Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draws

[Southern Sportsman]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

This is not directed at any one person, but I feel like those complaining about the new draw plan are just looking for something to complain about. I'm fairly certain your mathematical odds of drawing any particular blind will not change. If there are 1000 people at the drawing, your odds are still 1/1000 of getting the first blind. For group odds, a bigger group will still have better odds just like before. The drawing will take longer, but that's about it. This won't eliminate buying/selling blinds, but it will help.

There will still be people who pay money and the group actually drawn will give the buyer all their cards, but then the buyer runs the risk of getting beat out by a "we were here first" blind hopper. So it disincentives that type of transaction. It will definitely cut down on people offering and paying big money to sign on with the early drawn person and thus control the blind as a legit card holder. If your name is still in the hat you're not going to pay someone to sign on, thus removing your name from the hat, not knowing which blind you will end up with.

I'm not overly caught up on the morality of "buying" a draw blind, but I think it's better that they are not bought and sold for a number of reasons. There is probably no "perfect" solution, but this is a step in the right direction.

 

[RUGER]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

This is not directed at any one person, but I feel like those complaining about the new draw plan are just looking for something to complain about. I'm fairly certain your mathematical odds of drawing any particular blind will not change. If there are 1000 people at the drawing, your odds are still 1/1000 of getting the first blind. .

I am definitely not a math guy but I don't think the odds are the same.
Simply because when you get drawn first, this year it means nothing.
Yeah it will be great for the guy that gets drawn last the first time but, well I just don't like it.
Complicates things and does absolutely nothing to keep people from buying or selling blinds.

Oh well, I know I will be there and trying to get a top pick that's for sure.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

This is not directed at any one person, but I feel like those complaining about the new draw plan are just looking for something to complain about. I'm fairly certain your mathematical odds of drawing any particular blind will not change. If there are 1000 people at the drawing, your odds are still 1/1000 of getting the first blind. .

I am definitely not a math guy but I don't think the odds are the same.
Simply because when you get drawn first, this year it means nothing.
Yeah it will be great for the guy that gets drawn last the first time but, well I just don't like it.
Complicates things and does absolutely nothing to keep people from buying or selling blinds.

Oh well, I know I will be there and trying to get a top pick that's for sure.

The odds are definitely the same. You don't have to be "lucky enough to get drawn twice." If you get drawn in the first round, you are guaranteed to get drawn in the second round, it's just a matter of when. So getting drawn first in the first round does not "mean nothing." It means you get put into a second barrel where your odds of getting drawn first is exponentially greater.

Use Gooch as an example because that's where I usually go and the math is a little easier. I think there are 35 blinds total.

Lets say 1000 people go to the drawing. Last year, any person's odds of getting the top pick = their odds being drawn first in the single draw. 1 in 1000 (.001 or .1%) - easy enough.

This year the odds of getting the top pick = (odds of being drawn at any point during the first round (35 out of 1000)) x (the odds of being drawn first in the second round (1 out of 35)).

Odds of being picked during the first round: - 35/1000 = .035 (3.5%)
Odds of being picked FIRST during the second round: - 1/35 = .02857143 (~ 2.9%)
Odds of getting the "top blind": - .035 x .02857143 = .001 or .1% (same as last year)


Think about it this way: If 1000 people show up, and one person out of those 1000 is going to get the top blind, the odds of being top pick are 1 in 1000. It doesn't matter if they go through one round, two rounds, or 500 rounds with the final selection decided by coin flip.

No question that the person who gets drawn first in the first round is going to gripe because "man if they hadn't changed this I would gotten the best blind." But that gripe is only because it "feels" different than it did in the past. The actual odds of getting the top blind have not changed.

 

[RUGER]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

I just hope a lot of people decide not to come lol
I always go to gooch too. Well except for one year we went to west sandy.
Won't be making that mistake again lol

Have you ever seen or heard of anyone buying or selling a blind at gooch ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TNGunsmoke]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

The odds of being drawn 1st in both drawings, or even top 5 in both are where the problem comes in under the new process. I don't care where I get drawn in the first draw(if we get drawn at all). That second draw will be quicker and the first will take longer by a bit. I suspect that there will still be folks wanting to sign on for the purpose of buying a blind, but the price will be determined by which blind they wind up with. I also think that the bottom 10 blinds or so will be left vacant and eventually removed from the draw because "no one wants those spots anyway" and will be designated as boat blind first come first served spots if anyone decides to give em a shot on a given day. But they will have to decoy/hunt/pickup every time.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

The odds of being drawn 1st in both drawings, or even top 5 in both are where the problem comes in under the new process.

Being drawn first in the first round - or in any particular spot - is exactly the same as being drawn last in the first round. All of those names just go into a second barrel. So I'm not sure where the problem comes in.

I repeat, your odds of getting any particular blind are still exactly the same.

 

[drake799]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

It's absolutely luck getting picked Whether it's the first draw or the second. Not everyone is wanting to sell a blind and that's what the problem is. With new system a honest group could get pulled first and still not get a good blind. Like in previous draws and that SUCKS!!! So you do have to get "lucky"twice. It sure the heck isn't skill getting picked early if all blinds were created equal then this wouldn't be a issue. But there is a big difference between a top 5 or so Pick compared to a bottom 5 pick. Yeah maybe it will deter a few groups from buying blinds MAYBE. But this will impact a lot higher percentage of honest people. Just not a well thought plan

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

But this will impact a lot higher percentage of honest people. Just not a well thought plan

How will this adversely affect anyone? It's a slightly different process, but the odds of drawing are exactly the same.

