Interesting article on deer kill statistics

[scn]

Some interesting stats in this article:

NDA’s Deer Report Finds 88% of U.S. Whitetail Harvest Occurs on Private Land

Texas had the highest rate of private-land deer harvest at 99%. Massachusetts reported the highest public-land harvest at 43%, according to NDA's Deer Report.

deerassociation.com

 

[TheLBLman]

If you download the full 2023 report, you can see more detailed numbers, particularly in regard to Tennessee.

Please NOTE the 2023 "report's" most recent annual data if for the 2021 deer season (not 2022)!

A few standouts . . . . . . . . In 2021 . . . . .

Tennessee deer hunters took 40 antlered bucks per 100 deer hunters.
This compares to a Southeast U.S. average of 48 antlered bucks per 100 deer hunters.

Of the antlered bucks taken in TN, 68% were 2 1/2 yrs old or younger.
In the Southeast U.S. overall, only 44% were 2 1/2 yrs old or younger.
Mississippi had the lowest percentage of 1 1/2 yr-old bucks in the Southeast with 10%.
Tennessee was closer to the Southeast average with 22% of antlered bucks being 1 1/2 yr olds.

As an aside, 1 1/2 yr-old bucks are also referred by most biologists as "yearlings",
while "button" bucks are properly referred to as male fawns.
Many hunters erroneously refer to button bucks and older fawns as yearlings (all deer are fawns until they reach the age of 1 year old).

Of the antlered bucks taken in TN, 32% were 3 1/2 yrs old, or older.
The Southeast States' average was 56% taken being 3 1/2 yrs old or older.

According to the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, nationwide, only 13% of all hunting occurs on "public" land, so no surprise, most of the "harvested" deer are taken on "private" lands?

 

[TheLBLman]

As to which type "weapons" were used to "harvest" deer,
generally speaking, those states with long gun seasons are going to have a higher percentage with guns than with archery.

A good state-to-state comparison can be made between KY & TN,
where KY has a relatively short gun season, yet the archery season in KY is actually longer than TN's.

In 2021, the percentage of deer taken with archery in TN was 13%.
In 2021, the percentage of deer taken with archery in KY was 21%.

In 2021, the percentage of deer taken with archery in SC was only 8%.
No surprise, since SC is the state with the longest gun deer season.

 

[TheLBLman]

Again, by downloading the complete 2023 report, there is a wealth of information & trending data, going back years.

One thing that stands out to me is what was considered . . . . . .

The Top 3 Issues Impacting Deer Management Programs:

1) Chronic Wasting & Other Diseases

2) Hunter Access

3) The Declining Number of Deer Hunters

IMO, all 3 of these issues are very intertwined,
each effecting the others, and often difficult to figure which came first,
like the chicken or the egg.

Probably should add #4 as being the hunting regs being changed in reaction to Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD)? Perhaps the treatment is worse than the disease?

 

[Buzzard Breath]

What jumps out at me is difference in the age structure versus number of antlered bucks killed in 2017, 2018 & 2019

2017; 77,408 antlered bucks; 40% 1.5 years old; 40% 2.5 years old; 20% 3.5 yrs
2018; 74,594 antlered bucks; 29% 1.5 years old; 46% 2.5 years old; 25% 3.5 yrs
2019; 71,866 antlered bucks; 26% 1.5 years old; 46% 2.5 years old; 28% 3.5yrs

It looks like we're shooting slightly less bucks, but older bucks. was 2018 the first year of the 2 buck rule?

 

[BSK]

It looks like we're shooting slightly less bucks, but older bucks. was 2018 the first year of the 2 buck rule?

No. The 2 buck rule went into effect quite a while ago. And once it was implemented, yearling buck kills increased instead of decreased.

This trend in older buck kills across the country has nothing to do with bag limits and everything to do with hunter education, choice and buck availability.

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

As more and more people get more and more selective the buck harvest will decline.

As they scare more people away with the CWD bull it'll go down. I know several that have quit due to the over regulation due to CWD. Many residents who hunt in their own county in both Alabama and Tennessee

 

[killingtime 41]

If you download the full 2023 report, you can see more detailed numbers, particularly in regard to Tennessee.

Please NOTE the 2023 "report's" most recent annual data if for the 2021 deer season (not 2022)!

A few standouts . . . . . . . . In 2021 . . . . .

Tennessee deer hunters took 40 antlered bucks per 100 deer hunters.
This compares to a Southeast U.S. average of 48 antlered bucks per 100 deer hunters.

Of the antlered bucks taken in TN, 68% were 2 1/2 yrs old or younger.
In the Southeast U.S. overall, only 44% were 2 1/2 yrs old or younger.
Mississippi had the lowest percentage of 1 1/2 yr-old bucks in the Southeast with 10%.
Tennessee was closer to the Southeast average with 22% of antlered bucks being 1 1/2 yr olds.

As an aside, 1 1/2 yr-old bucks are also referred by most biologists as "yearlings",
while "button" bucks are properly referred to as male fawns.
Many hunters erroneously refer to button bucks and older fawns as yearlings (all deer are fawns until they reach the age of 1 year old).

Of the antlered bucks taken in TN, 32% were 3 1/2 yrs old, or older.
The Southeast States' average was 56% taken being 3 1/2 yrs old or older.

