BSK: Reasonable expectations

[Hunter 257W]

I'm just gonna say Cades Cove, Ft Campbell, Presidents Island , and MLAAP. Its reasonable to to believe I can kill 130" every time I climb into a stand anywhere in the state. Regs that promote antler potential is the constant in each

What does it mean when you specify 4 specific locations then say you can kill a 130" buck anywhere in the state? What do those specific locations mean? Also to say you can do that ANYWHERE is a bit optimistic. Of course purely on a mathematical basis it is possible to but to truly expect it to happen anywhere and everywhere is going to lead to a mighty discouraged hunter after a few years of not doing so even once.

 

[BSK]

I'm just gonna say Cades Cove, Ft Campbell, Presidents Island , and MLAAP. Its reasonable to to believe I can kill 130" every time I climb into a stand anywhere in the state. Regs that promote antler potential is the constant in each

Cades Cove? So the TWRA should manage the state like Cades Cove? OK, no more deer hunting, ever. There ya' go, enjoy the big buck watching.

Presidents Island? OK, only a handful of people can hunt one or two weekends per year, and only 9 points or better, and only hunt in a highly productive agricultural floodplain.

Honestly, I hate having to revert to my a-hole persona, but come on guys, get a grip on reality.

 

[scn]

I'm just gonna say Cades Cove, Ft Campbell, Presidents Island , and MLAAP. Its reasonable to to believe I can kill 130" every time I climb into a stand anywhere in the state. Regs that promote antler potential is the constant in each

Cades Cove? So the TWRA should manage the state like Cades Cove? OK, no more deer hunting, ever. There ya' go, enjoy the big buck watching.

Presidents Island? OK, only a handful of people can hunt one or two weekends per year, and only 9 points or better, and only hunt in a highly productive agricultural floodplain.

Honestly, I hate having to revert to my a-hole persona, but come on guys, get a grip on reality.

Bryan, don't beat your head against the wall too hard. Just remember that when you first came on this site that you had some folks that truely believed that deer kept their antlers all year.

You have done a great job of educating those that are capable of learning. But, it is hard to fight the Outdoor Channel University.

 

[TN Whitetail Freak]

My comment was purely a statement that reflects the fact that TN can and will hold 130" deer with regularity if the deer was allowed to live I.e.showing restraint and managing a piece of ground, allowing no hunting, or regs restriction whatever the case may be....my point its reasonable to believe the potential is reality. By the way love the indirect assumptions I'm unable to learn and stuck in fantasy outdoor channel world SCN haven't had cable in 10 yrs

 

[WRbowhunter]

I think everyone will agree that there is potential for every bit of the state to have 130" plus deer on most properties. However at what cost. Do we stop deer hunting for 5 years to let that happen? Do we limit hunting to 3 days a year to let that happen? I'm not willing to do that. If you are and have your own property you can do that today. There is nothing stopping you. If we also agree with BSK conclusion that in a healthy herd 10% of the bucks will be Mature. Any idea out of that 10% in most of TN would the antlers be 130 " or higher ( that's a question as I don't know the answer). My point being do we want to set our regulations on deer hunting for the killing ( I don't harvest deer only crops) of 5% of the total deer population?

 

[TX300mag]

I think everyone will agree that there is potential for every bit of the state to have 130" plus deer on most properties. However at what cost. Do we stop deer hunting for 5 years to let that happen? Do we limit hunting to 3 days a year to let that happen? I'm not willing to do that. If you are and have your own property you can do that today. There is nothing stopping you. If we also agree with BSK conclusion that in a healthy herd 10% of the bucks will be Mature. Any idea out of that 10% in most of TN would the antlers be 130 " or higher ( that's a question as I don't know the answer). My point being do we want to set our regulations on deer hunting for the killing ( I don't harvest deer only crops) of 5% of the total deer population?

You nailed it right there.

