Finally.... prevalence rate

[megalomaniac]

Here's the numbers as of yesterday according to TWRA at the presentation in Bolivar.

224 deer tested in Fayette and Hardeman with results returned.... 24 positive... 900 pending...

Initial prevalence rates are 10%. Not good. If numbers hold up, expect another 90 to come back positive in the hot zone.

Bright side... Mcnairy has zero out of 50 resulted back. Another 200 pending.

Another interesting note.... this was the first year of 'risk based sampling'. Prior random sampling methods were woefully inadequate and allowed the disease to be missed.

TWRA did not expound on the definition of 'risk based sampling', but I'm sure they took a page from MS....

In MS, prior to the detection of CWD last year, increased number of samples were obtained from counties with more high fence enclosures.

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[wmd]

I missed the CWD presentation, so thanks for posting that.

It was posted before, but the TWRA CWD Response Plan has an appendix (Appendix A) that describes the risk-based sampling methodology that was implemented this year - with the increased focus on counties such as Fayette and Hardeman.

https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/twra/ ... e_Plan.pdf

 

[megalomaniac]

Ty for posting that....

Exactly what MS changed to the year prior to discovering CWD.... counties with higher densities and more high fence enclosures get sampled at higher rates than lower risk counties

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[fairchaser]

I went to the meeting last night. It was packed and probably double the crowd they were expecting. This shows the interest and concern for the future of deer hunting in this part of the state. They did an excellent job and covered many aspects and answered lots of questions. Most was rehash for what most of us who have been following this on TNDeer but I'm sure new information for many who were there. Some excellent questions came out that stumped the panel. They worked through it the best they could. It became clear that the strategy for dealing with CWD is containment. No current plan for culling but it was noted that could be effective in slowing the spread. There is no question it's here, been here and here to stay. Don't get your hopes up for a fix or cure. You will see some cure in the human illness side first since that's where the research and money is. No cure is in sight. So, get used to a new normal. For me the best news is that the prevalence rate is not off the charts. The herd can grow and we can still hunt. Over time, the herd age structure will be younger. That's not great news for QDM but there will still be big bucks to chase. A 5.5 year old buck will be even a bigger trophy and greater rarity. This is a new age of deer hunting but it's not the end of the world.

 

[MUP]

So what is the human illness part?

 

[DaveB]

I will assume the human cure is centered around CJD (Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease). Should they get a cure/preventative for that, the vCJD (v=variant and that covers CWD I believe) could be a small step.

The question remains will CWD jump species or has it already.

There must be a trigger of some type that allows a deer to come in contact with a corrupted prion and subsequently become infected. DNA? And that trigger should be relative easy to ID. Since they have 810 healthy deer and 90 infected, the investigation could bear down on something the 90 have and the 810 do not.

I will remind everyone of historical basis for complete extermination of a species within a given area:
1. the chicken kill-off in the USA not too long ago
2. The duck/chicken kill-off in China
3. Extermination of entire cattle herds due to hoof and mouth disease.

If the intent is to curtail expansion there is only one way.

 

[poorhunter]

One thing to look at is the rate of Alsheimers. My understanding is that it is similar to vCJD. Deaths from Alzheimer's has doubled in the last ten years. Could be related?

 

[fairchaser]

So what is the human illness part?

CJD is one and Alzheimer's possibly. I'm no Dr so don't quote me on that, but this disease has been around since 1967 and while they have experimented on cures, all have been failures. Even if they found a cure, implementing it across a wild landscape, is almost impossible.

 

[GaryLBumpus]

Will people still be able to feed deer in their backyards in those counties?

 

[MickThompson]

A bird feeder must be within 100' of a house to be legal. Feeding any wildlife beyond that distance is illegal.


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[muddyboots]

This all just stinks to high heaven.

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

So what is the human illness part?

CJD is one and Alzheimer's possibly. I'm no Dr so don't quote me on that, but this disease has been around since 1967 and while they have experimented on cures, all have been failures. Even if they found a cure, implementing it across a wild landscape, is almost impossible.

It was identified in 1967. It didn't fall out the sky. Nobody knows how long it's been around. Maybe forever. That's the problem is states like TN and AL will make the same mistakes other states made and like those states they'll accomplish nothing but killing a bunch of deer.

That's my and thousands of other hunters fear. And after talking to friends that work In game and fish dept I other states we can only hope the panic is short lived before they destroy a resource so many spent a career to build.

 

[JJ3]

I went to the meeting last night. It was packed and probably double the crowd they were expecting. This shows the interest and concern for the future of deer hunting in this part of the state. They did an excellent job and covered many aspects and answered lots of questions. Most was rehash for what most of us who have been following this on TNDeer but I'm sure new information for many who were there. Some excellent questions came out that stumped the panel. They worked through it the best they could. It became clear that the strategy for dealing with CWD is containment. No current plan for culling but it was noted that could be effective in slowing the spread. There is no question it's here, been here and here to stay. Don't get your hopes up for a fix or cure. You will see some cure in the human illness side first since that's where the research and money is. No cure is in sight. So, get used to a new normal. For me the best news is that the prevalence rate is not off the charts. The herd can grow and we can still hunt. Over time, the herd age structure will be younger. That's not great news for QDM but there will still be big bucks to chase. A 5.5 year old buck will be even a bigger trophy and greater rarity. This is a new age of deer hunting but it's not the end of the world.

Right on!

I watched the meeting off Facebook later last night and thought it was a good presentation with a lot of questions answered. I think TWRA is doing a great job and I appreciate the effort to keep us hunters informed.

We may have experienced our best hunting already, but we will be able to hunt. We'll have to change some of our practices (like feed or salt licks in front of cameras), we'll change how we handle and process deer, but we can hunt. And I believe TWRA is going to do what they can to ensure that legacy.

 

[DRSJ35]

Is there not testing being done in any other part of the state.Virginia also has CWD and it borders TN.Remember they said what brought on the testing alert or emergency plan.Was a positive test was confirmed in Mississippi and the 25 mile radius from Confirmed case went into TN.That doesn't seem highly proactive.Cause It could easily be In other parts of the state cause there is more bordering states than Mississippi that are CWD positive.

 

[MickThompson]

Is there not testing being done in any other part of the state.Virginia also has CWD and it borders TN.Remember they said what brought on the testing alert or emergency plan.Was a positive test was confirmed in Mississippi and the 25 mile radius from Confirmed case went into TN.That doesn't seem highly proactive.Cause It could easily be In other parts of the state cause there is more bordering states than Mississippi that are CWD positive.

They've sampled every county already this year. They prioritize more sampling based on the risk assessment.


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