What is the probability of getting your buck?

[fairchaser]

I asked AI what the probability of killing a target buck if you hunted every day for 3 hours at random times for a week. The assumption was that buck would travel through your kill zone once a week in daylight.

The odds for seeing him that week was 12.5%. It would take 8 weeks on average to see him.

Those aren't great odds and probably surprising to most of us. Most don't hunt that many days in a row either.

If you hunted all day, every day, you would see him once. I remember doing that in Alberta for 6 days and it was tortuous but got the job done.

The other challenge is hunting the same stand every day which would burn it out and having to change due to the wind.

The other question is how do you improve your odds of right place, right time?

 

[deerhunter10]

Ideally you have more then one spot that you think you could kill him. I rarely sit all day or hunt middle of the day. But the most sits I've had on a deer is 31. That was bouncing between 3 stands and actually a road.

Imo you try to strike when all the things are in your favor. When the timing is right you need to hunt. But you have to be as smart as possible. Access in and out is crazy important when hunting a spot multiple times.

 

[fairchaser]

I've got one target buck that has gone by the camera twice in daylight, mid day when its raining. That's gonna be tough to hunt but I may try it. It likely won't work the first time and I'll probably cave in. But it's interesting to think if making changes like this could dramatically improve our chances.

 

[chris1976]

I asked AI what the probability of killing a target buck if you hunted every day for 3 hours at random times for a week. The assumption was that buck would travel through your kill zone once a week in daylight.

The odds for seeing him that week was 12.5%. It would take 8 weeks on average to see him.

Those aren't great odds and probably surprising to most of us. Most don't hunt that many days in a row either.

If you hunted all day, every day, you would see him once. I remember doing that in Alberta for 6 days and it was tortuous but got the job done.

The other challenge is hunting the same stand every day which would burn it out and having to change due to the wind.

The other question is how do you improve your odds of right place, right time?

I hunt all day every day until I kill the one I'm after. Last year it was 9 days and this year he came through on the 3rd day. What I lack in skill I make up for with determination and patience.

 

[fairchaser]

I hunt all day every day until I kill the one I'm after. Last year it was 9 days and this year he came through on the 3rd day. What I lack in skill I make up for with determination and patience.

That's amazing man. Please share some of your secrets for hunting endurance. I can barely make 4 hours without seeing deer. I'm like a zombie up there.

 

[chris1976]

No secrets, I'm just comfortable and content alone for long periods of time. Lots of snacks, I like to eat a little something every hour or 2. The anticipation knowing he will eventually show up is all the motivation I need.

 

[PickettSFHunter]

All about being on the right terrain feature where I am. If your on the right terrain feature and it's anywhere near the rut, you will kill what your after if it's around much at all. Biggest thing here is killing one before someone else does, they just don't make it long if they are a good one .

 

[Bone Collector]

I asked AI what the probability of killing a target buck if you hunted every day for 3 hours at random times for a week. The assumption was that buck would travel through your kill zone once a week in daylight.

The odds for seeing him that week was 12.5%. It would take 8 weeks on average to see him.

Those aren't great odds and probably surprising to most of us. Most don't hunt that many days in a row either.

If you hunted all day, every day, you would see him once. I remember doing that in Alberta for 6 days and it was tortuous but got the job done.

The other challenge is hunting the same stand every day which would burn it out and having to change due to the wind.

The other question is how do you improve your odds of right place, right time?

I have read and heard a lot of commentary on the fact that if a buck does not bed on the property that you were hunting or bed very close to the property you're hunting, your odds of seeing him in the daylight were somewhere between 10 and 15%. However, if you're hunting a property where the buck does bed or if he beds very close to the property you're hunting, your odds of seeing him at east once during daylight would be around 70 to 80%.

What you're describing would be a scenario where a buck does not bed on the property or close to it. Then you were just basically hoping that he's going to pass through while you're in the stand. This is basically what I have to go through every year on my property and with work family and everything else it's next to impossible outside of just being in the right place at the right time to see a target buck.

 

[megalomaniac]

I dunno, we or the neighbors kill 90% of the mature bucks we are targeting who are using the farms thru the season. I cant translate that into how many hours on the stand per mature buck, but its quite low during ML, and quite high after rifle opens.

But we dont hunt like normal people do, so our mature bucks dont behave like normal mature bucks do.

 

[Ski]

It's hard to kill a buck that isn't present to be killed, and one cam sighting per week is not what I'd consider present. No way I'd bugger up a good spot trying to kill a buck that only shows once per week at random. That by itself would not qualify as a target for me.