 

[Hunter 257W]

Everybody seems to think that deer are like trees, "just let 'em grow and they'll all eventually reach 100 feet tall". Most bucks will never ever reach 130 inches. Even if you put them up in a pen and fed them the best of feed, played "Baby Einstein" cd's for them, gave them daily back rubs and let them have their choice of the prettiest does, most just will not grow 130 inch antlers. 130 inch antlers are something special regardless of the fact that there are more of them now than ever before. The still represent only a very small % of all bucks. It just irritates me when hunters constantly want to diminish the significance of a trophy merely because a bigger deer has been killed somewhere.

And I also still say that most properties can't achieve 130" bucks with regularity no matter what. I'd say the average property owned by hunters is way less than 100 acres. You can't control anything on land that small. I've shot 1/2 buck per year since 2002 and I've yet to get a picture of any buck over about 100 inches. It's not as simple as passing young deer a few years and watching them grow. I'm just thrilled that I've finally gotten multiple 3 years olds each fall.

 

[Mike Belt]

All properties are not created equal but overall I think 130" bucks could be killed on most properties and it wouldn't take not hunting those properties to achieve that. It WOULD take hunting differently than most are willing to do. There are no shortcuts and there's no magical fairy dust. Not to beat a dead horse again but you can't shoot all the young or even marginal bucks to get there. Without trigger restraint a few might fall through the cracks and make the cut but the first step towards leaning that expectation towards "realistical" is advancing buck age. PERIOD! There are other things that can be done along the way that benefit the deer population and the better off the deer, the better off the hunter, but it starts with the trigger.

The biggest obstacle is that most properties don't encompass the acreage to maintain any control. The hunters on a 300 acre parcel may be doing everything in their power to achieve these results but if the bordering property isn't on the same page they can negate almost every step taken. Keyword here is ALMOST. The more appealing the property is to the deer the better odds you have of attracting those bucks that do slip through the cracks.

There is no one size fits all but for those that share in this interest become pro-active. Search out those that may be like minded; land owners or existing clubs, etc. that border or near border your hunting area. Even the land owners that don't allow hunting can be included. Advertise. Co-op at the co-op. A common goal between neighbors may net common results. There is no better time than starting now months away from hunting season. If it pans out it might create a snowball effect picking up more acreage along the way.

 

[TN Larry]

BSK,

I may be crazy, but if I remember correctly a few years ago, you had done some research by county where you had a formula to come up with the average mature buck score expectation from that particular region. I can't remember what the data set for the county was and where you got it. I may be dreaming but was pretty sure that you did that. I do remember that my reasonable average expectation for my region for a mature buck was 110" which is about right. The doesn't mean that there isn't quite a few 130" roaming around as there are. However, with a 110" average, for every 130" deer there has to be a 90" deer of the same age class to keep the average and so on, so forth.

For me, it's all about realizing what my area can produce on a regular basis.

 

[Lost Lake]

I think everyone will agree that there is potential for every bit of the state to have 130" plus deer on most properties. However at what cost. Do we stop deer hunting for 5 years to let that happen? Do we limit hunting to 3 days a year to let that happen? I'm not willing to do that. If you are and have your own property you can do that today. There is nothing stopping you. If we also agree with BSK conclusion that in a healthy herd 10% of the bucks will be Mature. Any idea out of that 10% in most of TN would the antlers be 130 " or higher ( that's a question as I don't know the answer). My point being do we want to set our regulations on deer hunting for the killing ( I don't harvest deer only crops) of 5% of the total deer population?

Great post.

 

[BSK]

My comment was purely a statement that reflects the fact that TN can and will hold 130" deer with regularity if the deer was allowed to live I.e.showing restraint and managing a piece of ground, allowing no hunting, or regs restriction whatever the case may be....my point its reasonable to believe the potential is reality. By the way love the indirect assumptions I'm unable to learn and stuck in fantasy outdoor channel world SCN haven't had cable in 10 yrs

TN Whitetail Freak,

Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your post, but the point I'm trying to make--and the point scn first proposed for this thread--is the difference between realistic potential and realistic expectations. "Potential" is what the area can produce. "Expectations" are what hunters will kill year in and year out. The two can be very different. Now I do agree that many if not most locations in TN can produce 130-class bucks. However, the question is whether the hunters can kill those bucks year in and year out. Some can. Some do not now, but might be able to if their skills were seriously upgraded, and/or they make the commitment to do so. And that last part is critical. Some have the skills necessary but simply don't want to make the commitment, for any number of legitimate reasons. But a discussion of "realistic expectations" must include what a specific group of hunters can kill year in and year out given their current skill/dedication level. That will not be the same between groups of hunters. Take two sets of hunters and have them hunt the same property. The realistic expectations for those two groups may be different, based on their skill/dedication level.

