Managing Expectations

[BigGameGuy]

Quality Whitetails may have just published the best article I have ever seen regarding deer management. It is in the June issue and is titled, "Managing Bucks Means Managing Expectations." I must admit, BSK has been proclaiming the concepts in this article for many years now. Hopefully this article will lead to wider acceptance among deer managers. Anyhow it reminded me of a thread about a month ago from Ridgerunner. Here is a copy of his original question:

Our lease has 680 acres which is just a little over 1 sq. mile. The Deer density map shows our area to have at best 30 deer per sq. mile. We have 6 members and if each of us take 3 deer per year, that would be more than half the population. I know the fawn birth adds to the equation,but it just don't seem to add up.
Seems to me (statistically) the place would eventually be hunted out.

Now lets look at the mature buck factor, if the herd is balanced we would have at best around 15 Bucks. Out of that number I would think, only 2 or 3 shooters.Our goal is to eventually have enough older aged Bucks to give every member a chance to harvest a wall hanger.Unless I'm over looking some things,our goals for the lease are not obtainable. All this hard work, time, and money just don't seem to equal the projected reward.If I'm looking at this wrong or missing some things please explain it to me.I'm new to this management thing but I am trying to learn.We've had the property for 8 months and now with the bull dozer work done we have about 15 acres of food plots and roads limed and planted. Sorry for the rambling... maybe I'm just thinking and worrying to much.

According the the Quality Whitetails article, in average habitat, with an advanced age-structure, a 3,000 acre property has the potential to produce approximately TWO bucks every year that exceed 140 inches (10 in the 120+ category). In Ridgerunner's situation, since he has 680 acres, simply divide these estimates by four. He should be able to consistently produce 2-3 bucks in the 120+ category, and may produce one 140+ inch buck every other year. Trust me, I'm not trying to deflate anyone's hopes, I'm simply trying to avoid potential let down if someone puts in years of money and effort into trying to produce trophy-class bucks. It also emphasizes the necessity of cooperatives with adjoining londowners.

Anyhow, kudos to Quality White-tails...job well done.

 

[Trapper John]

Very good. Our property sits at around 522 acres although that number seems to fluctuate by 2 or 3 acres everytime we survey it. Our neighbor's fences have a bad habit of moving during the night. Anyway, when I first got into hunting I wanted what wasn't possible: A deer behind every tree and gigantic buck behind every bush.

Thirteen years later reality has set in deep and, to be honest, I'm totally happy with it. After reading the posts on here, and BSK was a huge part of it, we realized what was possible on the property. Since we began managing the property we have seen, in the past three years, at least one buck each year equal to or bigger than the buck in this picture:

I'll be the first to admit part of the reason we have started noticing bigger buck only in the past three years is because we're slowly becoming better hunters. We're still not good hunters, but we're better than we were when we started in 1995 and when we began actively managing the property in 2000.

Many wouldn't be happy with it, but for what we have to work with we couldn't be happier. The land produces several does a year and there's always a chance at a 2.5 year old buck and perhaps something older and bigger. We know for sure bigger bucks have been and are on the property. We've seen them several times. They're just not an every year occurence. We couldn't ask for more.

Once we came to accept what was possible and probable for the property to produce things got a lot easier and we were able to enjoy our hunting A LOT more.

 

[BigGameGuy]

Excellent post Trapper! You hit on another thing that BSK reminds us all about. Growing an old and possibly very large deer is a lot easier than actually killing it. Thus decreasing your expectations even further.

How would you like to be the Tennessee land owner who knew this guy was occasionally on his property but yet was unable to kill him. However, I imagine most passionate deer managers achieve success by seeing what they produce, not what they harvest.

(FYI - This is absolutely beyong reasonable expectations!)

 

[boweye91]

Very informative. You definently just made a sale for a copy of that Quality Whitetails. Thanks a lot.

