ferg
Well-Known Member
WE haven't had a drop of rain - and don't look for any for another week at least - 
ferg....
ferg....
It's Going to RAIN!
- Thread starter TheLBLman
- Start date
TheLBLman
Well-Known Member
Well, when we made the decision to plant several acres this past weekend, there WAS quite a bit of rain forecast within the coming week (for Stewart Co.). But AFTER we planted, most of that "forecast" is now revised to just "hot & sunny"! Dern hurricanes!
Unfortunately or fortunately, I'm not sure which, we did get some rain yesterday evening in Stewart County. In one area, I'd say a good half inch fell over about 30 minutes, yet nearby it was barely enough to settle the dust, but probably enough to germinate what we planted, only to sprout in a dust bowl. Most of our freshley planted plots were in the areas that just got the dust settled. Oh, well. Maybe that "lake effect" will become the saving grace before the plantings sprout and die.
Unfortunately or fortunately, I'm not sure which, we did get some rain yesterday evening in Stewart County. In one area, I'd say a good half inch fell over about 30 minutes, yet nearby it was barely enough to settle the dust, but probably enough to germinate what we planted, only to sprout in a dust bowl. Most of our freshley planted plots were in the areas that just got the dust settled. Oh, well. Maybe that "lake effect" will become the saving grace before the plantings sprout and die.
Kirk
Well-Known Member
It had better rain. I sweated enough to supply enough water to rain on at least two of the plots.
TheLBLman
Well-Known Member
When you weren't riding around in an air-conditioned truck eating barbeque! :grin:Kirk said:It had better rain. I sweated enough to supply enough water to rain on at least two of the plots.
Believe it or not, it came a good rain over at the farmhouse, but when I started checking plots afterward, some had barely enough rain to settle the dust ---- and those dadgummed big feathered rats were having a feast. Doubt if there will be much left to germinate after a few days of turkeys gone wild.
Kirk
Well-Known Member
Guilty as charged! Who was that guy that was driving the truck?
wlt
Well-Known Member
what is the forcast for East Tn. I am in Athens and the 7 day regular forcast by the tv says no rain or slight 20% chance.
BSK
Well-Known Member
Better chances of rain in East TN than West or Middle.
TheLBLman
Well-Known Member
It actually rained again before dawn this morning in Stewart County. Not much, but more than enough to settle the dust again. The farther north in the county, the more rain fell. I'd say the early plantings (Aug 18 - 19) have now had enough rainfall to germinate. Maybe, just maybe, we're going to be lucky with these early plots.
By the way, BSK, the CainMasters came in with their heavy equiptment and you wouldn't believe how well the plots were tilled up. The ground was so hard that a 4-wheeler disc wouldn't even scratch it. But their tractors and heavy equiptment just churned it up and roto-tilled it into a fine powder about 8 to 10 inches deep. No way would we have even considered planting had we not had this ground churned up so well. Of course, I may be re-planting it all in a few weeks if there's not a good amount of rain next week, and the next, but at least the ground has been well worked up.
By the way, BSK, the CainMasters came in with their heavy equiptment and you wouldn't believe how well the plots were tilled up. The ground was so hard that a 4-wheeler disc wouldn't even scratch it. But their tractors and heavy equiptment just churned it up and roto-tilled it into a fine powder about 8 to 10 inches deep. No way would we have even considered planting had we not had this ground churned up so well. Of course, I may be re-planting it all in a few weeks if there's not a good amount of rain next week, and the next, but at least the ground has been well worked up.
BSK
Well-Known Member
Does Morgan have a rotary tiller?
BSK
Well-Known Member
I hate to predict this because every time the 10-day models suggest precip out at 8-10 days, once those dates draw nearer, the prediction for rain disappears. But right now the 10-day models suggest an opening of the Gulf next week and a much improved chance of rain Sunday through Wednesday. The models are also predicting the first big Canadian High Pressure to push into TN by next Wednesday/Thursday (Aug. 29/30) with cooler weather.
TheLBLman
Well-Known Member
Yes, and it's a big one.BSK said:
The CainMasters bush-hogged our plots first,
Then they dug them deep with a chisel plow --- keep in mind they're using 4-wheel drive tractors, not 4-wheelers pulling dinky little toy disks.
Lastly, they went over them with this rotary tiller, which left about 10 inches of powdery soil for planting. So in view of the rain in the forecast, decided to go ahead and do some early planting.
