Perception versus reality

[BSK]

I often write and talk about why it's so important to collect detailed hunter observation data. Human perception is too flawed to produce meaningful comparisons between years regarding hunter effort versus deer seen. This year on my property is a prime example. If you talk to the hunters who hunt the property, this has been a terrible year. No rutting activity was observed by hunters at all. Not the first pestering or tending chase has been observed. Two of the three hard-core hunters of the property are still buckless.

Yet looking at collected observation data, this year hasn't been that bad at all. The deer observation rate (deer observed by hunters per hunting hour) this year is only 17% below average. The buck observation rate has been exactly average. The observation rate of older (2 1/2+ year-old) bucks has been 37% above average, and the observation rate of 3 1/2+ bucks has been 51% above average.

Just one more example of how human perceptions can get in the way of the truth.

 

[jlmustain]

Just one more example of how human perceptions can get in the way of the truth.

That's an interdisciplinary truth. For our advancement and complex natures, it still amazes me how flawed our logic can be.

Are those stats from your property or statewide? How do they relate to the lack of observed rutting activity?

 

[Winchester]

We have experienced very much the same so far here. Our rut hunting has absolutely sucked with chases almost non existent and buck sign being very scarce. That said we have saw and killed some good bucks about like any other year, just hasn't been very exciting hunting, which is where the complaints come from! Everybody loves to hunt when the woods are littered with big buck sign, and bucks are running does all over the place. Ill take them any way I can get them, but im a sucker for a good exciting daylight rut any time I can get it!

 

[BSK]

Are those stats from your property or statewide? How do they relate to the lack of observed rutting activity?

The data is just from the hunters hunting my place.

We've seen no rutting activity, but we've still seen bucks moving. In fact, our older buck harvest rate (2 1/2+ year-old bucks harvested per hunting hour) is the highest it's been in 8 years. Perception-wise, our impressions of the season are being influenced by the fact that just 2 hunters (out of 7) account for 80% of the bucks killed so far.

 

[TN Larry]

I agree. I have seen less buck sign and signs of the rut this year than most years. I have seen quite a few rubs but very few scrapes. I have only saw one buck on a doe's trail, and he was an hour later. With that said, it has been a terrible year in terms of excitement.

HOWEVER, I got to counting last week just how many 2.5+ bucks that I have saw this year, and it is above normal. It may also be the fact that I have not saw many deer this year in terms of numbers. I have saw deer nearly every sit but mostly 1 or 2 with 5 being the most. On a positive note though, I have seen as many bucks as I have does (not counting this year's fawns).

To sum it up, my initial perception would be that his has been a non exciting year. However, when thinking about reality, it hasn't been too bad.

 

[TN Larry]

just 2 hunters (out of 7) account for 80% of the bucks killed so far.

On a side note, I know that you have killed two and someone else has killed two which would be the 80% of the total which also means that you have killed 5 total. Let's see the pics of the other three..........

 

[Deck78]

This skippy attitude is coming from a sandbagger that claims he can't shoot mature deer and manages to harvest two in one year! :) The rest of us agree with the hardcore hunters on your property. THIS YEAR HAS SUCKED FOR BUCK HUNTING!

 

[BSK]

just 2 hunters (out of 7) account for 80% of the bucks killed so far.

On a side note, I know that you have killed two and someone else has killed two which would be the 80% of the total which also means that you have killed 5 total. Let's see the pics of the other three..........

Yup, five total: one yearling (my daughter's first deer), one 2 1/2, two 3 1/2s, and a 5 1/2.

 

[Columbia Scott]

Man that would be tough data to nail down. I had several days in my stand this year where the other hunters are covered up with deer. They reported chasing left and right and saw what I would consider to be a normal number of bucks. I didn't see or hear anything. It depends as much on specific location as anything. Rut activity may have been a little slower this year but I think most of it happened under that full moon period we had.

As far as harvest on our lease, two out of four hunters are still looking for their buck. Two mature bucks were taken. A 129" 9 pointer and my 115" 9 pointer. Mine was tending a doe when I shot him. two carcasses were left by road hunters. These deer were probably 2 1/2 year old bucks. The road hunters were eventually arrested.

My take is that it was a better year than last year. I saw some rutting activity and ended up with a good one.

 

[BSK]

Man that would be tough data to nail down.

And that's why I recommend collecting DETAILED data. It's impossible to "eyeball" this kind of information. Perception always gets in the way.

 

[TN Larry]

Thanks for posting the pics and hate to get off topic, but did your daughter kill the 8 pter that she is holding? If so, the other guys that hunt should be ashamed by letting all of the bucks be killed by girls and a self proclaimed bad hunter. :) That in itself explains why they are having a horrible year.

