From Dr. Harpers lips to your ears... Must listen.

[Andy S.]

He mentioned study in 1988 where nest success was 62%! Now its 20%... Its quite simple..

For sure! I'll listen to see how "nest success" is measured/quantified. Regardless, TWRA biologists, staff and the general public have been tracking poults per hen for 40 years, and it has been on a steady gradual decline for years now, excluding the last few with the good hatches and slight increase in poults per hen Statewide. Data below taken from 2022 TWRA Annual Wild Turkey Status Report that Roger Shields and team lead. Roger is on top of his game and great at what he does. Now if he could just get decision makers to listen to him. Time will tell.

 

[Bgoodman30]

For sure! I'll listen to see how "nest success" is measured/quantified. Regardless, TWRA biologists, staff and the general public have been tracking poults per hen for 40 years, and it has been on a steady gradual decline for years now, excluding the last few with the good hatches and slight increase in poults per hen Statewide. Data below taken from 2022 TWRA Annual Wild Turkey Status Report that Roger Shields and team lead. Roger is on top of his game and great at what he does. Now if he could just get decision makers to listen to him. Time will tell.


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Yeah he was talking about specific research project done in 1988. I am afraid to see what the PPH is in 2023 I'm afraid it could be 2 or below which is obviously devastating….

 

[Setterman]

Yeah he was talking about specific research project done in 1988. I am afraid to see what the PPH is in 2023 I'm afraid it could be 2 or below which is obviously devastating….

Which if that is the case our season and limits should've reduced to adjust for this dip in productivity. TWRA doesn't seem to recognize how to manage anything with regards to changing based on the current population trends.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Which if that is the case our season and limits should've reduced to adjust for this dip in productivity. TWRA doesn't seem to recognize how to manage anything with regards to changing based on the current population trends.

Well it was? Are you talking about it should have been sooner? Or you choosing to ignore the research that shows seasons and delays did not positively affect productivity?

As shown in the chart above by Andy the dip started in 2014 when PPH dipped below 2 for the first time and we have very recent data to measure during the season changes.

2021: 2.2
2022: 2.2
2023: ?

I will conclude if 2023 PPH is <2.2 then hallelujah keep the current season delays and framework. If its >2.2 then sorry the experiment didn't work I hope some of ya'll take your L and line up and shake hands. TWRA will need to go back to the drawing board and try try again...

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Well it was? Are you talking about it should have been sooner? Or you choosing to ignore the research that shows seasons and delays did not positively affect productivity?

As shown in the chart above by Andy the dip started in 2014 when PPH dipped below 2 for the first time and we have very recent data to measure during the season changes.

2021: 2.2
2022: 2.2
2023: ?

I will conclude if 2023 PPH is <2.2 then hallelujah keep the current season delays and framework. If its >2.2 then sorry the experiment didn't work I hope some of ya'll take your L and line up and shake hands. TWRA will need to go back to the drawing board and try try again...

Poor PPH does not necessarily mean poor nest success. Nests may hatch successfully, but high predation/poor poult survival might reduce the PPH number to <2. Doesn't mean we should stop worrying about nest success.

I'm curious where the 2023 nest success numbers Harper references came from? The thesis paper published a while back said they radio tagged/monitored turkeys from 2017-2022, with the delay in effect for '21 and '22. During those years, nest success improved significantly in the three delayed counties. I was hoping Harper would address/explain that, but I'm 2/3 finished with the podcast and he hasn't done so yet.

I hope Harper is right, but it's odd to me that he opposed the delay for years because he needed more time to gather and study data through the study. Now he wants to abandon the delay after one (1) year of statewide implementation. Just seems knee-jerk to me. Harper is clearly an accomplished biologist, and I'm not qualified to say he's wrong. But it seems odd to downplay the documented improvement in nest success shown in the study and declare that the season delay doesn't work after such a short time.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Poor PPH does not necessarily mean poor nest success. Nests may hatch successfully, but high predation/poor poult survival might reduce the PPH number to <2. Doesn't mean we should stop worrying about nest success.

I'm curious where the 2023 nest success numbers Harper references came from? The thesis paper published a while back said they radio tagged/monitored turkeys from 2017-2022, with the delay in effect for '21 and '22. During those years, nest success improved significantly in the three delayed counties. I was hoping Harper would address/explain that, but I'm 2/3 finished with the podcast and he hasn't done so yet.