 

[deerchaser007]

Cooperatives between neighbors is the only way you will produce older age class bucks in tn period. AND,. even in cooperatives ,. if the number of hunters outnumbers the number of older age class bucks,.. it for sure will not work to a satisfactory level. Especially when each hunter is allowed 3 bucks!! A 3 buck limit in a state were is now only thought to hold around 600,000 total deer is not a proper management decision. We are going backwards in management of the deer herd. 3 bucks is to high,.. and i'm not saying it on a quality standpoint,. i'm saying it on a future of the deer hunting experience standpoint. You guys come on here and preach about educating hunters to better understand the management of deer instead of the old school way of hunting,. then you turn around and make it easier to kill more bucks and less does. Thats the only education the deer hunters of this state need i assume.

Tell me,. after reading that article. You take the same results from that article and spread it out across this state and allow each hunter a 3 buck limit and what results would it produce??

 

[BigGameGuy]

Expecting each hunter to harvest three bucks is beyond reasonable expectations.

 

[deerchaser007]

For sure,.. By allowing each of the 200,000 deer hunters only 1 buck they would take out the whole adult part of the total ratio across the state. Heck, if you had a 50 percent success rate on bucks you took out half your adult ratio. BY taking out half the adult ratio ,. using ridgerunners post,. now you only have 1 or 2 bucks on that 680 acres that might reach 120 and it would take 4 or 5 years to produce a true older class 140 inch. BUT,.. he had 3 guys on that 680 acres also,.. somebody ain't gonna shot a buck period that reaches the 2.5 year old qdm limit. BUT,. we educate them(the hunters) by setting a 3 buck limit per hunter. That just seems odd to me. I will be honest,.. i do not understand the management goal of TWRA with the deer herd any longer. It just seems you guys are in limbo on what needs to be done in this state. You collect good data,. but don't use it to better the herd or the hunting for the future.

Well,.. i'm off topic now and will keep my mouth shut. Its like you say,. manage your property how you see fit and don't worry about everyone else. I'm no longer concerned about what the TWRA does in this state. I will continue to hunt my place the way myself and my neighbors currently manage it. Its like i tell every hunter i know, QDM might not be right for every hunter,. but it is right for the future of the herd and the quality of the deer within the herd from today til the next century. BUT,.. if you can't get your state agency on board with that,. you sure ain't gonna get all the hunters to work with it.

 

[8 POINTS OR BETTER]

I'm with you deerchaser.

 

[Tiny]

Excellent post Trapper! You hit on another thing that BSK reminds us all about. Growing an old and possibly very large deer is a lot easier than actually killing it. Thus decreasing your expectations even further.

How would you like to be the Tennessee land owner who knew this guy was occasionally on his property but yet was unable to kill him. However, I imagine most passionate deer managers achieve success by seeing what they produce, not what they harvest.

(FYI - This is absolutely beyong reasonable expectations!)

I don't know how I would feel about that but I would like to find out.

 

[BSK]

I've said it before and I'll say it again--"realistic expectations." Hunters and managers have to have realistic expectations. It seems the need to expound on different management concepts has gone through phases. First it was explaining passing up young bucks. Then the shooting does concept. Now it is realistic expectations.

 

[BSK]

Good example Trapper. Just because you can't turn your property into The Sanctuary doesn't mean you can't produce an enjoyable hunting experience. You just have to have realistic expectations.

I'll be the first to admit part of the reason we have started noticing bigger buck only in the past three years is because we're slowly becoming better hunters. We're still not good hunters, but we're better than we were when we started in 1995 and when we began actively managing the property in 2000.

And I'll be the first to admit I'm not a great hunter, and my harvests are more driven by my personal lack of skills than the deer herd. A perfect example is 2006. We had the most "shooter" bucks using our property that we've ever had, yet after spending 80+ hours in a treestand, I saw none of them. However, with the same amount of time in the field, one of my brothers-in-law saw 6 of the 11 shooters. Why the difference? In retrospect I realize he chose his stands well while I chose poorly. Something as simple as stand choice made that huge of a difference in our hunting results, and it makes you realize that the final measure of management results--what is hanging on the meat pole--can be driven far more by how you hunt the deer than by what deer you actually have to hunt.

