With a month or so left and the peak of rut over what do you guys think are the odds of buck that most people would shoot making it thru till next year if he has made it this far. Just an avg. I know many variables such as location, neighbors, etc, but just an avg. my guess would be 65-70% chance he makes it.
Odds of a deer making it through till next year
- Thread starter Mr. Hawk
- Start date
MickThompson
Well-Known Member
A lot depends on the deer- his personality, home range, and whether he hits a hot doe trail in December. I don't play probability here- if it's a buck I want to hunt, I do. Otherwise they get to walk.
Mine has eluded me for 4 years. He is seen at night. He was seen by my buddy 2 weeks ago. I expect him to make it another year.
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megalomaniac
Well-Known Member
All depends on the amount of pressure in the area. Bucks will get VERY vulnerable at start of 2nd rut, then get vulnerable feeding in daylight in January.
BUT, by then, the number of active hunters has drastically declined due to burn out or tag out.
In my experience with years of following bucks on camera, 80% of the bucks alive now will survive the season. Only 70% will actually reach the opening day of 2020, tho (car wrecks, disease, coyotes, etc).
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BUT, by then, the number of active hunters has drastically declined due to burn out or tag out.
In my experience with years of following bucks on camera, 80% of the bucks alive now will survive the season. Only 70% will actually reach the opening day of 2020, tho (car wrecks, disease, coyotes, etc).
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catman529
Well-Known Member
Dang good chance if he's 3.5 or older. Even a younger deer has a decent chance after November, unless you're in an area with a late rut that would keep more hunters in the woods
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DoubleRidge
Well-Known Member
Totally agree with previous comments. From years of running camera's till they shed I'd say a buck alive today has a very good chance of survival. And while there are some diehards that will hunt til last day...some have meat by now, some are duck hunting and some burn out....and based off your question I'm guessing you have a buck you are really hoping he makes it...if so.... good luck!!....hope he makes it!!
THEdonkey0515
Well-Known Member
Where I'm at in east Tennessee I say it's pretty dang high 85%
I would guess it's more likely a deer would get killed by something else besides a legal hunter between now & next season where I'm at.
I would guess it's more likely a deer would get killed by something else besides a legal hunter between now & next season where I'm at.
Very high in my area. Not many people hunting anymore due to low deer numbers and a buck in mountainous terrain without concentrated food sources is a very hard one to get a shot at after the rut. I didn't even see a hunter on the local public land I hunt during the rut, it's just to difficult to see deer anymore.
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elknturkey
Well-Known Member
Prob close to 100% if he makes it through November. Mature mountain bucks are hard to find after the rut and honestly I never have even heard of anyone killing a big one here in December. I've never even had one on cam in that period but we do find big sheds off deer we know so they obviously don't leave but limit movement
At the rate I am going all my deer will make it to next season lol
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TheLBLman
Well-Known Member
The odds of a deer surviving another year DEPENDS
on many factors.
If we just assume "any" deer or "any" buck
it's generally way north of 50% that particular deer will be around next fall,
regardless whether the starting point was September, November or December of 2019.
But the odds change dramatically
when we start talking about very specific deer
and with very specific beginning dates.
IMO, the particular deer LEAST likely to survive until the Fall of the 2020 deer season
are bucks of all ages with above average antlers (for their age).
Simultaneously, the particular bucks with below average antlers (for their age) often have better odds of surviving than even a yearling doe.
2 1/2-yr-old bucks with above average antlers are generally walking around with a death sentence
which will be carried out by the first average hunter to encounter them.
Their failing to encounter a single average hunter sometime during the deer season is unlikely.
It is often over the Christmas holidays for those few which survive November.
Keep in mind 2 1/2-yr-old bucks travel more linear distance during daylight than any other deer.
They take life-threatening risks that 3 1/2 & older bucks generally do not take (at least not with any regularity).
2 1/2's are somewhat like a 16-yr-old boy who just received his driver's license & a new sports car.
Similar can be said for above-average antlered 3 1/2's, but they are much more risk averse,
and much less likely to travel so much linear distance during daylight hours.
3 1/2-yr-old (and older) bucks with average to below average antlers --- if they survive this year's rut, most will still be alive next year when the 2020 rut begins.
The "odds" simply depend on so many factors it's just hard to make a blanket statement.