I hope Harper is right, but it's odd to me that he opposed the delay for years because he needed more time to gather and study data through the study. Now he wants to abandon the delay after one (1) year of statewide implementation. Just seems knee-jerk to me. Harper is clearly an accomplished biologist, and I'm not qualified to say he's wrong. But it seems odd to downplay the documented improvement in nest success shown in the study and declare that the season delay doesn't work after such a short time.

I strongly suggest anyone commenting listen to the podcast first. He said they are still analyzing the data but here are my summary of Dr. Harper season recommendations spoken at the end of the podcast.

1. Opener first week of April is "sound".
2. 2-3 gobblers doesn't really matter statewide harvest is the same.
3. Any fall gobblers should count toward season limit.
4. Outlaw jake harvest except for youth.
5. Outlaw bearded hen harvest.
6. 5 week season is enough
7. Zones not necessary
8. More WMA quota's needed

I agree wholeheartedly with all above but do think that zones can be beneficial if some regions are suffering.

 

[Dennis]

This year's nesting success may be impacted by the cicada emergence. A lot of animals will eat the cicadas, reducing nest predation. And the cicadas are an easy food supply for poults. So using this year as a measure of whether the regulation changes are having a positive impact might lead to an incorrect conclusion.

 

[Bgoodman30]

This year's nesting success may be impacted by the cicada emergence. A lot of animals will eat the cicadas, reducing nest predation. And the cicadas are an easy food supply for poults. So using this year as a measure of whether the regulation changes are having a positive impact might lead to an incorrect conclusion.

We won't know about this years nest success until next year... Cicadas will help hopefully but the brood is limited to just a handful of counties.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

I strongly suggest anyone commenting listen to the podcast first. He said they are still analyzing the data but here are my summary of Dr. Harper season recommendations spoken at the end of the podcast.

1. Opener first week of April is "sound".
2. 2-3 gobblers doesn't really matter statewide harvest is the same.
3. Any fall gobblers should count toward season limit.
4. Outlaw jake harvest except for youth.
5. Outlaw bearded hen harvest.
6. 5 week season is enough
7. Zones not necessary
8. More WMA quota's needed

I agree wholeheartedly with all above but do think that zones can be beneficial if some regions are suffering.

I have finished it now. He never explains where the nest success numbers for 2023 came from or why the improved numbers in the study weren't considered positive improvement.

 

[megalomaniac]

He said nest success was some of the lowest last year after delay EVER...

Dude must be on crack or something....

2023 was the best nest success ive seen on my farms since the mid 2000s. I saw 5 jakes while hunting this morn, another 22 from the roads on the 10 mile drive back to farmhouse.

Saw 10 while hunting yesterday in a different area. 8 the day before on yet another farm.

Coincides with the number of poults I saw last year as well.

Perhaps his data didn't include successful jennies or renesters.... the one BIG difference from years prior is virtually all the poults were hatched late... like July/Aug. And as such, most jakes don't even have beards breaking the feather line right now.

 

[megalomaniac]

I read all of these findings and wonder what predators are doing the most damage? Also, why has the predator problem gotten so bad as of late. I figure mostly a change in hunters and trappers actions. You do not see many people coon hunting like they did 20 years ago. Also, trapping is not done a lot either.

Coyotes are the primary killer of both hens and toms. But hens are especially vulnerable during incubation.

 

[MickThompson]

This will definitely trigger some folks. From their data in ARU's (Acoustic research units). "After May 15th most of the gobbling is done"

I disagree with this some I think its farm specific. Depends on if any hens available..

Gobbling is done because gobblers are dead

 

[megalomaniac]

Gobbling is done because gobblers are dead

EXACTLY.

When I came up May 28th last year, I heard TONS of gobbling. But I am one of the rare landowners who manages for turkeys and specifically regulates how many birds are removed from a particular locale. As such, I have gobbling turkeys to hunt all the way till the end of May.

 

[Bgoodman30]

2023 was the best nest success ive seen on my farms since the mid 2000s. I saw 5 jakes while hunting this morn, another 22 from the roads on the 10 mile drive back to farmhouse.

Saw 10 while hunting yesterday in a different area. 8 the day before on yet another farm.

Coincides with the number of poults I saw last year as well.

Perhaps his data didn't include successful jennies or renesters.... the one BIG difference from years prior is virtually all the poults were hatched late... like July/Aug. And as such, most jakes don't even have beards breaking the feather line right now.

Well that's good for you but I am seeing quite the opposite around here... Yes we have some of the Jakes with no beard but they're still running with jakes. I have some of the lowest number of Jakes I have seen on the places I hunt maybe ever.. I also see a ton of turkeys around here daily. Jakes are almost non existent. Honestly have not seen more than 3 in a group... Fortunately close to the most gobblers I have seen in 10 years though..

