3 bird limit???

[muddyboots]

It will scare then. Pile of 2 year olds from last year. A ton of Jake's last year.

Worst here I've ever seen.

 

[Setterman]

One thing that's been obvious for decades is the way our seasons are set. There is no adjusting to actual bird population fluctuations rather idiotic knee jerk reg changes with no real scientific basis. Couple of bad hatches in a row, lower the limit. Giant hatches like the last two, bump it up.

Instead twra in its brilliance left a large limit when we had multiple hatch failures in a row and the results showed.

The people tasked with managing our resources couldn't manage a lemonade stand in their own front yard

 

[Iglow]

I don't know where the preoccupation with killing comes from. Isn't 2 enough? Turkey hunting is as close as there is to catch and release in hunting, isn't the whole thing with turkey hunting calling a bird into shotgun range? Or … is it really about the social media pics and being able to say you tagged out to anybody that will listen?

 

[Southern Sportsman]

The data is pretty clear that the delayed opener didn't do what it was hoping to accomplish.

To what data are you referring?

 

[paboom]

To what data are you referring?

Here is one of the many.

https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/10095/
Google is your friend.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

There is no data at all to show a delay helps but there is a study and data that disproves the theory that a delayed season helps any with reproductive benefits. It has been posted here several times, hundreds of collared hens involved.

Did you actually review the data? Of just read the student's abstract?

The DATA shows a 21.6% increase in nest success in the three study counties (Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles) following the delay. Simultaneously, the two "control" counties (Maury and Bedford), which undoubtedly saw increased early hunting pressure from people who couldn't hunt in the study counties, saw a 4.9% decrease in nest success.

I'm not a statistician, but that seems like data indicating that the season delay may have helped.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Here is one of the many.

https://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_gradthes/10095/
Google is your friend.

That's a student's thesis paper. It contains data, but it is not, itself, data. If you read the actual data therein, you may be surprised.

 

[deerfever]

I don't know where the preoccupation with killing comes from. Isn't 2 enough? Turkey hunting is as close as there is to catch and release in hunting, isn't the whole thing with turkey hunting calling a bird into shotgun range? Or … is it really about the social media pics and being able to say you tagged out to anybody that will listen?

When the limit was 4 , 6.4 percent of people killed the limit, when it was 3, 9 percent killed the limit. You are correct most people kill either 1 or 2 it's always around 90 percent or more each year. We have killed around 30,000 birds for the last 23 years no matter the limit, except 2020 when we killed more for obvious reasons of Covid. So yes most kill 1 or 2.

 

[REN]

I don't know where the preoccupation with killing comes from. Isn't 2 enough? Turkey hunting is as close as there is to catch and release in hunting, isn't the whole thing with turkey hunting calling a bird into shotgun range? Or … is it really about the social media pics and being able to say you tagged out to anybody that will listen?

I get your point but at the same time I enjoy to hunt and spend time in the field. Im not a social media warrior by any stretch but if Im fortunate enough to harvest 2 birds in 3 days then Im done. However if the limit (and population in my spots) allows 1 more then I could stretch out that last one longer. If I eat the tag because that 3rd one didnt happen EXACTLY how I wanted it to then Im happy to eat the tag (and have pleny in the past when it was limit of 4). I hunt solo 90% of the season so I dont get lots of opportunities to go after I have used my tags.
to say KILLING isnt part of the hunt would be lying, but I will say KILLING isnt a measurement of success of a hunt by any stretch

 

[paboom]

That's a student's thesis paper. It contains data, but it is not, itself, data. If you read the actual data therein, you may be surprised.

I have read it. A couple times actually. I'm at work so I don't have time to spell it out, but here's a quick snip-it of part of the results.

Hatchability averaged 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.90) over all 6 years. Before the delay,hatchability was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.99) in no-delay counties and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.9) indelayed counties. After the delay, hatchability was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.00) in no-delay29counties and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.94) in delayed counties (Table 2.2). The hatchability model indicated no difference before and after the season delay in delayed counties compared with nodelay counties (n = 86, β = 0.82, SEβ = 0.84, P Interaction, 82 = 0.33, Table 2.3).

