More meaningless data (but a question)

[BSK]

So I've been tracking my personal trail-camera data for quite some time. Recently, I went back and added in all the data for October for the last 11 years (I had only been looking at my hunting months - November and December - previously. But I began to notice something odd. As most hunters know, on any given property, there will be peak traditional dates for buck activity. This held true for my property as well. The peak date year after year was Nov. 8, which corresponds with the beginning of our peak breeding. And by entering October data, I found a second but smaller peak about October 22, approximately 17 days earlier.

All well and good. But over the last few years, ever since a remnant hurricane moved up KY Lake in 2019 producing 110 MPH straight line winds which levelled much of the forests along the lake, we've noticed a change in patterns. Starting that year, our peak dates changed. So in the below graph I've illustrated the average daily older bucks (2 1/2+) caught on camera from 2013 to 2018 (red line), and then the same data from 2019 onwards (aqua line), with the exception of 2022 which was a crazy year due to the drought. Notice in the graph that the 2019+ data still shows two peaks, approximately 16-17 days apart, but since 2019, these two peaks are delayed 9-10 days compared to the earlier years.

So my question is, anyone ever seen anything like this? In that a major habitat change (downed timber and then logging to remove downed timber) produces a change in what dates see the best buck activity? I've seen changes in herd dynamics do this, but not changes in habitat. Changes in habitat usually just change the number of deer using the area, and which areas are best for buck activity, but not changing dates of best activity. And for what it's worth, the higher overall values post hurricane (2019+) are real. The massive habitat changes have increased the number of older bucks using the property.

 

[Popcorn]

Wow! Interesting. It's a long shot at best but any chance trees lost and or removed were by and large the same variety / specie mast bearing trees that would have affected food availability dates? For example if you remove the majority of a dominant food source then you move the biology related to that ample and nourishing food source to coincide with the next. ie; white oak family to red oak family. Pure speculation
That's all I got

 

[BSK]

Popcorn, 90% would have been mature White Oak because 90% of our forest is mature White Oak. But we still have a ton of those.

 

[TheLBLman]

How does your data coincide with the broader area's deer density (annually)?
Just wondering if the area deer density might be a more significant factor than those straight line winds.

I have no answers, just pondering questions :)

 

[Lost Lake]

Has the doe population on the refuge near you changed much?

 

[BSK]

How does your data coincide with the broader area's deer density?

I have no answers, just pondering questions :)

Our local density has gone up dramatically because of the much improved habitat. Surrounding area, some increase as a direct result of decreasing hunter density and more "picky" hunters, but nowhere near the increase we are seeing on our property. Our fall-season density has nearly doubled.

 

[BSK]

Has the doe population on the refuge near you changed much?

YES! Thankfully, they ended their deer eradication program (Earn-A-Buck). And now that you mention it, they ended the program right about the time we saw this change. Maybe that is the explanation.

 

[TheLBLman]

Our fall-season density has nearly doubled.

Much of that may be improved habitat related?

I also suspect the elimination of "earn-a-buck" doe slaughtering on some bordering properties of significant acreage is a part of this equation.

That "earn-a-buck" annual slaughter's sudden ending was a huge decrease in hunting "pressure", even if the same number of hunters were afield next door. With all the food resources (next door, as well as your property improvements), herd health should have sky-rocketed.

 

[BSK]

Much of that may be improved habitat related?

I also suspect the elimination of "earn-a-buck" doe slaughtering on some bordering properties of significant acreage is a part of this equation.

I think you and Lost Lake on to it. I bet it's the increased local population. I knew our better habitat was drawing more deer, but I hadn't thought about how many more deer now exist on the Refuge.

 

[TheLBLman]

What you're seeing is possibly more about the combination of factors, rather than any one thing?

 

[BSK]

Interestingly, although these dates for peak activity on camera have changed, peak dates to catch buck-doe chases has not. From 2013 until now, peak dates for chases are always Nov. 17 and 18.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

Very cool data. I think you're on it - a combination of things, mainly deer from the refuge and a massive habitat change.

 

[deerhunter10]

Very interesting data. Just proves how important habitat is. Has turned into our number 1 thing to focus on.

 

[kaizen leader]

So I've been tracking my personal trail-camera data for quite some time. Recently, I went back and added in all the data for October for the last 11 years (I had only been looking at my hunting months - November and December - previously. But I began to notice something odd. As most hunters know, on any given property, there will be peak traditional dates for buck activity. This held true for my property as well. The peak date year after year was Nov. 8, which corresponds with the beginning of our peak breeding. And by entering October data, I found a second but smaller peak about October 22, approximately 17 days earlier.

All well and good. But over the last few years, ever since a remnant hurricane moved up KY Lake in 2019 producing 110 MPH straight line winds which levelled much of the forests along the lake, we've noticed a change in patterns. Starting that year, our peak dates changed. So in the below graph I've illustrated the average daily older bucks (2 1/2+) caught on camera from 2013 to 2018 (red line), and then the same data from 2019 onwards (aqua line), with the exception of 2022 which was a crazy year due to the drought. Notice in the graph that the 2019+ data still shows two peaks, approximately 16-17 days apart, but since 2019, these two peaks are delayed 9-10 days compared to the earlier years.

So my question is, anyone ever seen anything like this? In that a major habitat change (downed timber and then logging to remove downed timber) produces a change in what dates see the best buck activity? I've seen changes in herd dynamics do this, but not changes in habitat. Changes in habitat usually just change the number of deer using the area, and which areas are best for buck activity, but not changing dates of best activity. And for what it's worth, the higher overall values post hurricane (2019+) are real. The massive habitat changes have increased the number of older bucks using the property.

I appreciate the info. Thank you for sharing. Sorry I can't add anything.

