Variability of older buck sightings, mornings versus evenings

[BSK]

One of the things I track over the years is hunter-collected deer observation rates (deer observed per hunting hour) for morning hunts versus evening hunts. What I find interesting is how highly variable these are from year to year on the same property for the same month. This is especially true of older buck (2 1/2+ years old) sighting rates. One year, morning older buck sighting rates will be several factors higher than evening rates. The next year, just the opposite. For the life of me, I can't find a reason for these annual fluctuations. I've looked at quality of the acorn crop and numerous other factors, but I can't find any statistical link to any obvious factor. I will even see trends over time, where for several years, one or the other hunting period (mornings or evenings) is much better than the other. Then the trend reverses itself for several years. I'm at a loss to explain this.

Any ideas...?

 

[catman529]

I'd guess it has something to do with the hunters and luck of the draw. Not that deer favor mornings one year and evenings the next, but that's just what the hunters see. Do you not have any years where the morning/evening ratio is fairly balanced?

 

[BSK]

I'd guess it has something to do with the hunters and luck of the draw. Not that deer favor mornings one year and evenings the next, but that's just what the hunters see. Do you not have any years where the morning/evening ratio is fairly balanced?

Yes, some years it is very balanced.

I've been wondering about the stand location angle. Perhaps the types of stand set-ups may produce a perceived difference versus a "real" difference. I would need to look at trail-camera data to see if years where hunters see far more older bucks at one time period versus the other is a real pattern or just a hunting location driven pattern.

 

[TNGunsmoke]

Just a guess, maybe temperature variations to some degree.

 

[Lost Lake]

The properties around my main hunting grounds have changed a lot over the years. One year, a property a half mile away will plant a new crop, or another a quarter mile away will timber major portions of it. Seems like it really changes movement pre and post rut for me.

When the timber was cut on the family farm six years ago, I noticed older buck sightings later in the mornings in the newer thick cover all during the season.

So my guess, for myself, is cover and new food availability influences it heavily every few years.

 

[catman529]

Yes, some years it is very balanced.

I've been wondering about the stand location angle. Perhaps the types of stand set-ups may produce a perceived difference versus a "real" difference. I would need to look at trail-camera data to see if years where hunters see far more older bucks at one time period versus the other is a real pattern or just a hunting location driven pattern.

Trail cam data would also help, but then again, how many deer walk 30 yards past a camera and never get their picture taken. I'm guessing there's some GPS radio collar data out there that might show a little more.

My guess is that deer in general, especially older bucks are never completely predictable. One year there may be more morning sightings just because the hunters so happened to be in the right place on the right days, same with evenings. Kind of like how one year you can have really good rut hunting and see lots of chasing, but the next year have a crappy season and not see much rutting activity. The rut still happens, bucks still chase and breed does, but you happened to be in all the wrong places at the wrong times.

 

[fairchaser]

In general, at least on Ames, hunters prefer to hunt mornings over evenings. Something to do with dealing with a downed animal after dark. Over years, I believe mature bucks have fewer encounters with hunters in the evenings and therefore prefer to move then. If you even all the data out and look at mature buck movement per hunter/hour, on Ames, I believe more will occur in the evenings.

As far as why it varies from year to year in your area, I would guess, available food, temps, rut patterns and hunting pressure all have effects.

 

[BSK]

Changes in food sources makes perfect sense, as in a hardwood environment, feeding on acorns produces a very different movement pattern compared to feeding on browse and food plots in a poor acorn year. However, I looked at that angle and there is not a pattern for poor acorn years versus bumper acorn years. And as for habitat changes, that may explain some of the longer-term trends, but not the drastic changes from year to year. The habitat doesn't change that fast.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

When it comes to different properties across the landscape, I would say habitat contrasts and hunting tactics within those habitats are the culprit. Broadly speaking, I'd say ag country sees much more evening movement, and partly due to the hunting tactics of hunters in that area (and rightfully so). More hunters will produce more sightings (generally). In strictly hardwood habitat, at least for me, food is a factor, but the #1 thing I key on is travel corridors. Deer in our area tend to stay on their feet more in the mornings than they do in the evenings. I have only killed 2 older bucks on our place in the evenings. The rest have been in the mornings and this has been over the last 21 years. I know you're referring to sightings on the same property - we are constantly changing our habitat and each year begins a new stage in the growing process. I think that is a major factor (select cuts growth each year. food plot production from year to year, acorn production year to year, deer numbers each particular year, etc....). So, as far as sightings on the same property fluctuating over the years, probably a combination of a food and weather working together being the driving force.