 

[BSK]

BSK,

I may be crazy, but if I remember correctly a few years ago, you had done some research by county where you had a formula to come up with the average mature buck score expectation from that particular region. I can't remember what the data set for the county was and where you got it. I may be dreaming but was pretty sure that you did that. I do remember that my reasonable average expectation for my region for a mature buck was 110" which is about right. The doesn't mean that there isn't quite a few 130" roaming around as there are. However, with a 110" average, for every 130" deer there has to be a 90" deer of the same age class to keep the average and so on, so forth.

For me, it's all about realizing what my area can produce on a regular basis.

Although the formula isn't perfect, it's amazing how well it works out in many cases. And the formula is simply to use 75% of the top 5 bucks for the area. Basically, average the top 5 bucks for the county in the TN Registry, and multiply that average by 0.75. For example, if the top 5 bucks average out to 160, multiplying that by 0.75 comes up with 120, which should be about right.

 

[fairchaser]

Ames is a good example of what an intensely managed property can produce on a regular basis in West Tennessee. I doubt their results could be replicated in every part of the state, however, due to differences in soil and habitat and hunters. Ames hunters are generally more experienced in hunting mature bucks simply because they have to up their game to be successful. When you have strict enforceable rules, experienced and dedicated hunters, a balanced herd, it is reasonable to average 130+ bucks on a regular basis with a success rate of 25% to 35%. That's not potential but actual results. In many ways, Ames is an exception due to the large amount of contiguous acres compared to many small properties in TN and the fact that hunters are experienced on that property. I recall, Natchez Trace attempted to have a draw hunt for mature bucks many years ago and it was a failure because there was a new group of hunters each year who had to learn the property. They found it takes several years to learn a property in order to be successful on mature bucks. It takes many factors to line up in order to make the potential a reality.

 

[BSK]

Ames is a good example of what an intensely managed property can produce on a regular basis in West Tennessee. I doubt their results could be replicated in every part of the state, however, due to differences in soil and habitat and hunters. Ames hunters are generally more experienced in hunting mature bucks simply because they have to up their game to be successful. When you have strict enforceable rules, experienced and dedicated hunters, a balanced herd, it is reasonable to average 130+ bucks on a regular basis with a success rate of 25% to 35%. That's not potential but actual results.

fairchaser,

I do not doubt these numbers one bit. But again, I want to emphasize my definition of "realistic expectations" as being what the majority of hunters will (or could) kill year after year. If only 25-35% of hunters are killing a 130+ buck each year, that is not what I would consider realistic expectations. Realistic expectations would be what I believe 75% of hunters would have the opportunity to kill in a given year. In essence, what size buck would the large majority of hunters have in weapon range at least once during a given year (i.e. have a realistic opportunity to kill). Not potentially have in range, but ACTUALLY have in range.

 

[scn]

My comment was purely a statement that reflects the fact that TN can and will hold 130" deer with regularity if the deer was allowed to live I.e.showing restraint and managing a piece of ground, allowing no hunting, or regs restriction whatever the case may be....my point its reasonable to believe the potential is reality. By the way love the indirect assumptions I'm unable to learn and stuck in fantasy outdoor channel world SCN haven't had cable in 10 yrs

My apology if I misundstood your use of Cades Cove, PI, Milan Arsenal, etc. as examples of any reality based management. Noone has ever said that TN can't grow 130+" deer across the state if they can live to 5.5 or 6.5.

However, it is a major disconnect from reality when hunters use totally or almost totally closed and protected areas as the basis of what TN could and should be doing.

Again, my apology if that wasn't your intent.

