Kill Numbers

[Southern Sportsman]

Assuming that the Game Check data is correct (perhaps a big assumption after all the glitches the system had last year) the kill numbers to date are staggering. Through Monday (first three days of the season plus juvenile weekend) - 13,323 turkeys checked in statewide. For the same timeframe last year, we killed 7,899, on our way to 31,252 for the season.

I wish I was happy and optimistic about it. I'm certain that is the spin the state will offer - harvest numbers are soaring. Up over 68% from the same timeframe last year. Turkeys are doing great. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but it worries me a lot more than it excites me. For the last several years, summer brood surveys have shown that the number of hens with poults is steadily decreasing and the number of poults per hen is decreasing and the number of gobblers per hen is decreasing. So we aren't producing more turkeys - we're producing fewer. But we're killing more. And if this year's trend continues - we're killing a whole hell of a lot more. This year seems like a perfect storm for hammering TN turkeys. Early spring, perfect weather, and increased hunting pressure from those who might otherwise hunt KY, NE, or other states that have cut off non-residents, and those who are forced to work from home or not work because of the pandemic.

"Great" kill numbers might give the commission cover to continue doing nothing with the regulations and management structure. But increased harvest numbers with decreaseing production numbers doesn't seem sustainable. I hope I'm wrong.

But on a less whiney note, contrats to the thousands of you that pounded turkeys this weekend.



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[Andy S.]

Good post, I saw those same staggering kill numbers to date. In short, hunters (resident & NR) afield have killed/tagged 43% of last year's TOTAL in roughly FIVE days of hunting. That is eye opening and cause for concern if truly accurate. In five days, there has been almost roughly HALF of last year's 44 day season. :shock:

It is also eye opening that Region 2 has killed roughly TWICE the numbers of the other regions for the same duration, but all Regions are managed the same as far as season length and bag limits. A good bit of Region 1 acreage is either under water or still not open due to certain WMAs not opening until this weekend April 11.

 

[WayneCountyGiant]

Now other states are closing to NR and TN will just let them keep coming bc they want the money. The limit should have been reduced years ago. They ended the fall quotas in certain counties like Wayne but left the gobbler harvest the same. Makes zero sense.

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[woodsman04]

I think it's high because it's perfect weather, spring was early, season started just a few days later than average, and most of all, people are off work.
Lots of people still do work on Saturdays or Sundays.
High harvest likely has little to do with the turkey population being high.


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[cardia10]

I agree with some others. The opportunity to hunt is better for most due to being off work and being one of the few options to get out and do.

 

[timberghost3591]

Hell everyone is off work. I'm off all this wk, work next wk, and then off the following and still have 15 days of vacation I can burn if needed. I'm trying to take my time, but I could have been done by now.

The thing that concerns me is the light blue counties along the MS river. Those places used to be FULL of birds. Now, hardly nothing. That's what I want TWRA to look into..

 

[TheLBLman]

x 2 and Noteworthy . . . . . .

In short, hunters (resident & NR) afield have killed/tagged 43% of last year's TOTAL in roughly FIVE days of hunting.
:shock:

It is also eye opening that Region 2 has killed roughly TWICE the numbers of the other regions for the same duration, but all Regions are managed the same as far as season length and bag limits. A good bit of Region 1 acreage is either under water or still not open due to certain WMAs not opening until this weekend April 11.

My observation in Stewart County, TN is we had a slightly above average hatch/poult survival last year,
but remain down from historic populations over at least the past two decades.

What is noticeably less here: Male birds over a year old.

Scattered flocks of jakes & jennies seem to be a bit above the past 3 or 4 years.
Just seems each year we're over-harvesting the 2-yr-old & older birds?

So why is year-to-date harvest so high?

GREAT opening weekend weather +
compared to times past, longer range guns/loads, more using decoys,
and I believe
a lot more hunters hunting over bait (corn or wheat).

There was a huge increase in "deer" corn & "feed" wheat (from the County Co-Ops)
in the 10-day period leading up to opening weekend of turkey season.
Why?
I witnessed some of this buying myself,
and it couldn't have been any more obvious they were baiting turkeys.

IMO, we could have much better turkey hunting, hear more gobbling, have more turkeys
if our season opened the 2nd Saturday of April rather than the Saturday closest to April 1st.
This alone would improve nesting success,
helping us to sustain a higher turkey population.

It would also help if our laws against baiting could be better enforced.

 

[Boll Weevil]

Agree with nearly all of the above. It's more aggravating than anything that the folks with the authority to modify the turkey hunting landscape are seemingly AWOL.

 

[TheLBLman]

The limit should have been reduced years ago.

