I sure wish the TWRA still conducted the Thermal Imaging Distance Sampling project implemented under Daryl Ratajczak. At least then we would have some empirical data to work from.
After conducting a lot of photo censuses, especially ones on the same property several years in a row, I learned the hard way that what hunters see while hunting and what is really out there can be two VERY different things. Hunter observations of deer can vary wildly from year to year, based on changing food sources and habitat. Yet, invariably, photo censuses show the actual deer population isn't changing that much.
Now that's not to say deer populations haven't changed regionally. They most certainly have. The deer populations peaked in Middle TN around 2006. Then, a disastrous EHD outbreak - followed by continued high doe harvests - knocked the population down considerably and held it down. It has not rebounded to the highs of 2005 and 2006 (which is a good thing; the population at peak was too high for the environment), but it is slowly building back up. However, pockets within that area have been knocked back again by another EHD outbreak in 2019.