 

[backyardtndeer]

Depends entirely on that buck and that deer's regularity. None are the same, especially when it comes to mature deer.

I have gotten kind of lucky on the last two mature target bucks that I killed, just in the right stand at the right time. I had a nice 10 that disappeared from our property on October 22nd, gave up on him as he probably got killed nearby. I did have legal light pictures of him on our property that last morning, so figured he was bedding nearby.

Anyway I had a second deer I said I would kill if I got the chance. I had him in easy crossbow range, at 22 yards, on my very first sit of this season. I could not get a shot on him though, back to my right and the way the stand is there is an upright bar that was right in the way. I probably could have adjusted and forced the shot, but thought I may very well just wait for the juvenile hunt and maybe my son could get a second chance on the deer, he missed him last year. I had a long history with the deer from the prior season and passed him too many times too count.

My wife hunted pretty hard the first full week of muzzleloader, she took vacation that week and she had hopes of killing the same deer. I hunted just a couple times, letting her have the opportunities, I really wanted to see someone else get him. The second week of muzzleloader on Monday, it was a pretty good temp drop and i was videoing a decent 8 with a doe when he came out from the same spot that I watched him walk away from on that archery sit.

I didn't put in near the time this year that my wife did, but I couldn't pass on him this year.

So back to the original question, we have several small farms around us, and my target deer may get killed before I ever really get going. My target may change if the deer I was after goes awol or if a new one of interest shows up. I may sit the entire season and never see a deer I had targeted early on, only for him to show back up after season is over. Just too many variables, but in general I would say with the small parcel that we have my chances are relatively low.

 

[lol]

I hunt all day every day until I kill the one I'm after. Last year it was 9 days and this year he came through on the 3rd day. What I lack in skill I make up for with determination and patience.

The Ed Bloom of deer hunting.

https://clip.cafe/big-fish-2003/and-i-may-not-have-much/

 

[chris1976]

It's hard to kill a buck that isn't present to be killed, and one cam sighting per week is not what I'd consider present. No way I'd bugger up a good spot trying to kill a buck that only shows once per week at random. That by itself would not qualify as a target for me.

What if the only buck you wanted to take only traversed your property once every 6-7 days? And that property was the only place you had to hunt. Would you just quit hunting it?

 

[Mr.Bro]

No secrets, I'm just comfortable and content alone for long periods of time. Lots of snacks, I like to eat a little something every hour or 2. The anticipation knowing he will eventually show up is all the motivation I need.

Ground blind, climber, ladder stand, or shooting house?

 

[chris1976]

Ground blind, climber, ladder stand, or shooting house?

All of these except the ground blind.

 

[deerhunter10]

What if the only buck you wanted to take only traversed your property once every 6-7 days? And that property was the only place you had to hunt. Would you just quit hunting it?

I personally wouldn't. But I would try to make it better habitat wise. I also would be finding other places to hunt if I couldn't do anything to make it better. All of those things are easier said then done. But those would be my steps. But killing a deer that's randomly showing up here and there. That's tough. Very tough. Good for anyone that's killing those types of deer especially consistently. That's takes some serious determination.

 

[Ski]

What if the only buck you wanted to take only traversed your property once every 6-7 days? And that property was the only place you had to hunt. Would you just quit hunting it?

Yes. I would quit hunting it until conditions were more favorable, or else I'd accept that my odds are near zero and know that by continuing to hunt I am quite possibly ruining my chances going forward. I learned this from experience.

To avoid that scenario I hunt a lot on public and permission pieces. Doing so not only avoids putting all my eggs in one basket, but also keeps pressure low on my own place. And when it comes to older bucks, managing pressure is paramount.

 

[DoubleRidge]

I've been successful multiple times hunting known, historical travel corridors. We do run cameras on the farm and have an idea which bucks we are interested in based on age. Then there are bucks that just show up. We have shooting houses, ladder stands and occasionally use a climber...but majority of time are in the shooting houses. And we are not walking around pre-season scouting...only running cameras. Waiting until the time is right to hunt. Normally during two weeks of muzzloader and first week of rifle we use as many vacation days as possible. Go in early well before daylight and walk out under the cover of darkness....take plenty of snacks and water. I've even taken a book for slow periods before. Also text buddys who I know are hunting...anything to pass time, sneek a 30 minute nap on occasion. Containing scent in the shooting house helps and while I have sat all day in one ladder stand we have (nice seat), the all day sit in my climber is a thing of the past...it can be a bit of a grind at times...but when it all comes together its very rewarding.