But any buck aged 2 1/2 and older with above average antlers (for his age) will become more specifically and more heavily hunted than any more "average" buck.
Think about this.
A guy hunts Friday evening, then Saturday morning, but doesn't see anything but a button buck.
Frustrated, he goes home at Noon on Saturday.
His hunting buddy sees a large antlered buck Friday evening, nothing else.
But now excited about the prospects, the buddy stays on stand all day Saturday AND Sunday.
He killed the large-antlered buck Sunday evening.
Main difference?
One guy was NOT hunting, his buddy WAS hunting.
And, ironically, it's likely this large-antlered buck had first gone by (Sunday morning)
the stand the "went home" hunter had vacated!
Often, the "prospects" (of hunter enthusiasm) have as much to do with whether a particular buck survives
as any other factor.
The "prospects" are whether hunters are either too frustrated, and hunt half as much time, half as hard;
or, sometimes the hunters are so excited about the prospects they hunt harder, even extend their hunting days longer, simply because they're more excited about the prospects.
I see this about the "prospects" continuously, where often, what's seen or not seen on the 1st day of a hunter's hunt, that dictates whether he hunts 1 more morning or 2 more days. Never mind that we often go a day or two without seeing a deer, then see a lot of activity the next day or two. Just how it works.
Less enthusiasm, less hunting.
More enthusiasm, more hunting.
Less hunting, less deer killed.
More hunting, more deer killed.
on many factors.
If we just assume "any" deer or "any" buck
it's generally way north of 50% that particular deer will be around next fall,
regardless whether the starting point was September, November or December of 2019.
But the odds change dramatically
when we start talking about very specific deer
and with very specific beginning dates.
IMO, the particular deer LEAST likely to survive until the Fall of the 2020 deer season
are bucks of all ages with above average antlers (for their age).
Simultaneously, the particular bucks with below average antlers (for their age) often have better odds of surviving than even a yearling doe.
2 1/2-yr-old bucks with above average antlers are generally walking around with a death sentence
which will be carried out by the first average hunter to encounter them.
Their failing to encounter a single average hunter sometime during the deer season is unlikely.
It is often over the Christmas holidays for those few which survive November.
Keep in mind 2 1/2-yr-old bucks travel more linear distance during daylight than any other deer.
They take life-threatening risks that 3 1/2 & older bucks generally do not take (at least not with any regularity).
2 1/2's are somewhat like a 16-yr-old boy who just received his driver's license & a new sports car.
Similar can be said for above-average antlered 3 1/2's, but they are much more risk averse,
and much less likely to travel so much linear distance during daylight hours.
3 1/2-yr-old (and older) bucks with average to below average antlers --- if they survive this year's rut, most will still be alive next year when the 2020 rut begins.
The "odds" simply depend on so many factors it's just hard to make a blanket statement.
But any buck aged 2 1/2 and older with above average antlers (for his age) will become more specifically and more heavily hunted than any more "average" buck.
Think about this.
A guy hunts Friday evening, then Saturday morning, but doesn't see anything but a button buck.
Frustrated, he goes home at Noon on Saturday.
His hunting buddy sees a large antlered buck Friday evening, nothing else.
But now excited about the prospects, the buddy stays on stand all day Saturday AND Sunday.
He killed the large-antlered buck Sunday evening.
Main difference?
One guy was NOT hunting, his buddy WAS hunting.
And, ironically, it's likely this large-antlered buck had first gone by (Sunday morning)
the stand the "went home" hunter had vacated!
Often, the "prospects" (of hunter enthusiasm) have as much to do with whether a particular buck survives
as any other factor.
The "prospects" are whether hunters are either too frustrated, and hunt half as much time, half as hard;
or, sometimes the hunters are so excited about the prospects they hunt harder, even extend their hunting days longer, simply because they're more excited about the prospects.
I see this about the "prospects" continuously, where often, what's seen or not seen on the 1st day of a hunter's hunt, that dictates whether he hunts 1 more morning or 2 more days. Never mind that we often go a day or two without seeing a deer, then see a lot of activity the next day or two. Just how it works.
Less enthusiasm, less hunting.
More enthusiasm, more hunting.
Less hunting, less deer killed.
More hunting, more deer killed.
