Moon data

[BSK]

I've updated my moon versus buck sighting rates data, and the link between the changing illumination of the moon's face over the entire moon cycle just keeps getting stronger and stronger with more data.

In the below graph, the solid red line is the actual buck observation rate data, while the dashed orange line is what I believe the trend is. In essence, as more data is collected, I believe the red line will slowly shift to that depicted by the orange dashed line.

Of course, never forget these are AVERAGES. Buck activity can be fantastic on a day that is normally poor, but over the long-term, those days average out to be poor. In the same vein, not all "peak" days will be good. But over time, they end up being the better days ON AVERAGE.

 

[Jarred525]

Great data BSK. Have you ever stacked this against Realtree's Game forecaster or other "movement forcasting" websites?

 

[BSK]

Great data BSK. Have you ever stacked this against Realtree's Game forecaster or other "movement forcasting" websites?

Those are primarily based off the old "Solanar Tables," which themselves are based off when the moon is directly overhead and underfoot (basically, going under the assumption that the maximized gravitational pull of the moon triggers deer movement). I looked at that years ago and found no relationship, but I haven't reanalyzed that data in years.

 

[megalomaniac]

Wow, almost DOUBLE the sightings rate from a late waxing moon to a new moon!

Did you plot doe sightings as well? Does it follow the same trend?

 

[BowGuy84]

huh...interesting. Based on this it woudl indicate that times around the new moon are best but I have heard from a lot of people that that like to hunt the few days leading up to a full moon.

I hunt when I can during the rut but this is interesting on knowing when "all the stars" might be aligned.

 

[BSK]

Did you plot doe sightings as well? Does it follow the same trend?

Yes and yes.

 

[Hillbilly Hunter]

Very interesting. Was your data collected soley in November? If so, do you think the trend would be the same in other monthes where the rut wouldn't be a factor?

 

[BSK]

Very interesting. Was your data collected soley in November? If so, do you think the trend would be the same in other monthes where the rut wouldn't be a factor?

Nope, this is late September through early January data over 24 years. Almost 6,000 hours of deer observation time.

HOWEVER, I stronlgy suspect ALL deer activity patterns are location specific. I wouldn't be shocked at all if data collected from farm country showed a different pattern.

 

[Hillbilly Hunter]

Very interesting. Was your data collected soley in November? If so, do you think the trend would be the same in other monthes where the rut wouldn't be a factor?

Nope, this is late September through early January data over 24 years. Almost 6,000 hours of deer observation time.

HOWEVER, I stronlgy suspect ALL deer activity patterns are location specific. I wouldn't be shocked at all if data collected from farm country showed a different pattern.

that is a great gathering of data over alot of years. I bet your bucks per hour have increased over that time period.

 

[jmb4wd]

I might be reading the graph wrong, or I might just be a moron, but the spike that you see right at full moon strikes me as odd. I would figure that buck sightings would be lower due to nocturnal travel and feeding, someone straighten me out on this

 

[BSK]

that is a great gathering of data over alot of years. I bet your bucks per hour have increased over that time period.

Some. But it's shocking how little deer and buck sighting rates follow actual population. During a period of stable population, one year will have fantastic sighting rates while the next terrible. Wildly fluctuating annual data is the norm. The only way to get decent and interesting analyses from the annual data is to look at using running means or other statistical techniques for removing/muting the tremendous variation from year to year.

And interestingly, total buck sighting rates aren't that different over the long term, but older buck sighting rates have changed dramatically.

 

[primos32]

Good data. Thanks BSK

 

[UTGrad]

Great data

 

[WTM]

that graph mimics the 20 year harvest data of some 17,000 entries throughout the US according to F&S mag. interesting.

 

[BSK]

I might be reading the graph wrong, or I might just be a moron, but the spike that you see right at full moon strikes me as odd. I would figure that buck sightings would be lower due to nocturnal travel and feeding, someone straighten me out on this

That "spike" around the full moon might be real and it might be a normal variation in data. The only way to know is to keep collecting more data. The larger each data sets is (the more hours of observation data in each category) the better the analysis will be.

Also remember these are averages over a long time period. In each category I'm sure I can find great individual days and very poor individual days, no matter what the average is over time.

 

[BSK]

Hillbilly Hunter,

Here's what I mean about older buck sightings increasing over time but buck sightings in general (including yearling bucks) not changing over time:

In fact this graph is a perfect example of why I never use deer observation rates as a measure of deer density. The deer density on my place has changed dramatically over the years, with the total deer population nearly doubling over this time frame. But you sure can't tell it by looking at the "All Bucks" trend (nor form "Total Deer" observation trends). Far too many factors influence hunter-collected deer observation rates to use them as anything meaningful, outside of a measure of hunter satisfaction. Although most hunters don't realize it at first, deer sighting rates are a critical component of hunter satisfaction.

 

[Football Hunter]

You are sure right about the last line above.

 

[BSK]

You are sure right about the last line above.

Yup. I can't tell you how many times I've worked with a landowner or club that, at first, thinks they are more than willing to give up deer sightings to gain big bucks. However, after years of declining doe sightings, they realize "seeing deer" is a big part of hunting fun.