 

[TLRanger]

Ames is a good example of what an intensely managed property can produce on a regular basis in West Tennessee. I doubt their results could be replicated in every part of the state, however, due to differences in soil and habitat and hunters. Ames hunters are generally more experienced in hunting mature bucks simply because they have to up their game to be successful. When you have strict enforceable rules, experienced and dedicated hunters, a balanced herd, it is reasonable to average 130+ bucks on a regular basis with a success rate of 25% to 35%. That's not potential but actual results. In many ways, Ames is an exception due to the large amount of contiguous acres compared to many small properties in TN and the fact that hunters are experienced on that property. I recall, Natchez Trace attempted to have a draw hunt for mature bucks many years ago and it was a failure because there was a new group of hunters each year who had to learn the property. They found it takes several years to learn a property in order to be successful on mature bucks. It takes many factors to line up in order to make the potential a reality.

Two bucks that I killed on Natchez Trace when the antler restrictions were in effect. Both were aged at 4.5.

 

[BSK]

I recall, Natchez Trace attempted to have a draw hunt for mature bucks many years ago and it was a failure because there was a new group of hunters each year who had to learn the property. They found it takes several years to learn a property in order to be successful on mature bucks. It takes many factors to line up in order to make the potential a reality.

That is a good example fairchaser. The experiment at Natchez was a harvest "failure," for the exact reasons you mention.

Having older bucks is one thing. Killing them regularly is another. A few can do it consistently. Most cannot. Although I will say the percentage who can do it consistently is definitely growing fairly rapidly.

 

[landman]

My comment was purely a statement that reflects the fact that TN can and will hold 130" deer with regularity if the deer was allowed to live I.e.showing restraint and managing a piece of ground, allowing no hunting, or regs restriction whatever the case may be....my point its reasonable to believe the potential is reality. By the way love the indirect assumptions I'm unable to learn and stuck in fantasy outdoor channel world SCN haven't had cable in 10 yrs

TN Whitetail Freak,

Perhaps I'm misinterpreting your post, but the point I'm trying to make--and the point scn first proposed for this thread--is the difference between realistic potential and realistic expectations. "Potential" is what the area can produce. "Expectations" are what hunters will kill year in and year out. The two can be very different. Now I do agree that many if not most locations in TN can produce 130-class bucks. However, the question is whether the hunters can kill those bucks year in and year out. Some can. Some do not now, but might be able to if their skills were seriously upgraded, and/or they make the commitment to do so. And that last part is critical. Some have the skills necessary but simply don't want to make the commitment, for any number of legitimate reasons. But a discussion of "realistic expectations" must include what a specific group of hunters can kill year in and year out given their current skill/dedication level. That will not be the same between groups of hunters. Take two sets of hunters and have them hunt the same property. The realistic expectations for those two groups may be different, based on their skill/dedication level.

BINGO...BSK hit it on the head, just because 120-130-140" bucks are living on the farm it doesn't mean the hunters hunting the place can see or kill them

 

[BULL MOOSE]

We're the antler restrictions at Natchez on the North or South?

 

[fairchaser]

Ames is a good example of what an intensely managed property can produce on a regular basis in West Tennessee. I doubt their results could be replicated in every part of the state, however, due to differences in soil and habitat and hunters. Ames hunters are generally more experienced in hunting mature bucks simply because they have to up their game to be successful. When you have strict enforceable rules, experienced and dedicated hunters, a balanced herd, it is reasonable to average 130+ bucks on a regular basis with a success rate of 25% to 35%. That's not potential but actual results. In many ways, Ames is an exception due to the large amount of contiguous acres compared to many small properties in TN and the fact that hunters are experienced on that property. I recall, Natchez Trace attempted to have a draw hunt for mature bucks many years ago and it was a failure because there was a new group of hunters each year who had to learn the property. They found it takes several years to learn a property in order to be successful on mature bucks. It takes many factors to line up in order to make the potential a reality.

Two bucks that I killed on Natchez Trace when the antler restrictions were in effect. Both were aged at 4.5.

That's awesome TLRanger. I guess you would vote for bringing back antler restrictions in some areas.