According to the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, nationwide, only 13% of all hunting occurs on "public" land, so no surprise, most of the "harvested" deer are taken on "private"

 

[killingtime 41]

What percentage of huntable land in Tn is public vs private. I'm sure if 90 percent is private than its kind of obvious private land kills would be way higher. Excluding lands out west. Question could be asked for anywhere for that matter. In states that have higher public land kills would be higher for public Im sure.

 

[TX300mag]

I don't know how Texas comes up with their data when Hunter kills aren't reported.

 

[Ski]

I don't know how Texas comes up with their data when Hunter kills aren't reported.

I dont know how any of them do. Harvest reporting is pretty vague. Most only require basic antler specifics. Surely they aren't extrapolating age info from that. Aside from buttons there's no way to know buck age from antler specs.

 

[Texan11285]

Killingtime 41 nailed it. The majority of land in Texas is private so maybe they just figured that. Y'all priced those private leases in Texas?

 

[Bone Collector]

I don't know how Texas comes up with their data when Hunter kills aren't reported.

I dont know how any of them do. Harvest reporting is pretty vague. Most only require basic antler specifics. Surely they aren't extrapolating age info from that. Aside from buttons there's no way to know buck age from antler specs.

I wondered the same thing too. I am wondering if in the report the divulge that they did a survey at physical check stations and then used that sample size for the study. Of course the next question is what is the sample size...

 

[Ski]

I wondered the same thing too. I am wondering if in the report the divulge that they did a survey at physical check stations and then used that sample size for the study. Of course the next question is what is the sample size...

And who did they sample? I've been deer hunting 40yrs public and private & never once had a biologist inspect my kill. I did with an elk in NM, but never a deer.

 

[younggun308]

I dont know how any of them do. Harvest reporting is pretty vague. Most only require basic antler specifics. Surely they aren't extrapolating age info from that. Aside from buttons there's no way to know buck age from antler specs.

If they have evidence-based priors for the percentage of deer with 4+ points that are 3.5+ years old in the population, and an estimate of how many of them are killed by hunting, they probably project this onto kill reports.

Wouldn't bet against it being a Bayesian model, where the results are a couple a ranges of estimates for what % of antlered deer are yearlings, 2.5, and 3.5+, with different confidence intervals.
My dissertation uses something similar to estimate election fraud in Russia, to get a "true" estimate of voter turnout (as opposed to the falsified numbers), votes for each party, etc.
But that's based on assumptions about what's "reasonable," for lack of a better term. I would imagine those assumptions are based on exhaustive surveys in smaller areas. Then extrapolated.

(Disclosure: I didn't read the article, sorry)

 

[Ski]

If they have evidence-based priors for the percentage of deer with 4+ points that are 3.5+ years old in the population, and an estimate of how many of them are killed by hunting, they probably project this onto kill reports.

Wouldn't bet against it being a Bayesian model, where the results are a couple a ranges of estimates for what % of antlered deer are yearlings, 2.5, and 3.5+, with different confidence intervals.
My dissertation uses something similar to estimate election fraud in Russia, to get a "true" estimate of voter turnout (as opposed to the falsified numbers), votes for each party, etc.
But that's based on assumptions about what's "reasonable," for lack of a better term. I would imagine those assumptions are based on exhaustive surveys in smaller areas. Then extrapolated.

(Disclosure: I didn't read the article, sorry)

I imagine something like that is exactly what's going on. I don't know of any statewide check stations with biologists aging deer killed on both public and private lands. So they've got to be estimating numbers somehow. Having run many, many trails cameras year round for many, many years, I have doubts that anybody could accurately estimate buck ages by using tine count. It's such an individually random thing from one deer to the next. Case in point, one buck may have 8pts at 1.5yrs & have 8pts it's entire life. Another buck may be a spike at 1.5yrs & progressively add tines each successive year. Both those situations happen often enough that predicting the odds would be a coin toss at best. To publish statistics as gospel I'd think there should be concrete data to support it. Anything shy of that would inevitably be misleading.

 

[younggun308]

I imagine something like that is exactly what's going on. I don't know of any statewide check stations with biologists aging deer killed on both public and private lands. So they've got to be estimating numbers somehow. Having run many, many trails cameras year round for many, many years, I have doubts that anybody could accurately estimate buck ages by using tine count. It's such an individually random thing from one deer to the next. Case in point, one buck may have 8pts at 1.5yrs & have 8pts it's entire life. Another buck may be a spike at 1.5yrs & progressively add tines each successive year. Both those situations happen often enough that predicting the odds would be a coin toss at best. To publish statistics as gospel I'd think there should be concrete data to support it. Anything shy of that would inevitably be misleading.

This year at a couple points during the season TWRA biologists set up shop at processors across the state to sample. Usually on Saturdays (when more hunters than ever, private or public land, are afield).

It's not perfect, but they are collecting more fine-grained data in real time.

 

[Snake]

Just curious to how they collect this data ? I used the online method and there was no place to record the age of a buck which if there was it would just be a guesstimate. These data points must be were the game wardens checked the deer in so these statistics could be off somewhat.

 

[BSK]

I used to stay up-to-date on how each state collected their statistics. ALL were estimates based on samples. Some were good. Others were not. And that's why I don't give the QDMA's/NDA's state statistics much merit. I'm not saying all the data is bad, but some states have decent data and others don't. They are not comparable.

That said, I haven't looked at each state's data collection procedure in several years. But I'll bet a goodly sum the data has not gotten better.

 

[beefydeer]

They don't have a clue what the stats are in Tennessee