 

[BowGuy84]

What happened in 99-02? Meaning what do you attribute that drop to?

 

[Hillbilly Hunter]

Great info Bryan, thanks for sharing. I have only been keeping sightings data and hours on stand since 2005 but my buck sightings have greatly increased since 1988 when your graph starts. If it had horns everyone shot it around here. Now very few will shoot a 2.5 yr old buck.

 

[BMan]

What are the observation times for the study? Constant throughout, or various times? If so, how does the data differ for morning/midday/afternoon observations?

 

[TheLBLman]

Very good data, BSK, and I love looking at it.

Although personally, I can't see the moon phases ever having much weighting on when I go hunting or don't go hunting. But if I have an opportunity to go deer hunting, my decision to go or not on a particular day is often based on other factors such as the temperature, phase of rut, wind direction and velocity, etc.

 

[BSK]

What happened in 99-02? Meaning what do you attribute that drop to?

That decline is a perfect example of why hunter-collected observation rates are a mixture of so many different influences, and not indicative of actual deer population. The buck population was actually climbing slowly during that period. The decline in sighting rates was due to stagnation in hunting techniques allowing deer to pattern and avoid the hunters.

 

[BSK]

Very good data, BSK, and I love looking at it.

Although personally, I can't see the moon phases ever having much weighting on when I go hunting or don't go hunting.

Me neither Wes. I hunt when I get the chance to hunt.

Again, those are just averages over many, many days of similar moon conditions. But that doesn't mean you won't have the best hunting day of your life on what is statistically the worst possible conditions. On average, the worst days to see bucks are under a waxing moon when the moon's face is between 61 and 99% illuminated. However, I'm sure I can go back through the records and find some awesome hunting days that fell under those conditions. And I can guarantee you there have been some terrible hunting days under a New Moon, which statistically is the best hunting conditions for buck sightings.

 

[BSK]

What are the observation times for the study? Constant throughout, or various times? If so, how does the data differ for morning/midday/afternoon observations?

The vast majority of this data comes from hunters hunting the standard 3-4 hours in the morning starting from just before shooting light, and around 3 hours leading up to last light in the evening.

With the moon data, one interesting possibility is with full moon hunting. Many hunters that believe the full moon is a good time to see bucks are hunting mid-days. Many of the big buck sightings I hear about during the full moon are seen in the 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM time period. Very little of this data was collected during that time period.

 

[BMan]

What are the observation times for the study? Constant throughout, or various times? If so, how does the data differ for morning/midday/afternoon observations?

The vast majority of this data comes from hunters hunting the standard 3-4 hours in the morning starting from just before shooting light, and around 3 hours leading up to last light in the evening.

With the moon data, one interesting possibility is with full moon hunting. Many hunters that believe the full moon is a good time to see bucks are hunting mid-days. Many of the big buck sightings I hear about during the full moon are seen in the 11:00 AM to 2:00 PM time period. Very little of this data was collected during that time period.

Cool, thanks.

 

[TheLBLman]

Although personally, I can't see the moon phases ever having much weighting on when I go hunting or don't go hunting.

Me neither Wes. I hunt when I get the chance to hunt.

But that doesn't mean you won't have the best hunting day of your life on what is statistically the worst possible conditions.

Very true.
Any of us can be "lucky" at any time.

But speaking of "possible conditions", it would seem among the factors effecting daytime deer movement, the phase of the moon is one of the least important?

What do you think is the single most important single daytime movement factor during the rut? I believe it is air temperature.

 

[BSK]

But speaking of "possible conditions", it would seem among the factors effecting daytime deer movement, the phase of the moon is one of the least important?

What do you think is the single most important single daytime movement factor during the rut? I believe it is air temperature.

I think it is the over-all weather patterns and everything that goes along with that condition (cloud cover, wind direction and speed, temperature, etc.). Basically, I think frontal/storm passage and the accompanying sudden changes in atmospheric pressure are the biggest triggers for deer movement.

 

[megalomaniac]

What do you think is the single most important single daytime movement factor during the rut? I believe it is air temperature.

Agreed, but like BSK said, it's the combination of multiple factors together that can create a great or a horrible day for deer movement.

In general- cold better than hot; cloudy better than sunny; light breeze better than very windy or dead calm

But mix a couple things together and it can trump air temp... for example, a day in the 60's during the rut with dense cloud cover, light rain, low winds (especially following several days of sunny 70 deg temps) can really lead to an explosion of daytime rut activity. (That's my favorite day to hunt in the overgrown fields )

I do think cloud cover is somewhat more underrated than it deserves... especially where I hunt out in the open, deer just can't see as well with bright sunshine as they can with a little subdued light- and it definetly influences their activity (again, out in the open... not the woods)

 

[BSK]

But mix a couple things together and it can trump air temp... for example, a day in the 60's during the rut with dense cloud cover, light rain, low winds (especially following several days of sunny 70 deg temps) can really lead to an explosion of daytime rut activity. (That's my favorite day to hunt in the overgrown fields )

I couldn't agree more. An above normal temp day with cloudy skies and drizzle as a storn system approaches can be just as hot as a blue-bird cold-snap morning after a heat-wave.