Another weird trend in data

[BSK]

I found a sudden and perplexing change in my trial-cam data over the years. Going back as far as I have the data entered (2011 as of this posting), the percent of November older buck images captured in daylight ran a consistent 17-19% year after year. Then suddenly, starting in 2017, the percentage jumped up into the low to mid 30% range and has stayed that way. I assumed this must have been a sudden change in camera placement, but going back and looking at the camera locations, I'm still using the exact same scrapes and concentration points today as I was in 2011. I looked at a possibility of camera manufacturer and design differences, and that's not it either. No sudden change in camera type starting in 2017. No major change in habitat starting in 2017. I haven't figured this one out yet, but I'm going to have to look into changes in our hunting style and pressure. But a sudden and consistent change in daylight older buck activity (increasing around 15%) is pretty significant.

 

[Ski]

That's dang near double! Could it be that your hunting habits enhanced buck age structure?

 

[CrossVolle]

I guess nonspecific to your farm, but has there been any major habitat changes within a couple miles? logging? Crop fields left to fallow? Has the pressure on surrounding properties increased?


Seems it could be a plethora of things. But interested in what you find.

 

[BSK]

That's dang near double! Could it be that your hunting habits enhanced buck age structure?

Buck age structure is virtually unchanged since 2004.

 

[BSK]

I guess nonspecific to your farm, but has there been any major habitat changes within a couple miles? logging? Crop fields left to fallow? Has the pressure on surrounding properties increased?


Seems it could be a plethora of things. But interested in what you find.

This is going to take some serious detective work.

 

[TheLBLman]

Has the pressure on surrounding properties increased?

I'll bet you a dollar against a donut, the surrounding property pressure has dropped significantly.

My theory, this is the #1 reason for the increased sightings.

And it's not just the hunting pressure decreasing as we normally think, but also the "type" hunting pressure. As more & more hunters are voluntarily passing yearling & 2 1/2-yr-old bucks, I believe this is "conditioning" the 3 1/2 & older bucks to be LESS hunter wise, and move around more during daylight.

Conversely, with a heavy doe harvest, we see older doe going almost totally nocturnal.

 

[CrossVolle]

I'll bet you a dollar against a donut, the surrounding property pressure has dropped significantly.

My theory, this is the #1 reason for the increased sightings.

And it's not just the hunting pressure decreasing as we normally think, but also the "type" hunting pressure. As more & more hunters are voluntarily passing yearling & 2 1/2-yr-old bucks, I believe this is "conditioning" the 3 1/2 & older bucks to be LESS hunter wise, and move around more during daylight.

Conversely, with a heavy doe harvest, we see older doe going almost totally nocturnal.

Totally plausible.

 

[BSK]

I'll bet you a dollar against a donut, the surrounding property pressure has dropped significantly.

My theory, this is the #1 reason for the increased sightings.

And it's not just the hunting pressure decreasing as we normally think, but also the "type" hunting pressure. As more & more hunters are voluntarily passing yearling & 2 1/2-yr-old bucks, I believe this is "conditioning" the 3 1/2 & older bucks to be LESS hunter wise, and move around more during daylight.

Conversely, with a heavy doe harvest, we see older doe going almost totally nocturnal.

You may very well be right TheLBLman. Surrounding pressure has been dropping for some time. And I don't know anyone in the area shooting yearling bucks (except for my one baiting neighbor. He'll shoot anything with it's nose in the corn pile).

 

[BSK]

I'll bet our hunting style has changed as well. We've been adding a lot of ladder stands to the property. We're also not placing as many hours of hunting pressure on the property as we used to. Less time in the stand, spread over a much wider arrangement of stands, may be playing a role.

 

[LenS]

Would switching to video instead of still photos have allowed you to capture bucks you otherwise would've missed?

 

[fairchaser]

I would think that allowing the age structure to increase has some impact as well. More older bucks equals more competition and more searching in the daylight. It's possible that you reached a tipping point in your age structure.

 

[TheLBLman]

Would switching to video instead of still photos have allowed you to capture bucks you otherwise would've missed?

Would think this is at least a small factor.
Also, today's cams have a little better triggering range than they did a few years ago.

 

[BSK]

Would switching to video instead of still photos have allowed you to capture bucks you otherwise would've missed?

I think a few (bucks way off in the background that wouldn't be noticed in a still image but can be seen moving in a video). But I only switched to video in 2020.

 

[BSK]

I would think that allowing the age structure to increase has some impact as well. More older bucks equals more competition and more searching in the daylight. It's possible that you reached a tipping point in your age structure.

Nope. No change in age structure since 2004. A real flatline.

 

[TheLBLman]

Nope. No change in age structure since 2004. A real flatline.

But maybe hunters are killing more older bucks,
keeping that age structure similar to a real flatline?
More 3 1/2's getting a pass, more 4 1/2's getting killed?

 

[JN]

What area of the state is the data coming from?

 

[fairchaser]

Nope. No change in age structure since 2004. A real flatline.

Curious how you know? Observations?

 

[Madbowh]

I think you'll have a weird line of events that added up to this, not 1 specific thing that changed. Maybe a combination of things that did it. You'll figure it out one day and say how did I not realize that,

 

[BSK]

What area of the state is the data coming from?

Western Middle TN.

 

[Remington700]

Has the browse line changed much or the thickness of the property? I ask because as my property opens up and pressure around it has dropped. I am actually seeing less bucks than I use to. I am actually thinking about select cutting to make it grow back thicker and maybe bring the deer back into it more. My daughter, who also hunts, is against it because now that it is opening up we are getting more turkey. It's kind of a double edged sword.