This study is only 103 pages so it's an easy read. I would encourage people to read it themselves and form their own conclusion.

 

[Bgoodman30]

I don't know where the preoccupation with killing comes from. Isn't 2 enough? Turkey hunting is as close as there is to catch and release in hunting, isn't the whole thing with turkey hunting calling a bird into shotgun range? Or … is it really about the social media pics and being able to say you tagged out to anybody that will listen?

This is still a turkey hunting forum right? Some of us like to hunt and kill and could care less about social media. I like to hunt and be in the woods. I love eating and feeding wild turkey to my family its one of the leanest and highest protein meat you can consume. Do you know anyone who plays catch and release turkey? If we aren't hurting the resource why should the limit not be higher? As you can see the number of folks who limit out is really small and spread out statewide..

I am sure if the internet was prevalent when quail took a nosedive hunters would have be yelling and screaming to lower limits too but would it have worked...?

 

[muddyboots]

One thing that's been obvious for decades is the way our seasons are set. There is no adjusting to actual bird population fluctuations rather idiotic knee jerk reg changes with no real scientific basis. Couple of bad hatches in a row, lower the limit. Giant hatches like the last two, bump it up.

Instead twra in its brilliance left a large limit when we had multiple hatch failures in a row and the results showed.

The people tasked with managing our resources couldn't manage a lemonade stand in their own front yard

Absolutely. They took what was I'm gonna say was as good turkey hunting as anywhere else and ruined it. I heard all my life how great LBL was so I put in for it. Drew it and left after first morning. Hunting on my local lease was way better. It's just sad to me. Anybody that has not been turkey hunting for 20 years doesn't know how food it was.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Did you actually review the data? Of just read the student's abstract?

The DATA shows a 21.6% increase in nest success in the three study counties (Wayne, Lawrence, and Giles) following the delay. Simultaneously, the two "control" counties (Maury and Bedford), which undoubtedly saw increased early hunting pressure from people who couldn't hunt in the study counties, saw a 4.9% decrease in nest success.

I'm not a statistician, but that seems like data indicating that the season delay may have helped.

Those counties populations took a nosedive and look to be coming back strongly. I believe this is just nature doing its thing the habitat is still great down there.. We always think we're in control but that's far from the truth..

 

[Southern Sportsman]

I have read it. A couple times actually. I'm at work so I don't have time to spell it out, but here's a quick snip-it of part of the results.

Hatchability averaged 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.90) over all 6 years. Before the delay, hatchability was 0.91 (95% CI: 0.84, 0.99) in no-delay counties and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.78, 0.9) in delayed counties. After the delay, hatchability was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.67, 1.00) in no-delay counties and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.94) in delayed counties (Table 2.2). The hatchability model indicated no difference before and after the season delay in delayed counties compared with no delay counties (n = 86, β = 0.82, SEβ = 0.84, P Interaction, 82 = 0.33, Table 2.3).

This study is only 103 pages so it's an easy read. I would encourage people to read it themselves and form their own conclusion.

Hatchability is one data point. The numbers above show a small improvement in hatchability in the three delayed counties (.84 to .87). Granted, that's not a big change. But during the same timeframe, the non-delayed counties had a decrease in hatchability (.91 to .85).

But I think nest success is more to the point.

"nest success was 0.204 before the delay and 0.194 after the delay in no-delay counties. In delayed counties, nest success was 0.287 before the delay and 0.349 after."

^^ ^ That describes a 21.6% increase in nest success in the delayed counties in the two years immediately following the delay. During those same two years, the non-delayed counties (Maury and Bedford) saw a 4.9% decrease in nest success.


Of the people claiming that there is "no data showing that the delay helps," someone please explain how a significant increase in nest success immediately following the delay is anything other than "data showing that the delay helps."

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Those counties populations took a nosedive and look to be coming back strongly. I believe this is just nature doing its thing the habitat is still great down there.. We always think we're in control but that's far from the truth..