 

[drake799]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

It's affecting people because it's changing the system that a lot of people have only ever known. You get a good pick you get a good blind. Not you get a good pick. You maybe get the last blind of the draw lol. I can see what your saying on the odds. But I don't look at it like that. I'd rather it be a one shot deal and take myself to the house after that I'd die a little on the inside to get a top pull first round and then get a crap blind second. I'm not looking for a place to hang my hat for the year. Just to go waste my time and money on a garhole. Lol

 

[drake799]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

What is the percentage of people at the draw buying blinds. Small. Now what is the percentage of people at the draw wanting a blind to hunt and not selling High. So we're changing the system in a effort to stop a very small percentage of people Just isn't right to me And at the end of the day the people that buy blinds will still buy them lol. Because they're wanting to hunt and will just accept the situation and will do what it takes to secure the blind they've bought every day May mean someone is sitting in it a 4am everyday But if that's what it takes that what they'll do.

 

[RUGER]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

I guess my biggest issue with this is I don't give a crap what people do with their blinds.
Draw it and sell it or draw it and hunt it, not my circus, not my monkey's.

It will stop what does get on my nerves though that's for sure.
Dude running around with his little manwoman in tow with a clipboard with 150-175 names on it that he fed breakfast and will sign on with them if they get a top draw.
THAT is a good thing imho.

Hmmm, now that I think about it, I kinda like this new way. :rotf: :rotf:

 

[BULL MOOSE]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

The first three drawn are going to gripe because they will not have a brand new friend putting $10,000 cash in their pocket and holding their hand as they walk Up to claim it. It is the craziest illegal activity that I ever witnessed. People will bash a poacher, but those guys are poaching just the same.

 

[Levee Jumper]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

I love the new rules. Math is math and you cant really argue the numbers associated with getting a particular blind because they are the same. The only variable that may change the odds is the number of sign ons affecting the quantity of people remaining in the draw (which is minuscule). I actually feel like the number of sign ons will decrease with the new rules which will make it ever so slightly harder to get a blind.

The way I see it, parties are set prior to money changing hands. I assume someone could offer you a grand or two to get their name in the second draw, but that would be a tough pill to swallow for the person paying for a card to a likely gar hole.

The blind may very well sell after the second draw, but 10 grand split say 8 ways is tougher to do, and if the original owner does it anyway there are still 7 cards that have the right to the blind regardless of money changing hands. I actually hope someone sells a blind out from under their buddies and one of the buddies is so butt hurt about it that he decides he is going to keep his card (or request another one from the TWRA) and hunt it anyway. This guy waits until the blind is built and the last piece of brush is going on and he shows up with the GW and ask "What the hell is going on guys I think y'all have the wrong hole".

 

[Levee Jumper]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

We may see some classic NBA Free agency type protected picks, or pick swaps this year. "I'll sign on and if its in the top 3 ill give you $12,000, between 4 and 8 ill give you $8,000, but if its lower that 8 I'm out."

People are still going to cheat the system "Poach" but it will be a little more interesting for sure.

 

[big 8s in Weakley county]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

What I hate is the blinds that will not have anything done to them. There are several people that just want a spot they don't care if it's top pick or bottom but they will never have the chance due to the new system. If there is 5 blinds that get left no one wants I think they should go back and draw them out of the 1st barrel to see if anyone will take them.

 

[TimberMan]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

I like the idea of all spots being drawn. I'm alright with anyone not willing to take a blind in the second drawing be ineligible for next years drawing. That being said, drawing out of the first barrel is fine as well. This system takes away from the people who would stay to the last pick, still hoping to get picked.

 

[CBU93]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

In my experience, as limited as it is..I think those blinds that folks don't want should be left vacant. IMO those blinds tend to add additional pressure and decrease the overall quality of the experience for others on th WMA. When you can sit in a blind in a flooded timber bottom and see multiple other occupied blinds, that is overcrowded.

I understand the approach that the TWRA wants increased opportunities for hunters, but I think quality hunts of all kinds similar to the PI deer hunts is important as well. Time will tell.

 

[TimberMan]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

Blinds being close isn't the biggest issue on WMAs IMO. It is the fact a majority are shooting at birds at 80 yards high, highballing while ducks are trying to sit in another blinds decoys, or the single shots flaring birds when it is not that blinds day to be the x. Eliminating that would improve quality.

 

[RUGER]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

Blinds being close isn't the biggest issue on WMAs IMO. It is the fact a majority are shooting at birds at 80 yards high, highballing while ducks are trying to sit in another blinds decoys, or the single shots flaring birds when it is not that blinds day to be the x. Eliminating that would improve quality.

Ain't that the freaking truth.

 

[TNGunsmoke]

Re: Proposed changes to this years hand held duck blind draw

Blinds being close isn't the biggest issue on WMAs IMO. It is the fact a majority are shooting at birds at 80 yards high, highballing while ducks are trying to sit in another blinds decoys, or the single shots flaring birds when it is not that blinds day to be the x. Eliminating that would improve quality.

80 yards high would be a lot closer than some shots I have seen taken. More like 125-130. Camden Bottoms of course. Have seen it almost come to blows or worse at the landing over it a few times.