In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds are

[cecil30-30]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

Tn elk will never come close to doing as well as the ky elk herd. Tn doesn't have the correct habitat.

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[UpperTully]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

Here's Kentucky's odds

In State Odds / Out of State Odds
Bull Firearm 1/134 1/627
Cow Firearm 1/26 1/85
Bull Archery 1/77 1/561
Cow Archery 1/13 1/66
Either-sex – Youth 1/87 1/239

 

[Buzzard Breath]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

I hate to be "that guy", but draw odds don't follow commonly taught mathematical laws. I'm not sure how many tags TN issues anymore, or how many people apply, but for sake of description, we'll say 9,000 people are applying for 14 tags. The first tag has a 1 in 9,000 chance of drawing. Second is 1 in 8,999; third 1 in 8,998, fourth 1 in 8,997; fifth 1 in 8,996; and so forth through 14 tags. So, the actual odds would be something like 1 in 8,993 (average of the denominator). No calculator was used, so the numbers might not be exact, but the other numbers are make believe anyways.

In order for it to be 1 in 650, only around 657 people would have applied.

 

[shirtshirt]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

I hate to be "that guy", but draw odds don't follow commonly taught mathematical laws. I'm not sure how many tags TN issues anymore, or how many people apply, but for sake of description, we'll say 9,000 people are applying for 14 tags. The first tag has a 1 in 9,000 chance of drawing. Second is 1 in 8,999; third 1 in 8,998, fourth 1 in 8,997; fifth 1 in 8,996; and so forth through 14 tags. So, the actual odds would be something like 1 in 8,993 (average of the denominator). No calculator was used, so the numbers might not be exact, but the other numbers are make believe anyways.

In order for it to be 1 in 650, only around 657 people would have applied.

I might be wrong, but I think you're confusing odds with probability.

 

[Buzzard Breath]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

I hate to be "that guy", but draw odds don't follow commonly taught mathematical laws. I'm not sure how many tags TN issues anymore, or how many people apply, but for sake of description, we'll say 9,000 people are applying for 14 tags. The first tag has a 1 in 9,000 chance of drawing. Second is 1 in 8,999; third 1 in 8,998, fourth 1 in 8,997; fifth 1 in 8,996; and so forth through 14 tags. So, the actual odds would be something like 1 in 8,993 (average of the denominator). No calculator was used, so the numbers might not be exact, but the other numbers are make believe anyways.

In order for it to be 1 in 650, only around 657 people would have applied.

I might be wrong, but I think you're confusing odds with probability.

You're right. Except, I don't think I even figured out the probability correctly. Basically, I just butchered math.

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[Buzzard Breath]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

This would have been the correct answer.

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[lightsareout]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

if someone were to draw the tag is this hunting all on public land?

 

[shirtshirt]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

This would have been the correct answer.

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Hahahahaha! Well played!

 

[Buzzard Breath]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

Hey, I don't want to come across as condescending but I think you are confused as to how probability is calculated. While its true that your odds of drawing would drop with each unsuccessful draw, this is not how overall probability is calculated. What you are describing is the probability of drawing 1 specific tag, on one specific attempt. But the overall odds are calculated by taking the TOTAL pool of possibilities divided by the number of attempts.

Yea, I was having a brain fart kind of night last night.

15 will have been drawn (lets ignore that one may be auctioned).

So I was right about the 14?

 

[MickThompson]

Re: In case you wanted to know what the TN Elk drawing odds

Let me fuzzy your math even further- the archery and gun hunts are separate draws, so they will have different odds to draw. I only put in for the gun hunts, and figure that most everyone put in for those 7 tags, and some subset of that applied for the archery tags.

With 9,000 applicants, the odds of pulling 1 of 7 rifle tag is 1:1,285.

Let say 3,000 apply for the archery tag. You odds of drawing one of 7 tags is 1:428.


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