Lol. . . "just nature doing its thing" is a convenient excuse for someone claiming that there is no data showing that the delay helps. Other than "nature doing its thing," can you think of any other variables that may have changed during that timeframe?

 

[CritterGitter]

Need to kill them early before they breed hens and all their gobbles are used up.

spring limits are irrelevant to population growth or decline, as long as only adult males (no jakes allowed) are removed AFTER bulk of breeding has occurred.

I agree with the 2nd part of your read . The 1st not so much . I think last year was absolutely perfect and i hope this year is a repeat. Gobblers breeding hens without pressure . Laying hens and lonesome longbeards on opening day ..... i just got chills thinking about it.

 

[Bgoodman30]

Lol. . . "just nature doing its thing" is a convenient excuse for someone claiming that there is no data showing that the delay helps. Other than "nature doing its thing," can you think of any other variables that may have changed during that timeframe?

You claim increased hunting pressure caused a decline in nest success in control counties. I am claiming that a down population has a way of rebounding. I can also argue that your perceived increase in pressure caused decline in nest success a convenient excuse but there is no point in arguing about opinions.

Time will tell whether the statewide delay worked.... I don't see it. Of course I hope I am wrong.

 

[REN]

I do wonder (obviously no way to really know) but how much success for hunters and hatch % increase had to do with an unusual spring. March and April were VERY warm and fairly dry. Had a very early green up and spring weather. First 2 weeks of season were sunny and warm (ideal conditions to the average hunter) just seems like the delay opened at ideal weather for most folks.

depending on the weather this year we may end up with some data to look at that. However the looks of this spring and last are going in the same direction. Warm and spring is ahead of schedule.

 

[Iglow]

When the limit was 4 , 6.4 percent of people killed the limit, when it was 3, 9 percent killed the limit. You are correct most people kill either 1 or 2 it's always around 90 percent or more each year. We have killed around 30,000 birds for the last 23 years no matter the limit, except 2020 when we killed more for obvious reasons of Covid. So yes most kill 1 or 2.

I hope you and the data is right. But you know how people are. These birds are decoyed , baited , shot and killed, shot and lost and… poached. I don't trust some to play by the rules and do what's right.
I guess my tendency towards protecting them comes from living in a time when there were no turkeys and experiencing the near miracle of a fast return to abundance. Also from seeing quail go from huntable populations to near extinction. I don't want to see the turkeys disappear too.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

You claim increased hunting pressure caused a decline in nest success in control counties. I am claiming that a down population has a way of rebounding. I can also argue that your perceived increase in pressure caused decline in nest success a convenient excuse but there is no point in arguing about opinions.

Time will tell whether the statewide delay worked.... I don't see it. Of course I hope I am wrong.

I'm not claiming that the increased pressure is all, or even primarily to blame for the decrease in the control counties. It didn't help, but that displacement pressure was spread over more than two counties. What I am saying is that the seasons were adjusted to study the effect of a delay. Immediately following the delay, nest success in the study counties increased significantly, while nest success in the control counties decreased. So, despite the victory laps from those who are against the delay, there IS data from this very study showing a clear correlation between the season delay and improved nest success.

We can try to explain it away as being unrelated to the season delay. But that comes at the risk of sounding just like the liberals insisting that a nationwide increase in all-cause mortality in the year immediately following the covid vaccines had nothing to do with the covid vaccines.

 

[Setterman]

I'm going to need to see a lot more data to convince me that allowing birds to breed longer doesn't result in better nest initiation.

 

[knightrider]

Hatchability is one data point. The numbers above show a small improvement in hatchability in the three delayed counties (.84 to .87). Granted, that's not a big change. But during the same timeframe, the non-delayed counties had a decrease in hatchability (.91 to .85).

But I think nest success is more to the point.

"nest success was 0.204 before the delay and 0.194 after the delay in no-delay counties. In delayed counties, nest success was 0.287 before the delay and 0.349 after."

^^ ^ That describes a 21.6% increase in nest success in the delayed counties in the two years immediately following the delay. During those same two years, the non-delayed counties (Maury and Bedford) saw a 4.9% decrease in nest success.


