Survival probability greatly reduced study finds

[fairchaser]

https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/newsroom/release/103136

 

[BSK]

Thanks for posting the study fairchaser.

 

[Ski]

While the results aren't unexpected, it is the first study I've seen of wild deer where impact on herd is quantifiable.

@fairchaser you have been sounding the alarm for years and this study very closely aligns with what you and others have been seeing in real time.

 

[fairchaser]

While the results aren't unexpected, it is the first study I've seen of wild deer where impact on herd is quantifiable.

@fairchaser you have been sounding the alarm for years and this study very closely aligns with what you and others have been seeing in real time.

Thanks Ski! This is what we experienced. Once the prevalence rate on does got to 30%, there were noticeable declines in population. We only killed 10 does this season but only 1 positive. I'm hoping this wasn't a statistical anomaly and that we might see a bump in the population now. Our bucks were still at 50-60% but they aren't as critical to the population as does.

 

[Snake]

The effect of CWD plus killing them at a pace not normal how would anyone not expect the deer population to decline ?? I just don't understand the concept of killing more deer to off set CWD .

 

[mike243]

The effect of CWD plus killing them at a pace not normal how would anyone not expect the deer population to decline ?? I just don't understand the concept of killing more deer to off set CWD .

It's to lower the population and to slow down the need to range farther to find doe's to breed, less interaction between deer should slow down the transfer, it boils down to less deer for a undetermined time, at some point the numbers can be allowed to raise again but maybe not to previous #'s. it's not a season or 2 game, I am not sure how long it will take to lower the infection but with it taking a couple years for 1 to die it might take awhile and some areas may see most of the deer gone in pockets.

 

[Snake]

It's to lower the population and to slow down the need to range farther to find doe's to breed, less interaction between deer should slow down the transfer, it boils down to less deer for a undetermined time, at some point the numbers can be allowed to raise again but maybe not to previous #'s. it's not a season or 2 game, I am not sure how long it will take to lower the infection but with it taking a couple years for 1 to die it might take awhile and some areas may see most of the deer gone in pockets.

Look to me like if you lower the population the bucks would tend to travel further away since there will be less does . Why not let nature take its course....deer are really unique in their will to survive ?

 

[fairchaser]

The effect of CWD plus killing them at a pace not normal how would anyone not expect the deer population to decline ?? I just don't understand the concept of killing more deer to off set CWD .

The state did allow many more deer to be killed after CWD was discovered however, it didn't result in more deer harvested. Fewer hunters resulted in fewer deer killed. Over time, there were fewer deer available to be killed. The deer herd at Ames is less than half of what it was in its heyday. Seems like the population is near rock bottom so we'll see if this helped to lower the infection rate. The population decline is more about disease than hunter over harvest. In the end, the deer herd will heal itself without much influence from hunters. IMO

 

[ROB]

Just to point out the obvious, if the WI DNR is measuring the survival of CWD positive deer, they are doing so with a live test. That live test may not be ready for prime time but there is one.

 

[fairchaser]

Just to point out the obvious, if the WI DNR is measuring the survival of CWD positive deer, they are doing so with a live test. That live test may not be ready for prime time but there is one.

Yes, there is. Ames tested captured deer too. Idk if it's as accurate but they can test it from the tonsils.

 

[JJ3]

This looks likes an informative study — will be interesting to see what other findings it generates as it continues.

It's also interesting that for the 10 does killed at Ames that only 1 tested positive. Makes you wonder if their social circle they interact with has been reduced to a level that the spread is slowing. The next couple of years will be telling.

How did the 2 bucks you kill this year test? I would guess the big one being a mature buck was probably positive?

 

[timberjack86]

The effect of CWD plus killing them at a pace not normal how would anyone not expect the deer population to decline ?? I just don't understand the concept of killing more deer to off set CWD .

I agree, could we be killing deer that have a natural immunity to cwd?

 

[Snake]

I agree, could we be killing deer that have a natural immunity to cwd?

Exactly...I could understand if they were dropping like flies to a last ditch effort ....like grasping at straws to stop the disease. Why not try to protect those that's not effected ....somehow ?

