TN Elk Draw Open

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Thanks for posting this, forgot the turkey quota as life has been busy this year. 🙄 I've put in for Elk since it started and no luck but my cousin and a coworker both scored several years ago on this hunt, one gun and one archery.
 
No reason to have these short time periods to enter the drawing....people forget and agency just loses money....My .02.

KY has been open for months. I probably put in when bought my license and did quota draws last fall, but I cant remember. :)

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No reason to have these short time periods to enter the drawing....people forget and agency just loses money....My .02.

KY has been open for months. I probably put in when bought my license and did quota draws last fall, but I cant remember. :)

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There IS a reason. People actually requested this due to knowing that this would likely be a OIL draw for anyone fortunate to draw it. If I were to draw it I would want to know before I put in for draws and burning my points for places out west that are difficult to draw, but not as difficult as TN's.

Maybe they could start it earlier, but I appreciate them ending it when they do
 
There IS a reason. People actually requested this due to knowing that this would likely be a OIL draw for anyone fortunate to draw it. If I were to draw it I would want to know before I put in for draws and burning my points for places out west that are difficult to draw, but not as difficult as TN's.

Maybe they could start it earlier, but I appreciate them ending it when they do
The application period for the 2025 elk quota hunts is Feb 5 – 26, 2025.

Understood....but the time to enter is less than a month. It is like they just want people to miss applying and generate less revenue. That increases my odds, but not a great business decision imo.
 
The application period for the 2025 elk quota hunts is Feb 5 – 26, 2025.

Understood....but the time to enter is less than a month. It is like they just want people to miss applying and generate less revenue. That increases my odds, but not a great business decision imo.
I get it. Maybe they should open it earlier, but I also agree that it should theoretically help our odds… but I don't really know since I can't seem to find the application numbers since 2020. Numbers up to 2020 are posted on their website, but a lot of things have changed since then. Maybe they are posted somewhere else, but who knows since I cannot get anyone from their office to call me back to discuss this.

TWRA has done a good thing with the elk draws, but they do not do it with excellence. I do appreciate them bumping the draw dates back to earlier in the year, though
 
I did the math a few years back.

Best I can recall odds of being drawn range from around once every 100 years to around once every 1000 years depending on whether you put in for bow or rifle.
Sounds about right. Wish Twra would consider expanding hunting opportunities. South Cherokee would be a contender for an expanding elk population.
 
Sounds about right. Wish Twra would consider expanding hunting opportunities. South Cherokee would be a contender for an expanding elk population.

Some of the draw data can be found online but they haven't updated since 2020 and there is no info for the new EHZs added a few years back. I was told the new Elk Biologist is getting the numbers together to publish updated statistics but he was in the field when I tried to call.

To your point, there are somewhere between 450-500 Elk estimated to be in Tennessee in the EHZs. On an annual basis, 10-12 are killed.

Going low/high that's about 2.7% harvest of total population of Elk

Deer are closer to 18% harvest annually.


My "guess" based on Elk density in Kentucky is that Tennessee's EHZ could support around 1600 Elk. Maybe they are being conservative to try and get there quicker.
 
I will take 1 out of 800 odds for a specific area and weapon type draw vs. 1 out of perhaps 30,000 anytime. Those are roughly the odds based on my understanding from previous quota draws for TN vs. KY. But, math makes my head hurt.
 
seeing as how 198 were introduced in 2000 why are the guesstimated numbers so low, there haven't been that many killed legally.
 
seeing as how 198 were introduced in 2000 why are the guesstimated numbers so low, there haven't been that many killed legally.
They only released 50 in 2000.

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Below is their population estimate graph 2006-2016.

What isn't clear is why their estimate in 2009 was so high, but so low in 2012. This doesn't look like great data collection to me. By their own admission, these Elk population estimates have a low confidence interval.

"The 2016 population survey resulted in an estimate of 349 elk, yet the upper and lower confidence limits were 195.9 and 636.1 animals, respectively."

That's a very poor confidence limit for a low-complexity system, and more akin to a guess than a scientific estimate. Also, they are also using a linear trend line, but that's not how population growth works, it's exponential. More elk = more elk faster.

According to this graph, which I have little confidence in, the elk population:

* Doubled in 3 years from 2006-2009
* Dropped back down in 2010
* No growth between 2010 - 2014


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Summary: TWRA has no idea how many Elk there are. Extrapolating 2016 data to today, there should be significantly more than 450 Elk.

Strictly from an analytical perspective, and considering that about 100 Bull Elk have been harvested, I think the actual number of Elk today should be closer to 650, which is just about the upper level of their confidence limit in 2016.
 
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You know I don't recall where I read 198 at, I was thinking that was way more than I remembered, think they done 2 loads before Ky shut us down.
 
There was a elk killed on a deer hunt at Catoosa this year, it was a legal kill. found 1 field and got out and looked it over, elk tracks and poop all over it so they are spreading out, I would have voted to put them there first, more grass lands with the work they have done over the last 20 or so years.
 
They have done better in KY due all the reclaimed mines being turned into large food plots/better habitat and overall less populated areas. There is just not enough open areas to grow the population where everyone would like it to be in N Cumberland area. KY elk started just 4 years earlier than TN did in 1997 vs 2001 for TN. They will spread out slowly and will start end up on a lot of private in the future I believe. I have seen them on a private down low in Anderson CO. I like the earlier app window, let people make plans and schedule vacation time way out for a once in lifetime opportunity. If you do not remember then you are not that serious about it anyway. I apply in about 12 states total for all sorts of big game and somehow remember every year. A month sometimes two months for western states is the standard app window.
 
We need to relocate some more elk like all the other states are doing and get our population up. TWRA needs to spend some of that money that they have been wasting on maintenance and do some restocking.
 
States are refusing to allow them to be hauled through property, Ky filed some type of suit against us.
 
At one point, KY was drawing ~900 tags of mixed cow/bull and archery/rifle. Their elk population is crazy compared to TN. The reclaimed mining areas are perfect habitat for elk.
 

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