Of the people claiming that there is "no data showing that the delay helps," please explain how a significant increase in nest success immediately following the delay is anything other than "data showing that the delay helps."

And every predator out their appreciates the effort, until poults make it to adults it doesnt mean

 

[Bgoodman30]

I'm not claiming that the increased pressure is all, or even primarily to blame for the decrease in the control counties. It didn't help, but that displacement pressure was spread over more than two counties. What I am saying is that the seasons were adjusted to study the effect of a delay, immediately following the delay, nest success in the study counties increased significantly and the control counties decreased. So, despite the victory laps from those who are against the delay, there IS data from this very study showing a clear correlation between the season delay and improved nest success.

We can try to explain it away as being unrelated to the season delay. But that comes at the risk of sounding just like the liberals insisting that a nationwide increase in all-cause mortality in the year immediately following the covid vaccines had nothing to do with the covid vaccines.

Fair. Time will tell I hope I am wrong. When will we have the nesting data for 2023 including southern middle? But also lot of turkey hunters sound a lot like liberals clamoring for more government control.. "who needs more than 2 turkeys? "who needs an AR15?" lol

 

[scn]

Fair. Time will tell I hope I am wrong. When will we have the nesting data for 2023 including southern middle? But also lot of turkey hunters sound a lot like liberals clamoring for more government control.. "who needs more than 2 turkeys? "who needs an AR15?" lol

Spoken like a died in the wool grip-n-grinner. It's all about the kill!

 

[deerhunter10]

Fair. Time will tell I hope I am wrong. When will we have the nesting data for 2023 including southern middle? But also lot of turkey hunters sound a lot like liberals clamoring for more government control.. "who needs more than 2 turkeys? "who needs an AR15?" lol

What a wild take. Nothing like getting blasted for caring about an animal you want your kids and kids, kids to be able to hunt.

We took for granted the resource 15 years ago and we are paying for it. It's clear to see who is worried about it and who doesn't care if turkeys are the next Quail. Because they lose a tag or season is delayed by a week or 2.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Fair. Time will tell I hope I am wrong. When will we have the nesting data for 2023 including southern middle? But also lot of turkey hunters sound a lot like liberals clamoring for more government control.. "who needs more than 2 turkeys? "who needs an AR15?" lol

I hope time will tell. My fear is they will abandon the season delay next year, despite positive results. In which case, time may not tell.

I've asked about the status report for 2023. A commissioner friend of mine asked and was told it should be released by Shields' office "very soon."

 

[Wrangler95]

Does this 3 bird limit go in effect this spring season or next?

 

[scn]

Does this 3 bird limit go in effect this spring season or next?

A three bird limit for 2025 has been PROPOSED. Nothing has been voted on and set in a Proclamation.

The Proclamation setting the limit of two for 2024 was done in April of 2023. I guess in theory they could do an emergency change, but that is unlikely with the info in the current Hunting Guide for this season.

But, it really wouldn't surprise me, either, as it is pretty obvious that the agency cares more about the $$$$ than a turkey flock in decline.

 

[Wrangler95]

A three bird limit for 2025 has been PROPOSED. Nothing has been voted on and set in a Proclamation.

The Proclamation setting the limit of two for 2024 was done in April of 2023. I guess in theory they could do an emergency change, but that is unlikely with the info in the current Hunting Guide for this season.

But, it really wouldn't surprise me, either, as it is pretty obvious that the agency cares more about the $$$$ than a turkey flock in decline.

Thanks,yes TWRA cares about the money more than the turkeys!I'm totally against raising the limit to three.My county has been hit hard with the decline in the population,it used to be great place for turkey hunting!

 

[Bgoodman30]

I hope time will tell. My fear is they will abandon the season delay next year, despite positive results. In which case, time may not tell.

I've asked about the status report for 2023. A commissioner friend of mine asked and was told it should be released by Shields' office "very soon."

What is your personal observation? I judge a successful hatch by Jakes observations now. I am not seeing them. Very few actually.