Over-hunting stands

[BSK]

I've posted this data before, but it's now updated with data from the 2022-23 season. This data is also meant more for bow-hunters as stands in this study were set up for very close-range shots (20-40 yards), even during MZ and gun hunting. The data includes 18 years of hunting with 1,692 individual hunts.

The gist of the data is that the more times you hunt a stand, the lower your chances of seeing older bucks. Not that the chances ever fall to zero, but they certainly decline the more times you hunt the same stand in the same year. Older bucks pick up on the fact the stand is being hunted and begin avoiding it during daylight. The best chance to see an older buck is the first time the stand is hunted that year, and the chances of seeing older bucks - on average - declined by around 63% by the fourth time that stand was hunted in the same year.

Again, this has little relevance for those who are shooting hundreds of yards across open fields, but for those who hunt - even during gun season - back in the thick stuff where visibility is very limited, something to think about.

 

[Bass1090]

Great info BSK. I think this is the biggest reason some of the bucks we have on camera before season never get seen on our lease. I know some range out but think others just "wisen up" even more.

This should be a great thread!

 

[Ski]

The data includes 18 years of hunting with 1,692 individual hunts.

That's hard to argue with. Nearly 1700 sits over 2 decades is quite the sample size. Good info. Thanks for sharing!

 

[redblood]

great info, but i do see a potential flaw- since you group 2.5 year old with older (shootable) deer together . wouldn't many of the deer by shot on the 1st first hunt. therefore there would be less mature bucks to be "observed" on subsequent hunts. one could also make a case that the activity that results from these early successful hunts- atv, hunters talking, gun shot etc- did more to discourage location utilization more so than the hunter simply hunting the stand

 

[Ski]

Great info BSK. I think this is the biggest reason some of the bucks we have on camera before season never get seen on our lease. I know some range out but think other just "wisen up" even more.

This should be a great thread!

From the deer's point of view, they have several consecutive months of no human presence in the woods. Then seemingly over night human scent is everywhere and they can't get away from it. Every huntable property has somebody coming in to scout, hang or maintain stands, check cams, etc. right before season opens. We hunters collectively disrupt the deer woods a whole lot more than any single one of us likes to think. Even if you personally aren't entering your property until time to hunt, everybody around you is. It's that magical time of year when we all just want to be in the woods. People that haven't stepped in the woods since before Christmas are now tromping all around them. The deer likely feel like the characters in "Red Dawn". There's a massive invasion and the invaders are everywhere!

 

[BSK]

great info, but i do see a potential flaw- since you group 2.5 year old with older (shootable) deer together . wouldn't many of the deer by shot on the 1st first hunt. therefore there would be less mature bucks to be "observed" on subsequent hunts. one could also make a case that the activity that results from these early successful hunts- atv, hunters talking, gun shot etc- did more to discourage location utilization more so than the hunter simply hunting the stand

I'm sure there's something to that. But not all the hunters will shoot 2 1/2 year-old bucks. In addition, we're only killing 2-4 older bucks per year out of a population of 20 or so older bucks each year. So even if I use an average of 3 bucks killed per year, that's only 15% of the huntable population, which doesn't account for the 63% decline in sightings by the 4th hunt from a stand.

 

[BSK]

I also want to reiterate; these are average numbers over time. I'm sure everyone has a particular stand location on their property, that due to habitat and/or terrain features, is always good no matter what. It's located near a major intersection of travel patterns. It won't matter how many times it is hunted; hunters still have a chance of seeing a good buck from that stand, especially during the rut.

We go to great lengths to move our ladder stands around every couple of years to prevent deer from memorizing their location and avoiding them. Yet we still have a couple of ladders that have been in the same spot for 10 years. Why? Because they are great spots!

