Season Predictions?

[gil1]

I put this in QDM because I think it fits here better than anywhere else because of the food, water, cover, health, weather, etc. factors.

Last season, I remember BSK saying that because of a lack of acorns and other reasons, the deer would stay mostly out of the woods and hang out near edge cover. That turned out to be true on my lease.

Considering last year's food stresses, do you think the headgear will be slightly less because of lack of food last year?

Do you think deer body sizes will be good because we have had decent weather and food? Or is the lack of rainfall causing concern?

Is EHD fatalities and those deer that struggled but barely survived going to show its effects this year?

What about hunting implications?

Will the acorns drive the deer out in the woods somewhat? I'm seeing more and more nuts but not a bumper crop, which is usually good for hunting.

Will the rut be drawn out because of last year's stresses and late born fawns?

What am I missing? Every year, I try to write a fairly educated hunting report based on all these factors and more. It especially helps out the novices on my lease. If you had to, what would be your hunting report for the upcoming season? Thanks.

 

[Stalker]

Venison steaks for supper is my prediction... :grin:

 

[scn]

My report would be to ignore all of the above questions/worries and try to enjoy each and every day they can get out there, to be thankful for the physical (and economic) health that allows them to participate in the sport, and to especially cherish time spent with friends and family as it doesn't last forever. Hope you all have a great season, and don't sweat the small stuff.

 

[gil1]

My report would be to ignore all of the above questions/worries and try to enjoy each and every day they can get out there, to be thankful for the physical (and economic) health that allows them to participate in the sport, and to especially cherish time spent with friends and family as it doesn't last forever. Hope you all have a great season, and don't sweat the small stuff.

A good message, but we've discussed this before. I know dern well you love to sweat the small stuff as much as I do.
Yeah, I feel lucky to be alive and to be able to breathe the forset air. But when I'm away from the woods, I love to ANALyze!

 

[scn]

I'm trying to turn over a new leaf and just go with the flow-but, yeah, I sweat some of it, too. If things break right towards the end of the week I'll get to hunt and spend some time with a couple of gentleman that started me out 40 bow seasons ago. The deer become secondary, and I've learned not to take it for granted.

 

[156p&y]

Well we need rain badly or a lot of the acorns are not going to mature all the way. If we get rain I expect to have a near bumper crop of chinkapins in my area but other acorn trees are not as loaded, red oaks being the worst in shape. If the red oaks don't produce well, I'll be happy, but if the chinkapins fail I'll be extremely disapointed. Normally the chinkapins fall early in the archery season and up in to mid-late October. In the past when I actually had chinkapins on the farm we had some heavy weights going nuts during late october. So there are a huge number of variables that are going through my mind. For what I'm seeing now I'm expecting to see some pretty intense behavior from the bucks this season. I'm already finding working scrapes from mature deer, and rubs are popping up everywhere there is major activity. From the sign I'm seeing on the farm and off the farm on other places I hunt the deer seem to be anxious to get dominance over the others. I even had a report from a very trustworthy hunter the other day that he watched two big bucks lock up and actually go down to the ground a couple of times before seperating. I've never heard or seen the aggression that we are seeing currently this early in the year. I'm excited and think that if we get cold weather when the does come in estrus we should see some of the best rut action I've ever seen in TN.
For some odd reason I'm seeing some of the biggest 3.5 year old deer I've ever seen in my life this year, but on the flip side the 3.5s I watched last season that are now 4.5 gained very little as far as inches. If this happened state wide I which it's possible. I would expect to see some giant 3.5s killed and a bunch of stalky, big bodied bruiser 4.5s with average racks 120-140 class.

 

[BSK]

All good questions gil1.

Last year, I had predicted we would see poor antler development per age-class this year because of the acorn failure last fall and the over-all poor health last fall. However, it appears the heavy rainfall once the drought broke, continuing all the way through the spring months (until the end of May) really compensated for the poor early fall health. In fact, this year I'm seeing the best antler development per age-class that I've ever seen. I have few "below average" gross scoring bucks this year. In addition, body size and condition look excellent, much better than last year. This year I have does so big and fat that at first glance you would think they are 2 1/2 year-old bucks.

I also predicted we would see late fawning due to the late rut. That has been accurate for my area. I'm just now seeing fawns on camera. Normally they are old enough to be up and traveling with their mothers by late July. This year I hardly got a single picture of a fawn until after September 1, but now I'm getting quite a few fawn pictures. Only time will tell how good the fawn crop really is (I use hunter observations as the best indicator of actual fawn recruitment rates--fawns are always under-represented in photo censuses).

What earlier looked like a bumper white oak acorn crop in my area is now down to a below average acorn crop, and the longer we go without rain, the less that crop will be. However, I still think there will be enough acorns to draw deer away from crops and food plots and towards the hardwoods. In fact, having a moderate to boderline poor acorn crop will be a huge help to hunters. Instead of acorns being everywhere, spreading out deer feeding patterns, the deer may be concentrated around the fewer trees that produced well.

A for the rut, I hope it will be on time this year. I'm almost glad it isn't a bumper acorn crop because the last time that happened we appeared to see more rutting activity during the "false rut" in mid-October (28-30 days prior to the normal peak of breeding) than we did during the traditional peak of breeding (mid-November).

 

[Team Browning]

Again - A good question - the opening day weather appears to be starting out a little cooler than the last 2 or 3-years and while we havent had a ton of rain - certainly more than last year. My club's preperation has been very good with habitat + plots. All we can do now is sit in the tree or blind and see what God gives us. It all generally works out before the end of January.

 

[Team Browning]

Just wondering BSK but you mention fawns being born later so there will be some smaller fawns out with does. At what point do you (meaning you specifically) not pull the trigger if a doe has a fawn or do you not shoot does that have fawns with them. I wouldnt just out of purpose but I know for some folks it doesnt matter.

 

[Tennessee Todd]

My report would be to ignore all of the above questions/worries and try to enjoy each and every day they can get out there, to be thankful for the physical (and economic) health that allows them to participate in the sport, and to especially cherish time spent with friends and family as it doesn't last forever. Hope you all have a great season, and don't sweat the small stuff.

Got a prostate exam coming up, don't ya Steve?

 

[BSK]

Just wondering BSK but you mention fawns being born later so there will be some smaller fawns out with does. At what point do you (meaning you specifically) not pull the trigger if a doe has a fawn or do you not shoot does that have fawns with them. I wouldnt just out of purpose but I know for some folks it doesnt matter.

Once fawns are traveling with their mother, they're pretty close to weaned (they start traveling with their mother around 4 weeks of age and are weaned at 6 weeks). Weaned fawns have a pretty high survival rate if orphaned. Personally, I might not shoot a doe with fawns THIS YEAR opening weekend of bow season, but by October I would have no problems with it.

By November, I'm specifically targetting does with fawns in an attempt to orphan as many button bucks as possible. Orphaned button bucks actually have a higher survival rate than unorphaned button bucks.

 

[JCDEERMAN]

I love to kill does with button bucks! They hang around and more than likely arent pushed out to a new area.