And that's exactly what happened over this past weekend.BSK said:
We decided to plant, and then when I checked the weather post-planting, all that rain forecast for late this week was no longer in the forecast.
Now, things are looking up a bit with the current 7-day forecast.
But if we don't get substantial rainfall within the next week, my early plots are screwed and will have to be replanted.
BSK
Well-Known Member
And that's why I'm, not going to plant until we get SUBSTANTIAL rain. The soil is so dry that even a 1/2" rain isn't going to help. We will need several inches of rain over several days to improve soil moisture enough for proper plant growth.
A chisel plow and a rotary tiller....
I better get on the phone to Morgan.
A chisel plow and a rotary tiller....
I better get on the phone to Morgan.
TheLBLman
Well-Known Member
Hey, I agree with you, just thought this was a chance worth taking this time. I would not have done this if were not anticipating a mast failure. But if there is a mast failure, there will be the additional risk factor of later plantings being eaten up before they get growing?BSK said:
IF we get enough rain over the next week and the next, that will be 2 to 3 additional weeks of early growth before the earliest dates I'd normally plant. This could provide quite a bit more forage mass, and maybe prevent the deer from wiping the plots out before they get going. Three or four years ago I did this (August planting) with some Biologic Maximum, and lucked out on the rain, and by the time bowseason opened, had thick knee-high plots.
I just figured worse case, plenty of time to plant them over.
BSK
Well-Known Member
And the very low biomass out there right now is why I plan to 1) make sure I have cover crops in all my fall plots (plants that grow fast but die-off with the first frost--to give deer food to eat while protecting my main fall/winter crops); and 2) over-seed pretty heavily due the heavy browse pressure the plots will receive soon after germination.
wlt
Well-Known Member
What type of cover crops BSK and what will you be overseeding (the same cover crops?)BSK said:
BSK
Well-Known Member
Buckwheat works well, but if you want to spend some money, soybeans work even better as a cover crop.
HOOK
Well-Known Member
We're still only looking at a 10 -20% chance of scattered precip. Not much to get excited about. Sure was hoping a troph would develop to push some Dean reminants up here but that won't happen.
BSK
Well-Known Member
BSK said:
It figures. As soon as I post this, the long-range models change and predict a much lower chance of precip next week. Now they are still predicting that first big Canadian High to push in midweek, but they also now predict rain for everywhere except Middle and West TN.
TheLBLman
Well-Known Member
It's amazing how the 10-day forecast changes from day-to-day.
It's an essentially worthless exercise to even look at it.
Yesterday it would predict 3 days of rain, today it will predict no rain at all, tomorrow it will predict 3 days of rain ---- duh, of course it's either going to rain or it's not, but the longterm forecasts are typically worthless.
But now your pal Al has this global warming thing figured out, as he's claiming to make accurate 100-year forecasts, while you weathermen can't even give me an accurate 10-day forecast! :grin:
It's an essentially worthless exercise to even look at it.
Yesterday it would predict 3 days of rain, today it will predict no rain at all, tomorrow it will predict 3 days of rain ---- duh, of course it's either going to rain or it's not, but the longterm forecasts are typically worthless.
But now your pal Al has this global warming thing figured out, as he's claiming to make accurate 100-year forecasts, while you weathermen can't even give me an accurate 10-day forecast! :grin:
BSK
Well-Known Member
Honestly, it is virtually impossible to make accurate forecast of rain during a time of year that the majority of rainfall comes from afternoon thunderstorms. Their development is far too random and localized. All you can really predict is the right atmospheric conditions for thunderstorm development over a general area.
The 10-day models are actually getting amazingly good at predicting the movement of High and Low pressure systems during the fall, winter and spring, but summer weather is a crap-shoot.
Considering the very best 1-3 month climate models have an accuracy rate of around only 55% (just a hair better than guessing), the concept of multi-year climate models is ludicrous. No climate model has EVER predicted the following year's weather accurately.
The 10-day models are actually getting amazingly good at predicting the movement of High and Low pressure systems during the fall, winter and spring, but summer weather is a crap-shoot.
Considering the very best 1-3 month climate models have an accuracy rate of around only 55% (just a hair better than guessing), the concept of multi-year climate models is ludicrous. No climate model has EVER predicted the following year's weather accurately.