Totally agree.

Some of the WMA's have taken a more proactive role in attempting to better manage higher quality hunting, and a higher, yet sustainable turkey population.

 

[bloodtrailing]

Interested to see the jake harvest. I think we will see a higher percentage of jakes this year than last.


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[Boll Weevil]

Interested to see the jake harvest. I think we will see a higher percentage of jakes this year than last.

Agree.

 

[TheLBLman]

Interested to see the jake harvest. I think we will see a higher percentage of jakes this year than last.

Agree.

I also agree.
It is in part because there are more jakes this year,
and fewer longbeards.

So, will we end up allowing more jakes this year, to increase next year's supply of longbeards,
or just kill more jakes this year, since we can,
then complain there's fewer longbeards next year?

My take is (statewide) more legal turkeys are being killed period, at least as a percentage of the turkey population.

Some will argue our current turkey populations are "sustainable",
and that hunting has little to do with ongoing populations, when hens are not killed.

But there is a big difference between hunting a robust population containing lots of gobbling longbeards
vs.
a marginally "sustainable" turkey population where relatively few longbeards exist, and seldom gobble,
and the jakes are never conditioned to know that lots of gobbling is naturally normal.

 

[Bgoodman30]

I really don't get the baiting assumptions. I mean turkeys aren't focused on food right now... Before season yes but still not a big factor IMO.

Even though they have been pretty quiet on the ground I am actually seeing a slight uptick in gobbler numbers this season. It seems that at each one of our spots there is couple more than last season.

Today was one the best numbers I've heard from the limb in TN in years even though 7 of those were gobbling Jakes...

Plenty more birds out there!


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[TheLBLman]

I really don't get the baiting assumptions. I mean turkeys aren't focused on food right now... Before season yes but still not a big factor IMO.

Will have to disagree,
although you are correct in that hens are additionally focusing on nesting,
and longbeards are additionally focused on searching for hens.

But all still have some focus on eating.

The longbeard I killed Sunday morning had corn in his craw,
despite my killing him a solid 3/4-plus mile from the nearest property line.
No corn on my property, but this one had apparently gone to some earlier in the morning.
I killed him @ 10am.

Another thing, if hens are utilizing a bait site,
they can and will draw in the longbeards.

 

[TheLBLman]

Even though they have been pretty quiet on the ground I am actually seeing a slight uptick in gobbler numbers this season.

Today was one the best numbers I've heard from the limb in TN in years even though 7 of those were gobbling Jakes...

Plenty more birds out there!

When it comes to being more susceptible to be killed over bait sites,
jakes may be the most susceptible.
These are the birds that become next year's longbeards, if they survive until then.

Illegal baiting for turkeys is rampant in Tennessee.

 

[SwampChicken]

Today was one the best numbers I've heard from the limb in TN in years even though 7 of those were gobbling Jakes...

Plenty more birds out there!

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I agree, I hunted Saturday in R4 and Sunday in R3 and we had 5+ gobblers hammering on the limb before fly down each day. The hen numbers were out of control as well, had several of them come pecking at the end of the barrel. The two counties that I hunt are both right on track with last years harvest #s at this point in the season and their seems to be a very healthy population

 

[Bgoodman30]

Even though they have been pretty quiet on the ground I am actually seeing a slight uptick in gobbler numbers this season.

Today was one the best numbers I've heard from the limb in TN in years even though 7 of those were gobbling Jakes...

Plenty more birds out there!

When it comes to being more susceptible to be killed over bait sites,
jakes may be the most susceptible.
These are the birds that become next year's longbeards, if they survive until then.

Illegal baiting for turkeys is rampant in Tennessee.

I'm sure but it's never affected my spots or hunt way or the other. Never even crossed my mind that the neighbors baiting had any factor in my hunt. Also never heard of know of anyone who has more success in the spring season because they bait more? Seems like baiting is a big waste of time when corn is that last thing on his mind...Maybe I'm naive..


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[Bgoodman30]

Today was one the best numbers I've heard from the limb in TN in years even though 7 of those were gobbling Jakes...

Plenty more birds out there!

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I agree, I hunted Saturday in R4 and Sunday in R3 and we had 5+ gobblers hammering on the limb before fly down each day. The hen numbers were out of control as well, had several of them come pecking at the end of the barrel. The two counties that I hunt are both right on track with last years harvest #s at this point in the season and their seems to be a very healthy population

Good to hear I just counted in region 2 on 6 hunts on 4 farms and 1 public track seen 25 gobblers and 14 Jakes but 3 died. [emoji6]


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[bloodtrailing]

I think the higher bag limits impacts the Jake harvest. Some people are more willing to shoot a Jake when they have three other tags for long beards. Limit the tags they become more valuable.