 

[BSK]

deerchaser007,

My question would be, have you confirmed your local deer herd is in bad shape buck age structure-wise?

 

[HOOK]

There is a vast difference in what a hunter expects and what a hunter gets. You can weigh all the options, deer density + size of acerage + topograhpy + available natural forage + agricultural forage & plots, + the time needed in the field. Yet the fact remains that not every place grows trophy whitetails. Most hunt under the expectation that they will kill a monster because the commercial market sets the example of what we "WANT" to expect, which is what keeps most of us going into the woods on a regualar basis. However, those expectations rarely meet reality unless you are one of those frotunate enough to have all of the right components. Here is an example. I only have 175 acres. Every time I hunt it I would love to take a huge trophy but the fact remains that if I am honest with myself this is what I can realistcally expect.

#1- Does. I'm loaded with them and do my share of cleaning every season. My expectations are typically met every season. In reality I could take nothing but does in an entire season and be very happy with that. That is my reality.

#2- Bucks Sample A. 1.5 year olds. See them all the time. I don't shoot them. This is average for my land.

#3- Bucks Sample B. Realistic expectations for my particular area the below is the TYPICAL size I would expect to see on my place. Althought the ratio is not as hight as 1.5 year olds, this is the typical 2.5 year old that I can realistically expect to see on several occasions during a season and happens to be the size limit I have set for myself. Because of my practice I can realisticaly expect to take at least one of these per season although I have numerous occasions to take more I usually don't.

#4- Bucks Sample C. 3.5 year olds are there and I typically have several sightings in a season. The way my luck goes they are just out of bow range most of the time. But, when I see them this is what grows in my area. So I can't realistcally expect to see a 3.5 Illinois buck sporting a 150 class rack because that just isn't going to happen in my neck of the woods.

#5- Bucks Sample D. 4.5 year olds are there but sightings are rare. I know if I come into contact with one that it will not equate to a Kansas or Ohio 4.5 170 class buck, but I will gladly take this any day. This is what I epxect out of a 4.5.

#6- Bucks Sample E. 5.5 year olds. Are they there. Yes. Are they typical? No! Why? Any number of reasons: They don't survive the season, They are more noctural, I don't spend enought time in the woods to see them more often. Although I know my place will produce them my realistic expectations of seeing one is low, say 3%. When I see one it will not be that 300 pound Canadian 200 class whitetail it will be one of these.

Thus far my ratios seem well balanced. There is good forage for extremely healthy deer. I manage what I have, but in all reality this is all I expect my little piece of heaven to produce. I do not expect more, and could not ask for more.

In short....ALL of the components have to be there. You take one of the equasions out and your expectations will drematically become less realistic. THEN....On top of all that you have to add the talent of knowing how to harvest what you have. This is where Luck and Talent combine to give you your end result.

 

[BSK]

Did I miss something? Who said that we have only 600k estimated deer herd? This is the first i have heard of this.

BGG can explain it in more detail, but the TWRA's new thermal imaging census technique is indicating the deer population of the state is not as high as orginally estimated (using a different population modeling technique). Instead of around 900,000 deer, it looks like TN has more like 600,000 to 700,000 deer.

 

[deerchaser007]

deerchaser007,

My question would be, have you confirmed your local deer herd is in bad shape buck age structure-wise?

On my farm its fine. Average amount of bucks making it into the adult ratio,.. average amount making it into the 2.5 year old range,.. slightly below the average for 3.5 year old and older. Mainly due to our qdm program is just 2.5 and older. BUT,.. my success is acheived thru neighboring cooperatives. My farm is only 85 acres ,. but with my neighbors passing on 1.5 year old bucks, it has helped us considerably. To the point that one neighbor has took a 4.5 year old buck the past 2 years. I've been doing camera census on my place the past 6 years. I've got a good understanding of what is happening in the herd quality wise and age structure wise. AND,.. i think we are ok for the 9 years i've been working it. Could it be better ,. yes ,.. but i would have to get alot more neighbors involved with our lower deer density in cannon county.

