I currently have a fair idea how many long-bearded Toms are on a particular 3,000-plus acre private tract of good contiguous turkey habitat in Stewart County. Week before the season opened, I estimated the density at 10 to 20 Toms (2 yrs or older), which would have been 1 Tom per every 150 to 300 acres. But they were very "bunched" and not uniformly distributed across this acreage.
Just to be clear, am referring to 1 yr old males as Jakes; 2 yrs or older as Toms.
Varying from year to year depending on the prior year's nesting success & survival,
the number of Jakes can be either more or less the number of Toms.
Two weeks into the TN statewide season, I'm now more accurately estimating the density at 6 to 12 Toms, or 1 Tom per every 250 to 500 acres. They are now less "bunched" and more uniformly distributed across this acreage.
But when the season ends, I expect there to be only 3 to 6 survivors on this 3,000 plus acres. The ones of those which ultimately survive until the next spring + the surviving Jakes, will become the expected 6 to 12 Toms available come Spring 2023.
Keep in mind an estimate is just that, and it is fluid, and changing,
seasonally and annually.
But for the past many years, it's been trending downward in areas that a decade and farther back had a much greater density than now. What's most ironic is the habitat in many these areas appears to be more conducive to better nesting success now than then. Same can be said for the quail, which have nearly become extinct, despite habitat improvements.
The bottom line is that many areas cannot sustain an ongoing turkey harvest
of even 1 Tom per hunter annually. Doesn't matter if we're talking 1 hunter on 300 acres or 30 hunters on 3,000 acres. The resource is limited.