Saw where an accomplished hunter ground checked one the other day. Limit the tags to two or three and it can change not only the numbers but the mix.


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[Southern Sportsman]

If you run reports under the "Turkey Harvest Report by County/WMA" feature, you can see breakdown of gobblers/hens/jakes. You just have to run it for each region separately.

Same timeframe (3/28 - 4/6)
R1 - 2551 total; 356 jakes; 22 hens
R2 - 5002 total; 666 jakes; 43 hens
R3 - 2435 total; 348 jakes; 24 hens
R4 - 2556 total; 479 jakes; 22 hens
WMAs (combined) - 814 total; 143 jakes; 4 hens.

Statewide: 13,358 total (I guess a few got checked in late); 1,849 jakes; 115 hens

So to-date, 13.8% of the kill has been jakes. Not sure how that stacks up to years past, but I can run it later if someone doesn't beat me to it. But it doesn't sound exceptionally high.

 

[bloodtrailing]

Wish we could stop the hen killing or make it count as all 4 tags.


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[bloodtrailing]

If you run reports under the "Turkey Harvest Report by County/WMA" feature, you can see breakdown of gobblers/hens/jakes. You just have to run it for each region separately.

Same timeframe (3/28 - 4/6)
R1 - 2551 total; 356 jakes; 22 hens
R2 - 5002 total; 666 jakes; 43 hens
R3 - 2435 total; 348 jakes; 24 hens
R4 - 2556 total; 479 jakes; 22 hens
WMAs (combined) - 814 total; 143 jakes; 4 hens.

Statewide: 13,358 total (I guess a few got checked in late); 1,849 jakes; 115 hens

So to-date, 13.8% of the kill has been jakes. Not sure how that stacks up to years past, but I can run it later if someone doesn't beat me to it. But it doesn't sound exceptionally high.

11.5% were jakes of the male harvest in 2019.


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[TheLBLman]

I suspect the percentage jakes this year is going to go much higher,
mainly because many jakes do not have a "visible" beard during the first part of our season.

I've learned to accurately identify them, with or without a beard,
but somewhere around half seem to have nothing visible, yet,
and they only become "legal" to kill when the beard is "visible".

Many that are just barely visible now, will be very noticeable before our season ends in May.

I'm not sure just how good or bad this is,
but remember percentage of jakes in the harvest typically also
is relative to the number of living longbeards and the number of living jakes.

Everything effects everything.

The percentage of either could be relatively high,
but our total turkey kill could be relatively low (or very high).

Another way of looking at this thru the lens of many hunters quit hunting after they kill "a" turkey, regardless of whether longbeard or jake.
The average longbeard may have better survival skills to live another year than the average jake.
So from a management perspective,
is it better for a hunter to kill "a" jake or "a" longbeard?

What matters more is the total male harvest percentage relative to the total number of male birds?

 

[poorhunter]

Great weather and lots more folks off work. Easy to know why the kill is up.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Great weather and lots more folks off work. Easy to know why the kill is up.

All of these folks must not have kids!


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[AT Hiker]

Great weather and lots more folks off work. Easy to know why the kill is up.

All of these folks must not have kids!


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I'm hunting less because my kid is home.

However, I know far more kid-less Turkey hunters. Most seem to be younger hunters without kids, older hunters with grown kids or people that were able to dodge having kids.

Either way, the woods are packed.


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[poorhunter]

Great weather and lots more folks off work. Easy to know why the kill is up.

All of these folks must not have kids!


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I'm hunting less because my kid is home.

However, I know far more kid-less Turkey hunters. Most seem to be younger hunters without kids, older hunters with grown kids or people that were able to dodge having kids.

Either way, the woods are packed.


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My one neighbor that leases his place has had more pressure than most popular WMA's I bet. No shots yet, but there has been a LOT more traffic than past years.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Great weather and lots more folks off work. Easy to know why the kill is up.

All of these folks must not have kids!


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I'm hunting less because my kid is home.

However, I know far more kid-less Turkey hunters. Most seem to be younger hunters without kids, older hunters with grown kids or people that were able to dodge having kids.

Either way, the woods are packed.


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Be a miracle if my marriage makes it through this spell...


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[megalomaniac]

We will have literally removed 25% of the gobbler population before breeding has even started in earnest by next weekend. No turkey biologist would ever think that is a number to brag about.

Just sad.

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[TheLBLman]

Just sad.

On a more positive note, the powers that be at LBL
are looking brilliant about now?