From personal observations, Hickman co is spotty, as is Williamson co where I live. Both counties have a ton of birds, but they're not on every ridge or creek bottom in the county, they're in pockets. Whether a decline from years past is normal or not, I don't know.
The local flock in my backyard has just about disappeared in the past 5 years, but I can drive right down the road and see plenty of birds that have been doing just fine. Multiple theories as to why, but no solid explanation.
Statewide regulations can only do so much to help a local flocks decline when we are already limited to bearded birds only and most of the breeding happens before season opens. A local problem is not a statewide problem. Especially when we really have no idea what caused the decline(s).
You could say it's predators, chicken houses, hay cutting, heavy hunting pressure, etc etc. But I guarantee someone can always name another location that has one or more of those factors, where turkeys are still hatching out and raising healthy poult numbers every year and are doing just fine. I know I can.
We don't have a straight answer to local declines yet. If we did, they wouldn't be conducting studies all over the eastern US on wild turkeys. Hopefully we will find some answers in the future. I think TFT has the right mindset and I fully support their efforts.