 

[Headhunter]

the rut just started (this past weekend on our place). Seeing several bucks and nice ones, nothing to shoot yet but they have been on their feet in the daytime the last few days.

 

[BSK]

...but did your daughter kill the 8 pter that she is holding? If so, the other guys that hunt should be ashamed by letting all of the bucks be killed by girls and a self proclaimed bad hunter. :) That in itself explains why they are having a horrible year.

Yes, she killed that buck. She had an incredible year. Only climbed into a stand 5 times, yet she had 3 shooting opportunities, successfully implementing 2 of them. I was really proud of her with that 8-pointer. I let her make all of the decisions about when and where to shoot, and she made a perfect 40 yard shot.

 

[Football Hunter]

That's odd,not knowing exactly where your place is,but using Cathole as a reference,Id say we are less than 30 miles apart.Weve seen more chasing this year than in the last 3.Maybe lucky,being at the right place right time as opposed to previous years?Dont know.But the buck sign came on strong very early and dried up pretty much by the time Gun season started.

I actually saw a 3.5 ,I think,walking with some fawns and a doe Sunday,thought that was really strange,
.

 

[BSK]

That's odd,not knowing exactly where your place is,but using Cathole as a reference,Id say we are less than 30 miles apart.

Cathole is almost my next-door neighbor.

Weve seen more chasing this year than in the last 3.Maybe lucky,being at the right place right time as opposed to previous years?Dont know.But the buck sign came on strong very early and dried up pretty much by the time Gun season started..

I'm hearing from a few hunters that observed good rutting activity, but those saying they saw little to none outnumber those who saw a good rut 10 to 1 easily. Most of my clients in the region experienced the same thing we did--amazing activity on camera in late October, but things just went dead in early November.

 

[deerhunter10]

very interesting... it is crazy just how different the rut can be in daylight hours all over the state and even from one farm to another. this has been the best rut we have seen in daylight hours in a very long time it started about the 2nd weekend of ml and is still going on. it is the longest rut ive ever seen as far as chasing is concerned.

 

[catman529]

All the mature bucks I've seen this year were on camera or on another property while hunting. Have hardly seen anything other than yearling bucks. Deer sightings have been on and off all season. Sometimes they are there and sometimes the woods are dead on what would seem to be good days to hunt. I guess part of that's normal. I have kept a log of every single hunting trip this year and will gather all the data on # of deer etc after season closes

Here's a question for you BSK. On one property I killed a 5.5 and a 3.5 yo buck last year. I saw another that would go 3.5 as well. Two of those were dogging does and one was cruising. This year, no bucks older than a year on the same property. However I have observed 2 or 3 times a big bodied buck a couple hundred yards away on an adjoining property that is cut corn fields. Those deer I saw were cruising or chasing or trailing does. The doe sightings were also way down from last year, except on the other property, where I saw does almost every single time. And last year, the adjoining farm was planted in beans. Do you think the corn this year is keeping most of the deer movement over there? I hunted through the peak rut, and buck-wise, I never saw more than 2 different yearling bucks on 3 separate hunts, on my side of the property line. Trail cam pics also showed less buck movement and a lot was at night. Do you think they mainly stayed in the other property this year because of the corn?

 

[Outdoor Enthusiast]

Catman,
Your description leads me to believe that the decrease in buck sightings is due to hunter pressure rather than a specific habitat change.

Was last year the first time you hunted this spot?

 

[scn]

x2 on the hunter pressure.

BSK has some very interesting research on hunter pressure and deer sightings. If memory serves me correct, he found a strong correlation that after as little as 11 hours of hunting a site, that deer sightings dropped dramatically. And, sometimes it took only moving the stand 50 yds from that spot for them to increase drastically. I've used that research in recent years to make stand decisions, and it has definitally helped my sightings.

 

[BSK]

catman529,

As others mentioned, I suspect what you are seeing is due to hunting pressure. However, any number of other factors could be at play. In addition, never forget that "what is out there" and "what you see while hunting" can be two VERY different things. And it never ceases to amaze me how different those two can be. As I've mentioned many times, with clubs I have worked with, few of the older bucks, especially mature bucks, are ever seen by hunters. And I do mean a very few. Now in farm country, seeing older bucks is much easier, but in hilly hardwoods, expect to see far less than half of the bucks that are "out there" in the woods.

In addition, I find that hunter observation rates fluctuate much more dramatically from year to year than actual deer populations or buck age structure. Those two change very little from year to year, but what is seen by hunters can fluctuate wildly from year to year even for a deer population that has not changed at all between those years.

 

[BSK]

x2 on the hunter pressure.

BSK has some very interesting research on hunter pressure and deer sightings. If memory serves me correct, he found a strong correlation that after as little as 11 hours of hunting a site, that deer sightings dropped dramatically. And, sometimes it took only moving the stand 50 yds from that spot for them to increase drastically. I've used that research in recent years to make stand decisions, and it has definitally helped my sightings.