 

[JCDEERMAN]

Very good info. Love the data. Most all my kills are the very first sit. It's rare to find a place that produces after multiple sits, especially at that close range. They exist, but are very rare. If you find them, you've won the lottery

 

[redblood]

I'm sure there's something to that. But not all the hunters will shoot 2 1/2 year-old bucks. In addition, we're only killing 2-4 older bucks per year out of a population of 20 or so older bucks each year. So even if I use an average of 3 bucks killed per year, that's only 15% of the huntable population, which doesn't account for the 64% decline in sightings by the 4th hunt from a stand.

ok got it. no doubt human intrusion is a deterrent for mature buck activity. I do feel that the rut can be a wildcard however. I killed my buck this yr (whom i think was 5.5 -awaiting results) on the 6th hunt from the stand. He died on Nov 17th and had chased a group of does all over the woods. I dont think he cared how many times i have been there that morning. i have learned that as a bowhunter in October, if you spook them, they are gone from that spot. Rut they seem to be more forgiving.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

ok got it. no doubt human intrusion is a deterrent for mature buck activity. I do feel that the rut can be a wildcard however. I killed my buck this yr (whom i think was 5.5 -awaiting results) on the 6th hunt from the stand. He died on Nov 17th and had chased a group of does all over the woods. I dont think he cared how many times i have been there that morning. i have learned that as a bowhunter in October, if you spook them, they are gone from that spot. Rut they seem to be more forgiving.

No doubt a wildcard during that time period!

 

[DMD]

It's interesting, but I just think there are too many variables to draw any real conclusions. Much of it depends on what you are hunting. What I mean - a stand set up in a mature bucks bedroom - Yea, he's probably going to get wise very soon. But, a stand set up on a travel corridor - the more I hunt it, my odds of seeing a mature buck increase. I just think there are so many variables, it's hard to say by the data alone if a person should only hunt a stand once or not. But, all of this data should be considered when making hunting choices.

 

[BSK]

It's interesting, but I just think there are too many variables to draw any real conclusions. Much of it depends on what you are hunting. What I mean - a stand set up in a mature bucks bedroom - Yea, he's probably going to get wise very soon. But, a stand set up on a travel corridor - the more I hunt it, my odds of seeing a mature buck increase. I just think there are so many variables, it's hard to say by the data alone if a person should only hunt a stand once or not. But, all of this data should be considered when making hunting choices.

Again, these are just averages over time. And the odds never fall to zero. In fact, they seem to "bottom out" around the 4th hunt and really don't fall any farther. I promise you, imbedded in all that data there are some mature buck sightings on the 4th or 5th time a stand was hunted. However, on average our chances are highest the first hunt and then decline after that. But they never hit zero.

 

[tahtah]

Here's a question for you, and you might not be able to know this, do you see any trends of mature bucks avoiding a spot the following year(s), once he detects hunting pressure? I guess you'd have to identify and track specific bucks to know that.

 

[BSK]

Very good info. Love the data. Most all my kills are the very first sit. It's rare to find a place that produces after multiple sits, especially at that close range. They exist, but are very rare. If you find them, you've won the lottery

For data purposes, I break down our stands into three categories: stands that are in a new location that year (first year in that location), stands that were moved to a new location the previous year (second year in that location), and then all other stands (3rd or more seasons in that location). Before I started running this analysis, I assumed the "new" stands (first season in that location) would produce the highest older buck sighting rates, especially the first hunt of the year. But that was not the case. It was the stands that were new the previous year (2nd season in that location) that have the highest older buck sightings for the 1st hunt of the year. I really had to ponder that for a couple of years before I realized why this is. It all comes down to how/why we move a stand. We move a stand once sightings begin to decline, or the stand is not producing the sightings we had hoped.

We find new locations for stands based on finding "holes in our hunting pressure." I can run a GIS analysis of our hunting pressure over the last three seasons that produces a map showing hunting pressure like a topo map. High pressure areas look like hills and low pressure looks like valleys. We will then try to move declining sightings or unproductive stands into these holes/valleys in our hunting pressure, regardless of whether there is buck sign in those locations or not. Because of this system, about half of all the "new" stands each year turnout to be total busts. Those new bust stands will get moved the next year. And that's the answer to why the "second season" stands are so productive. They are comprised only of the "new" stands from the previous year that were the hot stands. All of the "busts" have been moved somewhere else.

