TboneD,
I hope you don't mind, but I would like to answer in this thread a question you asked elsewhere, because it is relevant to this discussion. Your question:
TboneD":2xh4tp5x said:
Regarding your last paragraph and Unit L, I'm of the non-expert opinion that, although the high antlerless limit has rewarded previous high-density areas with healthier deer, OVERALL, it's not the best way to manage the deer herd. From what I've learned of the deer restoration years, deer densities can vary GREATLY between rather close geographical areas, and poaching is cited as one of the reasons. So if the Unit L antlerless limit can result in over-harvest in certain areas as well, why do you think the Commission continues to apply it to so many counties and almost half of our public ground in Unit L, despite what EHD did to the deer...and also the coyote population growth? (By the way, there's an indirect reference to this in this month's Field of Stream article, "The State of the Deer Union".) Do you anticipate a change in Unit L?
I really have no idea if changes will be made to Unit L's 3 doe/day limit. Honestly, I would have no problem if they did so, simply for appearance's sake. The truth of the matter is, hunters aren't really taking advantage of the high doe limits. Look at the harvest numbers. Although for years the annual limit on does has been 250+ but only 3 bucks, the kill numbers male versus female have held pretty close to equal over that time period. This is important when considering that if the number of bucks being killed is not excessive, then the same number of does being killed isn't excessive. And the easiest symptom of overharvest to measure is decreasing age structure. As we saw in the past, when bucks were over-exploited, the buck age structure declined. Now, in Unit L, the buck age structure is increasing, not decreasing, so we are not over-harvesting bucks. So if the number of bucks being killed per year in Unit L is not excessive, then how can the same number of does being killed be excessive?
That said, I have no doubt what-so-ever that does have been overharvested in localized pockets in Unit L. The quickest way to check for that in a local area is to look at the age structure of any harvested does. Are there any mature (4 1/2+) females in the harvest? If there are not, over-harvest is a possibility. On properties where I KNOW female over-harvest occurred, killed doe ages shifted HEAVILY to the youngest age-class. In essence, the vast majority of does being killed each year fell to 2 1/2 and younger does. Mature (4 1/2+) does vanished from the harvest. Once doe harvests were considerably reduced on these properties, within 3 or 4 years, mature does began to show up in the harvest again. I can't stress enough to hunters/managers what a powerful tool harvest doe age structure is for monitoring female over-harvest.
As for some of the other things mentioned in the F&S article, I don't believe TN is seeing habitat loss at a significant enough level to effect deer densities. For me, the big question is predation. Unquestionably, coyotes are impacting fawn survival rates. The real question is, how much? I'm not buying into the idea that coyotes are the reason many have been seeing a long stretch of low fawn recruitment numbers across the TN. I say this because, at least in my part of TN, coyotes have been present in high numbers for 30 years. Yet this problem with fawn survival is somewhat new. In fact, it started right after the big 2007 EHD die-off. 100-120% fawn recruitment numbers were commonplace in Middle TN in the early 2000s, but have fallen WAY off since 2007, and still have not rebounded. They are getting better, but are still running in most places in the 40-75% range. Why they are still low is a complete mystery to me. Coyotes and bobcats play a role, but I just don't buy that somehow coyotes have suddenly started taking far more fawns than they used to. That's a biological possibility, but I've seen no solid theory on why that might occur.
In some areas outside of TN, coyotes are definitely playing a MAJOR role in fawn mortality. I have seen very good data from parts of the Deep South indicating localized fawn losses of 80% to coyotes alone. However, in other Southeastern studies, coyote predation of fawns has been shown to be negligible. So in some areas, coyotes are a MAJOR problem. In others, not much.