 

[BSK]

I'll have to look at the weather angle. That's a possibility. But again, with the habitat angle, often the habitat doesn't change drastically from year to year, but the sighting rates morning versus evenings do. We will have a year where older buck sightings are virtually all mornings. Then the next year, almost all evenings. Then the following year back to all mornings. And that will occur in between any major habitat changes (timber cuts, new food plots, etc.). I've looked and these up and down mornings versus evening years and they are not linked to good or poor acorn crops. Stands are set up similarly from year to year (what features and habitat the stands are covering).

I'll look at the moon angle, but I've been tracking sighting rates versus whether the moon is up evenings or mornings (waxing versus waning), and that doesn't seem to play much of a role.

 

[backyardtndeer]

I haven't recorded and tracked data like you have, but weather is in my mind probably one of the biggest factors, at least in my experience on the small farm I own.

 

[BSK]

I haven't recorded and tracked data like you have, but weather is in my mind probably one of the biggest factors, at least in my experience on the small farm I own.

I'll start looking into the weather angle more. That has possibilities.

 

[DoubleRidge]

Very interesting topic....and I know for a fact I do not have the answer to the question.....I've studied on this very topic recently....on our place in years past mornings have been much more productive for mature bucks killed vs evenings.....until last year and this year....now evenings have been more productive? What changed last year and this year? We've made significant improvements to the habitat...timber stand improvement projects, added more acreage of food plot, etc....but none of it directly correlates? I mean we've killed and seen mature bucks in the evening before....but mornings have always been clearly more productive....until last year and this year....where evenings have now been much more productive for sightings and killing....and I've never been a big fan of coincidence or blind happenstance....things happen for a reason...just not sure in this case what those reasons are? Interesting to study on though.

 

[Appalachian American]

Wonder if nighttime clarity (moon/star light) combined with rut timing has any impact.

Very interesting that you keep and study such statistics on deer movement/sightings/etc.

Side note… which is better this year? Morning or afternoon sightings? Thanks!

 

[Pilchard]

I find it easier to take a nap mid-morning than on an afternoon sit. If I was a data contributor for the study, you would have to account for the time when I was on-stand with my eyes closed

Sort of joking but my point is that not all hours in the stand are equal when there is a human variable.

 

[BSK]

Side note… which is better this year? Morning or afternoon sightings? Thanks!

This year, morning hunts. Last year, evening hunts.

I have this data from when we first acquired the property (1987), but a major change occurred starting in 2001, when we began placing a large amount of hunting pressure on the property, which has continued to the current year. So the below data is what I call the "Modern Era" data only - from the time hunting pressure increased dramatically (2001 until the present):

 

[Andy S.]

Sort of joking but my point is that not all hours in the stand are equal when there is a human variable.

No doubt.......think about pre smartphone era versus smartphone era. LOTS of deer hunters are severely distracted these days while in the woods.

 

[Andy S.]

So the below data is what I call the "Modern Era" data only - from the time hunting pressure increased dramatically (2001 until the present):

What do you call "increased hunting pressure"? What is total hours hunted during November? All parties?

 

[BSK]

What do you call "increased hunting pressure"? What is total hours hunted during November? All parties?

From 50-100 hours of treestand time in November pre-2001 to suddenly 200-320 hours of treestand time in November 2001 to present.

 

[BSK]

No doubt.......think about pre smartphone era versus smartphone era. LOTS of deer hunters are severely distracted these days while in the woods.

Basically, same hunters over the time period. I can see where changing technology (cell-phones, etc.) could cause sighting rates to decline over time, but that would not account for extreme variability in morning versus evening sighting rates from year to year.