The funny thing is, some of the other hunters have figured this out. I make a new map of the property each year with the current habitat and each stand color-coded as to whether it is new, 2nd season, or 3+ seasons in that location. Some of the hunters now run around trying to be the first person to hunt the 2nd season stands! It's actually quite a productive tactic!

 

[BSK]

Here's a question for you, and you might not be able to know this, do you see any trends of mature bucks avoiding a spot the following year(s), once he detects hunting pressure? I guess you'd have to identify and track specific bucks to know that.

See the above discussion about how we track our stand data. The vast majority of mature buck kills occur from either "new" stands (first year in that location), or 2nd season stands (second year in that location). We still occasionally see/kill a mature buck from a 3+ season stand, but the numbers are much lower than for the 1st and 2nd season stands.

 

[Boll Weevil]

Again, this has little relevance for those who are shooting hundreds of yards across open fields

Glad you called this out. We always hunt with favorable winds, entry, and exit but won't hesitate to hunt stands repeatedly in field scenarios.

 

[BSK]

Glad you called this out. We always hunt with favorable winds, entry, and exit but won't hesitate to hunt stands repeatedly in field scenarios.

Agree completely.

Because we are steep hill country, and primarily a mix of mature hardwoods and brushy, thick regrowth areas, our stands are set for near point-blank range shots (because visibility is so limited). I'll bet I would find little relevance between sightings and times stands were hunted if our stands were on the edge of big bean fields.

 

[ROUGH COUNTRY HUNTER]

I have found that on my place the hunting of mature bucks got so much better and the odds increased to my favor by eliminating morning hunting.we don't hunt near as much as the past and kill two of the top end of the top 4 bucks that we know exist consistently each year

 

[JCDEERMAN]

For data purposes, I break down our stands into three categories: stands that are in a new location that year (first year in that location), stands that were moved to a new location the previous year (second year in that location), and then all other stands (3rd or more seasons in that location). Before I started running this analysis, I assumed the "new" stands (first season in that location) would produce the highest older buck sighting rates, especially the first hunt of the year. But that was not the case. It was the stands that were new the previous year (2nd season in that location) that have the highest older buck sightings for the 1st hunt of the year. I really had to ponder that for a couple of years before I realized why this is. It all comes down to how/why we move a stand. We move a stand once sightings begin to decline, or the stand is not producing the sightings we had hoped.

We find new locations for stands based on finding "holes in our hunting pressure." I can run a GIS analysis of our hunting pressure over the last three seasons that produces a map showing hunting pressure like a topo map. High pressure areas look like hills and low pressure looks like valleys. We will then try to move declining sightings or unproductive stands into these holes/valleys in our hunting pressure, regardless of whether there is buck sign in those locations or not. Because of this system, about half of all the "new" stands each year turnout to be total busts. Those new bust stands will get moved the next year. And that's the answer to why the "second season" stands are so productive. They are comprised only of the "new" stands from the previous year that were the hot stands. All of the "busts" have been moved somewhere else.

The funny thing is, some of the other hunters have figured this out. I make a new map of the property each year with the current habitat and each stand color-coded as to whether it is new, 2nd season, or 3+ seasons in that location. Some of the hunters now run around trying to be the first person to hunt the 2nd season stands! It's actually quite a productive tactic!

Makes perfect sense and I like how you do your spatial analysis.

It's funny when getting into a stand for the first time. Most times I had set them up during the summer time - can't wait to get in them. Once light comes and I can see what the surrounding area looks like with the majority of the leaves off the trees, I'm either immediately confident or immediately disappointed. That "initial gut feeling" typically determines the success of that stand - hence I won't go back the rest of the season and it is moved after the season to somewhere else. Or on the flip side, I'm confident in it, have an impressive sit, or there is a kill. Then, it's my new favorite spot

 

[JCDEERMAN]

I have found that on my place the hunting of mature bucks got so much better and the odds increased to my favor by eliminating morning hunting.we don't hunt near as much as the past and kill two of the top end of the top 4 bucks that we know exist consistently each year

I think it's property specific, as well as, all the variable circumstances on surrounding properties. Most all of our bucks are killed in the morning. For a lot of places, I get your point entirely and would do the exact same thing if our data suggested that.