 

[wobblegobble]

no one believes studies anymore, only what cousin jed tells them.

 

[knightrider]

no one believes studies anymore, only what cousin jed tells them.

And hes just as close as 90% of the flawed data used in most "studies". You can make a study fit what ever narrative you have if thats your goal.

 

[DeerCamp]

Most people don't realize that Whitetail Deer are an ancient species. They have been around in current form for between 2-4 million years.

The fact that CWD is just now popping in the age of modern man is an indicator that it might be our fault. Doubt we can fix it, but I'm pretty sure nature can given enough time.

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

Wisconsin isn't the face of sound deer management especially CWD

 

[swampbadger]

I killed the first confirmed cwd deer in shelby county. I had been eating deer out of those bottoms a decade before they started testing for them.

I went back to killing deer and just eating them and quit worrying about cwd. I think ehd is way more deadly to deer. There's not been one instance anywhere that has had cwd transferred to humans.

I will probably be the first one to get sick if it's possible. I promise I will report it to y'all on here if it happens. In the meantime, anyone offering processed cwd positive meat here in sw TN is more than welcome to let me know. I will happily come get it, take it and eat it.

I believe that no deer hides the entire time. I believe herds of all deer step out in fields at some point to feed. With generous harvest regulations on private land for 6 seasons before the regs were slightly reduced this last season, I believe that more deer are being shot. Also land is being developed and the human population of TN has blown up over the same amount of time. I think that's also been a direct correlation of deer population decline.

I enjoy data, however I also follow Dan Infalt from WI and believe a lot of his sentiments towards WI DNR and their mismanagement of CWD.

To each his own, and I respect everyone's individual opinions on the subject matter.

 

[deerhunter10]

I killed the first confirmed cwd deer in shelby county. I had been eating deer out of those bottoms a decade before they started testing for them.

I went back to killing deer and just eating them and quit worrying about cwd. I think ehd is way more deadly to deer.

I don't think anyone that has dealt or seen a true ehd die off would ever disagree with that statement. It's very pocketed but if you're in that pocket it's devastating. It's the main reason we started and will always have multiple farms preferably several miles between them.

 

[knightrider]

I don't think anyone that has dealt or seen a true ehd die off would ever disagree with that statement. It's very pocketed but if you're in that pocket it's devastating. It's the main reason we started and will always have multiple farms preferably several miles between them.

Have a farm of 80 acres that held clise to 30-40 on a normal hunt,was wiped out in 2008, roughly 10 -15 square miles that was hit, Seen the first deer on that farm two years ago now have about six that are homebodies on that 80 acres, only took 15 years

 

[wobblegobble]

And hes just as close as 90% of the flawed data used in most "studies". You can make a study fit what ever narrative you have if thats your goal.

Sure studies are peer reviewed meaning others replicate the findings and see if they get similar results. No conspiracy theories

 

[lol]

And hes just as close as 90% of the flawed data used in most "studies". You can make a study fit what ever narrative you have if thats your goal.

Most folks, especially journalists, have no clue how to read a study and tend to misrepresent the conclusions.

 

[knightrider]

Most folks, especially journalists, have no clue how to read a study and tend to misrepresent the conclusions.

By mistake ofcourse

 

[hammer33]

Hmmm the article makes some gigantic leaps of logic.
So they are saying that about x% of cwd infected deer that they caught and collared didn't survive to the next year?
1. How old were the deer? What % of each group were near the natural end of their expected lifespan?
2. WHAT exactly caused death? Hunting? Cars? Weather? anything location specific? Other factors than CWD?
3. How does the data compare by age/sex/location to the natural mortality of the wild deer herd?

Correlation does not equal causation.

 

[MickThompson]

Hmmm the article makes some gigantic leaps of logic.
So they are saying that about x% of cwd infected deer that they caught and collared didn't survive to the next year?
1. How old were the deer? What % of each group were near the natural end of their expected lifespan?
2. WHAT exactly caused death? Hunting? Cars? Weather? anything location specific? Other factors than CWD?
3. How does the data compare by age/sex/location to the natural mortality of the wild deer herd?

Correlation does not equal causation.

Go read the literature and I imagine they'd answer your questions