The most important thing we don't do is go in and expect to kill 3 bucks for each person. It took me a long while to make some of these hunters realize that TWRA's limits is not a true indicator on the deer herd we hunt in cannon co. Especially not when you want to acheive quality within the herd. We don't have 35 deer per square mile. On average,. we hit around 20. With a lower deer density ,. you can't kill three bucks per hunter and expect the appropriate amount of bucks to make it to the older age class ,. which is important for quality within the herd. You talk to any average joe hunter and ask him about the 3 buck limit and he will tell you that if he kills 3 bucks the herd can withstand it and it not affect the quality. AND,.. he thinks all hunters in the state can do this. When you educate them on why this can't happen,. it really opens there eyes to how poorly the limits reflect what the herd can handle on a statewide level. Do you know how many hunters actually believe they can kill 3 does a day all season long and the deer herd will be fine. AND,. they believe the state has that many deer to shoot. If TWRA wants to manage expectations ,.. they need to set limits on more realistic goals for every individual hunter in this state. A hunter believing he can harvest 3 bucks a season and 3 does a day for the season is not realistic.

Sorry ,.. got off topic again. BUT,.. like i said ,. my localized area age structure on bucks is average for a average QDM program in a lower deer density area.. BUT,.. not everything has to be about me and me alone. I'm the type to stick up for others who do not have the hunting that i currently have. I know several other hunters that simply cannot manage their property cause there neighbors kill way to many deer for a lower deer density area. AND,.. the only thing that can and will help them is TWRA set realistic limits for each hunter so herd quality can be acheived. And using the old saying that TWRA should not force hunters into qdm is crazy. If qdm is really what is best for the herd, thats what should be in place. The problem is TWRA views qdm as trophy management like alot of other hunters who do not understand qdm concepts. I know this is were you and i disagree. You think qdm should not be involved on a statewide level. BUT,.. i say that its time TN got with all the other states that now put qdm concepts in place through statewide limits. Its better for the herd today and for tomorrow. I think states such as PA,TX,KY and GA have set a positive example for qdm through there state agencies programs. AND,. its time TN followed. Not just for us qdm hunters,.. but for every hunter that steps in the woods today and the hunter that steps in the woods 25 years from today.
Dang it,.. off topic again.

 

[Boone 58]

What a BUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Boone 58]

bsk, i read something like that just recently!!
Hmmmmmmmmmmm,,,,,,cant remember where?
But it was in the last few days!

 

[Tiny]

Did I miss something? Who said that we have only 600k estimated deer herd? This is the first i have heard of this.

BGG can explain it in more detail, but the TWRA's new thermal imaging census technique is indicating the deer population of the state is not as high as orginally estimated (using a different population modeling technique). Instead of around 900,000 deer, it looks like TN has more like 600,000 to 700,000 deer.

Thats interesting.

 

[richmanbarbeque]

Hook, That was worth reading twice.... Good post!

 

[RidgeRunner]

According the the Quality Whitetails article, in average habitat, with an advanced age-structure, a 3,000 acre property has the potential to produce approximately TWO bucks every year that exceed 140 inches (10 in the 120+ category). In Ridgerunner's situation, since he has 680 acres, simply divide these estimates by four. He should be able to consistently produce 2-3 bucks in the 120+ category, and may produce one 140+ inch buck every other year.

Thanks for this post BGG. That gives us a good base line to work with. According to my "limited" camera surveys this past fall, we're very close to that mark. With the habitat improvements made to the property we may even exceed that estimate. Of course, we have about 1500 acres adjoining our property that has very little or no hunting pressure, for us to draw deer off of.