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

I get a large amount of daylight movement of older bucks at the same time of October. It lasts about 3 days

But my rut peak breeding is first week of December.

 

[Ski]

Interesting graph. Thanks for posting! I too notice the activity spikes beginning mid October but don't notice much change in dates from year to year.

 

[backyardtndeer]

Has the doe population on the refuge near you changed much?

Bet this is the single biggest influence on the changes you have seen.

 

[BSK]

I get a large amount of daylight movement of older bucks at the same time of October. It lasts about 3 days

But my rut peak breeding is first week of December.

That is VERY interesting. have you ever tried to figure out why that October peak occurs? Looked for any specific link to those dates?

 

[BSK]

Bet this is the single biggest influence on the changes you have seen.

Doe numbers have increased DRAMATICALLY. While the Refuge was using Earn-A-Buck to reduce their deer population, hunters were killing anything without antlers so they could get their buck permit. Our local adult sex ratio dropped to 2 bucks per doe. Now that the Refuge has ended their program, the sex ratio is back to more normal numbers. In fact, now we're about where I want to be, about 1.5 does per buck.

 

[Snake]

Very interesting data. Just proves how important habitat is. Has turned into our number 1 thing to focus on.

Habitat is an animals life blood it has to effect them .

 

[Andy S.]

How does your data coincide with the broader area's deer density (annually)?
Just wondering if the area deer density might be a more significant factor than those straight line winds.

I have no answers, just pondering questions :)

Was wondering same thing with NWR doing away with "earn a buck" during this time period.

 

[Andy S.]

Has the doe population on the refuge near you changed much?

My first thought too.

 

[Andy S.]

What you're seeing is possibly more about the combination of factors, rather than any one thing?

This will always be my belief with deer and turkey. As humans, we oftentimes oversimplify things and try our best to find a way to take credit for something (single factor) we believe, when in fact, the change we are seeing is multifactorial. Many times, we do not fully understand every variable influencing the outcome.

 

[BSK]

This will always be my belief with deer and turkey. As humans, we oftentimes oversimplify things and try our best to find a way to take credit for something (single factor) we believe, when in fact, the change we are seeing is multifactorial. Many times, we do not fully understand every variable influencing the outcome.

I completely agree with this. However, being a data-head human, I keep trying to understand how each factor plays a role. Probably an unanswerable question, but I keep trying!

 

[BSK]

I also agree with all those who pointed out the end of the Earn-A-Buck program. That hadn't crossed my mind but has to be a big factor. I haven't finished analyzing all of this year's data, but our doe numbers are going to be big compared to the Earn-A-Buck years. During the peak of those years, I would come up with only 15 or so adult does on my place (and 30 antlered bucks). The last couple of years since Earn-A-Buck ended, more like 60 does and 45 bucks.

So we've got a vastly increased deer population on adjoining lands, plus vastly improved habitat on our land, and that changes things!

 

[Ski]

I completely agree with this. However, being a data-head human, I keep trying to understand how each factor plays a role. Probably an unanswerable question, but I keep trying!

Same here. I'm intrigued with the "why". Any random spike in activity can be spurred by any random circumstance, but the major spikes that repeat annually at the same time are relating to something repeatable, not random. And since it's consistent it can be found & figured out.

The major spike that occurs during the breeding phase of the rut is an easy one. We know deer are busy getting busy, and fawn birthing times consistently confirm it. Mid October spikes aren't as easy to narrow down. It's not breeding. So what else is going in the deer woods at that time? Trees are going dormant, acorns starting to fall, forbs & weeds turn woody and die, crops being harvested, cover getting thinner, does with their fawns grouping back up, and bucks with testosterone surging are dispersing into fall ranges. There are a lot of things going on simultaneously that could trigger the social response we see as a spike in buck activity. All could certainly contribute but one thing has to be the catalyst and in order for the spike in activity to happen same time every year, the catalyst also has to happen same time every year.

I doubt it's does, although they for sure are a factor. It can't be acorns because that fluctuates year to year. It can't be crop harvest because that too fluctuates. What we're left with is plant dormancy and buck testosterone surges, which both occur according to photoperiod. Those are the two things that happen same time every year like clockwork. So which is the culprit?

 

[BSK]

Excellent post Ski. I would love to figure out that October peak.

And let me reiterate just how locked in our rut is. VERY predictable and on about the same days every year. Below is a graph of the average number of buck-doe chases on camera per day for the last 11 years. Notice how sharply defined our rut is and how we see very specific dates of peak chasing over the years. And just for reference, that November 17 peak is when we see the big boys chasing. The earlier peak, around Nov. 4, usually involve yearling and 2 1/2 year-old bucks. But the big boys are chasing Nov 16-21. The below video is from this year, the 17th. Wish I had been in the condo that morning!

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

I haven't ever figured it out. No rhyme or reason really. I'm talking about late morning, mid afternoon, early evening not the typical daylight and dusk movement.

Even this year with the largest acorn crop in history it happened. Most cameras on plots for easy access. Even with plots usage really low this year.

I will say, it seems to mirror when scrapes really start opening up including the bigger rubs showing up on field edges. Maybe something to do with daylight at that moment bumping their testosterone maybe?

 

[BSK]

I haven't ever figured it out. No rhyme or reason really. I'm talking about late morning, mid afternoon, early evening not the typical daylight and dusk movement.

Even this year with the largest acorn crop in history it happened. Most cameras on plots for easy access. Even with plots usage really low this year.

I will say, it seems to mirror when scrapes really start opening up including the bigger rubs showing up on field edges. Maybe something to do with daylight at that moment bumping their testosterone maybe?

Interesting idea AlabamaSwampster. I keep records on the location and date of every scrape I find. I'll check to see if there was a surge in plot-edge scrapes around that date.