Sorry but I am going with the biologist and researchers on this one...

 

[megalomaniac]

I will conclude if 2023 PPH is <2.2 then hallelujah keep the current season delays and framework. If its >2.2 then sorry the experiment didn't work I hope some of ya'll take your L and line up and shake hands. TWRA will need to go back to the drawing board and try try again...

Why in the heck are you so hell bent on moving season back to when gobblers are henned up? Hunting is SO much easier, and more fun right now!

Hell, yesterday I struck 2 birds 450y off my property line across 2 woven wire fences and a public road. It took an hour and 40 something gobbles, but called both to 20 yards of my setup. No way they wouldn't have gobbled up a real hen in that hour it took to convince them to come in had they been alone at the end of March.

 

[megalomaniac]

Well that's good for you but I am seeing quite the opposite around here... Yes we have some of the Jakes with no beard but they're still running with jakes. I have some of the lowest number of Jakes I have seen on the places I hunt maybe ever.. I also see a ton of turkeys around here daily. Jakes are almost non existent. Honestly have not seen more than 3 in a group... Fortunately close to the most gobblers I have seen in 10 years though..

Sorry but I am going with the biologist and researchers on this one...

You do realize the entire premise of the initial 'study' was they were comparing counties with population decline versus counties with 'no' population decline? Yet several of the counties included in the control group had already experienced a 75% population decline years prior? Pretty hard for me to accept their research as valid when the entire basis was faulty to begin with.

But you do you... raise the limit, kill em all cause if you don't, the predators will get them first.

 

[Bgoodman30]

I

Why in the heck are you so hell bent on moving season back to when gobblers are henned up? Hunting is SO much easier, and more fun right now!

Hell, yesterday I struck 2 birds 450y off my property line across 2 woven wire fences and a public road. It took an hour and 40 something gobbles, but called

I am not really kind of on the fence but for selfish reasons only. I definitely agree the hunting is better now but I think that has more to do with the better hatches that produced a good crop of 2 yo gobblers.. Before the delay I might add.. It seems now the gobbler to hen ratios are more balanced which leads to much better hunting. There are pros and cons to each. I am not a big fan of hunting in mid may. Hate the summer woods, poison ivy and 3 AM alarms.. I am just opposite of the camp who thinks we can regulate and delay mother nature into producing more turkeys.. I agree with the Dr that the first weekend of April is the right time to open to maximize hunter satisfaction during a peak gobbling time while not affecting production..

 

[Shanman]

Fur brought $ in the 80's, it isn't worth squat now, thousands of rusty traps hanging from nails present day. Fanning, strutter decoys, and bookface were not a thing back in the day. Now add the increase in acres being purchased by non hunters that won't let anyone on their property. Times have changed guys, it's just holes in a bucket…..not one single fix. Moving the start date was 1 hole plugged…. many more to fill. I'll say it till I'm blue in the face, advisory councils made up of RESPECTED hunters from EACH region that have the OUTDOORSMEN'S ear need to be implemented, not just a couple of biologists, especially if they are ready to retire and don't want to rock the boat.
Again, JMHO

 

[Bgoodman30]

You do realize the entire premise of the initial 'study' was they were comparing counties with population decline versus counties with 'no' population decline? Yet several of the counties included in the control group had already experienced a 75% population decline years prior? Pretty hard for me to accept their research as valid when the entire basis was faulty to begin with.

But you do you... raise the limit, kill em all cause if you don't, the predators will get them first.

Not at all. I suggest you listen to the podcast. Again I am going with the Dr. and researchers that do this for a living and were paid by the state to determine what was going on with the turkeys in this state... If you got an issue with their research I would take it up with them.

 

[scn]

I

I am not really kind of on the fence but for selfish reasons only. I definitely agree the hunting is better now but I think that has more to do with the better hatches that produced a good crop of 2 yo gobblers.. Before the delay I might add.. It seems now the gobbler to hen ratios are more balanced which leads to much better hunting. There are pros and cons to each. I am not a big fan of hunting in mid may. Hate the summer woods, poison ivy and 3 AM alarms.. I am just opposite of the camp who thinks we can regulate and delay mother nature into producing more turkeys.. I agree with the Dr that the first weekend of April is the right time to open to maximize hunter satisfaction during a peak gobbling time while not affecting production..

Can you think of any REASONABLE scenario where delaying the start is detrimental to the flock?

I didn't think so.