As I stated previously, we grow plenty of 4 1/2+ year old bucks (59 in the last 21 years). But we sure don't kill them (we've killed 11 in the last 21 years). But then, we're not mature buck hunters. Just recreational hunters. I was a mature buck hunter for a while, and was somewhat successful, but I didn't enjoy that kind of hunting.
I get it, to each their own. You have some nice genetics, and obviously have enough ground to let some grow if that was your thing.
I hope I get the chance to see him next year. If he is anything like "average," I would expect him to add about 15-20 inches. Below is an example. First video, rare 2 1/2 year-old 10-pointer last year. I had him at somewhere around 115-120. Second video, same buck this year in same location. As a 3 1/2, he grossed 131.
If being on the conservative side, and he makes his biggest jump between 3.5 and 4.5, adds 35 inches in the next 2 years, he could be pushing 160 at 4.5. Whatever happens with him good luck.
Just looking at averages, and not individual deer, our average 2 1/2 is 82.5. Our average 4 1/2 is 120. That's a 45% increase (again, on average). But that's because our average 2 1/2 is a small 8-point. I'm not sure a 2 1/2 buck like this 11-point is going increase as much.
What's amusing is the difference between what exists in the woods and what hunters kill. Hunters target the largest antlered bucks of each age-class. So when hunters tell me what their "average" antler score for a certain age-class is, they are telling me the average harvested buck antler score, not the average of what is on the property. I've posted many times the average scores per age-class (estimated from trail-camera pictures) for my property. Yet TN hunters will say my numbers are way low compared to where they hunt. Maybe. But I do find it interesting that my averages per age-class are within 2 inches for every age-class of what the famous King Ranch in TX grows. Not the average of what hunters kill on the King Ranch (those are super high because hunters only kill the very best of each age-class), but what the ground actually produces. I also have the data for the Faith Ranch in TX, and their numbers are similar to my place and the King Ranch.
My trail cam pics for 2.5 year old are nowhere near what you post here. One of the best 2.5 year old 8's i have ever gotten pics of would be this one. This is the high end, most are nowhere near this, likely 15-20 inches smaller. I would guess our 2.5 year old here for the most part are lucky to get in the mid 90's inch range.
He almost certainly won't make his biggest jump between 3.5 and 4.5.
Ok, you know what I meant. Excluding from fawns to yearlings, the biggest jump in adult bucks according to many "experts" is between 3.5 and 4.5 he's old. That is agreed upon by several "experts".
I don't know who these experts are, but the science doesn't agree with them. Check out MSU labs data for example. Average buck grows 12" of antlers from 3.5 to 4.5. Starting at 4.5 is really when they start putting on a lot of antler mass because skeletal growth is finished, but that doesn't add a ton of inches of antler.
Starting at age 4, in the spring is when they start growing, they don't start the season growing antlers at age 4.5. At 4.5 would be about when they stop growing antlers for that season. Agree that for the most part their skeletal system is done growing by 4 and more growth goes to their antlers. Adult deer antlers typically show more growth between 3.5 and 4.5. I have read that from multiple sources over the years, and the reasoning is exactly what you said, you just have the aging off by a half year
Browning Spec Ops Elite HP4s and HP5s. Love them! Although, to be honest, I think their video is better than their still images. But for my own property, all I use now is video. Very slow analysis for video, but I love all that I can learn from video.
