The later in the month it is, the better your odds will be (I think). As others have mentioned, west TN in general has seen below-average numbers of ducks. If you search "Tennessee waterfowl survey", you can look at the refuge counts at the various refuges around the state, sorted by region. We were due an update a couple of days ago. The one around January 1st was done, but was greatly delayed, so I'm not sure if the same thing will happen with the one scheduled for the 15th. FYI, they put "DNS" - "did not survey" on the January 1st results, but then later posted them, so I don't think that designation is significant nowadays.