 

[BSK]

This year, hunted the buck I was after 12 times, from 10 different ladder stands. He was using just one corner of our place (about 150 acres) so I was able to focus my efforts to that part of the property. Killed him on the 12th hunt.

Morning hunts, 4 hours. Evening hunts, 3 hours.

 

[chris1976]

Yes. I would quit hunting it until conditions were more favorable, or else I'd accept that my odds are near zero and know that by continuing to hunt I am quite possibly ruining my chances going forward. I learned this from experience.

To avoid that scenario I hunt a lot on public and permission pieces. Doing so not only avoids putting all my eggs in one basket, but also keeps pressure low on my own place. And when it comes to older bucks, managing pressure is paramount.

I guess all properties are different. I've killed at least one mature buck every year for the last 10 years on my farm utilizing this tactic of waiting them out. If he is only making it through your property weekly you better be there when he comes through.

 

[Ski]

I guess all properties are different. I've killed at least one mature buck every year for the last 10 years on my farm utilizing this tactic of waiting them out. If he is only making it through your property weekly you better be there when he comes through.

I wouldn't disagree with any of that. Not only is every property different, every buck and every hunter is different. If something is working for you then keep on it.

 

[BigAl]

This year I had on camera what could be deemed as 3 target bucks for me, but those were even iffy/borderline. So far I've seen those bucks and passed on them. Probably saw 10-15 other bucks as good as those I had on camera, with a few being better than the ones I had got on camera. Passed those as well but might be regretting one of them. But my point being I don't really have a target buck as it looks like most likely I haven't seen or got my target buck on camera yet.

 

[hbg1]

This year I had on camera what could be deemed as 3 target bucks for me, but those were even iffy/borderline. So far I've seen those bucks and passed on them. Probably saw 10-15 other bucks as good as those I had on camera, with a few being better than the ones I had got on camera. Passed those as well but might be regretting one of them. But my point being I don't really have a target buck as it looks like most likely I haven't seen or got my target buck on camera yet.

Me either

 

[backyardtndeer]

This year I had on camera what could be deemed as 3 target bucks for me, but those were even iffy/borderline. So far I've seen those bucks and passed on them. Probably saw 10-15 other bucks as good as those I had on camera, with a few being better than the ones I had got on camera. Passed those as well but might be regretting one of them. But my point being I don't really have a target buck as it looks like most likely I haven't seen or got my target buck on camera yet.

I have had years like that. Then one I hadn't gotten a single pic of might come along and in the heat off the moment trip my trigger.

 

[ZachMarkus]

I guess all properties are different. I've killed at least one mature buck every year for the last 10 years on my farm utilizing this tactic of waiting them out. If he is only making it through your property weekly you better be there when he comes through.

I use a similar approach on one property I hunt. The deer in that area are very nomadic and cover a very large area, especially bucks this time of year. I hunt the same funnel for multiple days in a row and I hope I'm there when he comes back through. A lot of times I'll see bucks I've never had pics of or seen before and never see them again. I know of one particular buck that is currently making about a 2.5 mile loop, after talking to neighbors and sharing pics and info. I had him about a week ago, it's about time for him to come back through.

 

[chris1976]

I use a similar approach on one property I hunt. The deer in that area are very nomadic and cover a very large area, especially bucks this time of year. I hunt the same funnel for multiple days in a row and I hope I'm there when he comes back through. A lot of times I'll see bucks I've never had pics of or seen before and never see them again. I know of one particular buck that is currently making about a 2.5 mile loop, after talking to neighbors and sharing pics and info. I had him about a week ago, it's about time for him to come back through.

Exactly my place. If I only hunted it when conditions were ideal I would rarely kill mature deer. Sitting many days waiting is not for the weak.

 

[Winchester]

Thats a very broad question based on the fact of where your hunting can vary greatly. Those hunting private farms will approach it much different than those hunting big woods public land deer. Hunting tactics to be successful will vary greatly based on what type of property you are hunting. Are you hunting any mature buck with a certain size rack, or are you targeting a specific buck only? This is a very deep subject, yet very simple at the same time. Most important things are, stand location and time spent on stand. Knowing what wind/thermals do at a specific stand site. Dark to dark sits any time the conditions allow it.

 

[Tn_Va_Hunter]

This was the first year of me killing a target buck that I had on cam.

We had 2. The one I killed was daily. So I know he was bedding near by. The other was about every 3 or 4 days. And the neighbor got him. But I killed my buck on opening day. Right at dark. Didn't score much. Mid 120's. But was mature and the biggest body buck I have taken.
My boy killed a target buck on youth day 4 years ago also his biggest and the biggest to come off our little 30 acres. 151 inch