are forced to go to just a few water sources. If those water sources are stagnant water, such as ponds, or worse yet swampy ground, that's exactly where the midges that spread EHD live and breed - in the mud surrounding stagnant water sources. So you have big groups of deer all spending a lot of time around limited water sources that could be midge breeding grounds, and lots of deer get the disease.

If you have running water, especially tumbling creeks, there isn't the mud and stagnant environment needed to grow the midges.

That's encouraging information. With the current of the river and the creek flowing to it maybe we will dodge ehd.

 

[BSK]

I know it has been shared before, but do you have a recommendation for a website that provides realistic models? One that doesn't require a PhD to understand?

Last time I asked this question I got a link to some super models, I enjoyed that one too.

AT,

This is the page I visit most frequently.

COD NEXLAB: Numerical Models

Check out COD Meteorology's Numerical Model Viewer

weather.cod.edu

The 3 best models are the HRRR (short range), NAMNST (medium range), and GFS (long-range). Once you click on one of the model tabs, along the left side will be different types of forecasts. Under the Precipitation category, I use the "Simulated Reflectivity" and "Total Precip Accumulation" the most. The Simulated Reflectivity forecast is the model's estimate of what the radar will look like hour by hour into the future (every 3 hours for the GFS model). And of course, the Total Precip Accumulation is exactly that; an estimate of the total precipitation that will have accumulated hour by hour through the model's duration.

Each model has its strengths and weaknesses. For severe weather, I prefer the HRRR. For general weather, I like the NAMNST. And the GFS is one of the better long-range models, going out 15 days. However, I find the GFS's accuracy falls off pretty fast after about 7 days.

Also remember all weather models are in "Zulu Time" (Greenwich Mean Time). To convert to Central Daylight Time, subtract 5 hours. So when you see a time like 23Z, subtract 5 hours and you have 18:00 or 6 PM CDT.

 

[BSK]

It completely wiped our herd out in 2019. Been seeing tons of deer this year and seem to be back to around normal populations. I just hope many of them have some sort of immunity from the not-so far-away 2019 outbreak. I have been cussing these dry and HOT days!

That is my sincere hope: that enough of the deer have had the disease, survived it, hence still have the antibodies.

 

[BSK]

My daughter was watching a deer behind her house last week and it just fell over. I went over and it could barely hold its head up. Called the game warden and he said it was starting in Roane County.

Although it's gross to touch a sick deer like that, the best way to confirm EHD is to look in the mouth. Deer with EHD often have big sores on their tongue and in the roof of their mouth.

 

[Pilchard]

Just saw/smelled 3 dead deer in a stagnant creek bed in Williamson county while riding bikes with my son.

I could only confirm one was an adult deer visually. The other two were just smelled. I could see the buzzards but didn't trek into the woods to look down in the creek.

 

[BSK]

Just saw/smelled 3 dead deer in a stagnant creek bed in Williamson county while riding bikes with my son.

I could only confirm one was an adult deer visually. The other two were just smelled. I could see the buzzards but didn't trek into the woods to look down in the creek.

That's almost certainly EHD. Sick deer have a high fever and go to water to cool off, and eventually die in the water.

During the big EHD die-off in 2007 that hit Middle TN so hard, I was working with the TWRA on their thermal imaging census. Most of the nights I worked, we were in Williamson County, riding the roads at night, documenting deer feeding out in soybean fields. Late that summer, the stench of dead deer every time we got close to a creek was beyond gagging. Never experienced anything like it. The creeks were loaded with dead, rotting deer.

 

[Pilchard]

That's almost certainly EHD. Sick deer have a high fever and go to water to cool off, and eventually die in the water.

During the big EHD die-off in 2007 that hit Middle TN so hard, I was working with the TWRA on their thermal imaging census. Most of the nights I worked, we were in Williamson County, riding the roads at night, documenting deer feeding out in soybean fields. Late that summer, the stench of dead deer every time we got close to a creek was beyond gagging. Never experienced anything like it. The creeks were loaded with dead, rotting deer.

Might be a dumb question but should I report to TWRA?

 

[Oldschool]

Tried not to touch it. I have never seen this amount of ticks on one.