The interesting thing is, I took another look at that data, and found you can make some very clear distinctions about how long a stand will be productive for older bucks, depending on how long that stand has been in place. For stands where this is the 3rd season or more that they have been in their current position, a hunter basically gets only the first hunt to see a 3 1/2+ year-old buck from that stand before the odds really drop precipitously. For stand where this is the 2nd season in place, a hunter's odds of seeing a 3 1/2+ buck last through just 2 hunts before collapsing. However, for stands in new locations for the current year, their "productivity" lasts much longer. The odds don't really plummet until after the 4th or 5th time the stand is hunted.

 

[scn]

Thanks, Bryan! It definately means moving some ladders next summer.

 

[BSK]

Thanks, Bryan! It definately means moving some ladders next summer.

We moved 20 last summer. Darn near killed us doing it too! Especially considering most of them were the big, heavy 2-person ladders. We moved stands for 4 straight weekends, daylight to dark every day.

 

[WMAn]

x2 on the hunter pressure.

BSK has some very interesting research on hunter pressure and deer sightings. If memory serves me correct, he found a strong correlation that after as little as 11 hours of hunting a site, that deer sightings dropped dramatically. And, sometimes it took only moving the stand 50 yds from that spot for them to increase drastically. I've used that research in recent years to make stand decisions, and it has definitally helped my sightings.

The interesting thing is, I took another look at that data, and found you can make some very clear distinctions about how long a stand will be productive for older bucks, depending on how long that stand has been in place. For stands where this is the 3rd season or more that they have been in their current position, a hunter basically gets only the first hunt to see a 3 1/2+ year-old buck from that stand before the odds really drop precipitously. For stand where this is the 2nd season in place, a hunter's odds of seeing a 3 1/2+ buck last through just 2 hunts before collapsing. However, for stands in new locations for the current year, their "productivity" lasts much longer. The odds don't really plummet until after the 4th or 5th time the stand is hunted.

BSK,

Can that first season productivity be maintained year after year by not hunting a stand on consecutive years?

I have enough spots to choose from that I have only been hunting a stand once per season every other season. I'm wondering if it would be just as well to hunt a stand 2 or 3 times every other season.

 

[BSK]

WMAn,

I'm sure how hard a stand was hunted in a given year probably plays a role in how long it will stay fresh the following year. But I've not analyzed the data from that angle yet.

 

[WMAn]

The first year stands you reference that are productive over 4 or 5 hunts. What frequency do those hunts occur at? Once a week for four weeks? Twice a week for two weeks?

Have you examined the impact of hunt frequency within a season on a stand's productivity?

 

[BSK]

Have you examined the impact of hunt frequency within a season on a stand's productivity?

Nope. Just analyzed the data by year (full hunting season), by years stand has been in place, and by each hunt within that year. I haven't attempted to analyze the data by frequency of visit to each stand.

 

[catman529]

Outdoor enthusiast and BSK -

Not sure about hunter pressure. Sure could have affected it as the season went on, but I also wasn't seeing the groups of does regularly like I did last year in bow season. Judging by sign, hunting, trail cam pics and jumping deer off the bed, there have not been as many does or bucks in there since the first day I hunted there this year. It started with not as many does and then when the rut came around there were also not as many bucks. They were all over the corn on other property though. Could be hunter pressure but not sure because the numbers were down from day 1. In the big grown up CRP there is still a decent herd of does and fawns. I checked the cam at my salt lick today and then sat for an hour and heard a couple deer rustle as they got off the bed nearby. When I had to leave to get back for work at 4.15 pm, I jumped several deer in the tall weeds on my way out, similar to the doe herds I saw in there last December. But on the trail cam it's gone back to lots of does and a couple yearling spikes.

Last year was the first year I hunted there. Do you think the deer really would avoid the areas I hunted the following season because of my pressure from last year?

 

[TN Larry]

Outdoor enthusiast and BSK -

Not sure about hunter pressure. Sure could have affected it as the season went on, but I also wasn't seeing the groups of does regularly like I did last year in bow season. Judging by sign, hunting, trail cam pics and jumping deer off the bed, there have not been as many does or bucks in there since the first day I hunted there this year. It started with not as many does and then when the rut came around there were also not as many bucks. They were all over the corn on other property though. Could be hunter pressure but not sure because the numbers were down from day 1. In the big grown up CRP there is still a decent herd of does and fawns. I checked the cam at my salt lick today and then sat for an hour and heard a couple deer rustle as they got off the bed nearby. When I had to leave to get back for work at 4.15 pm, I jumped several deer in the tall weeds on my way out, similar to the doe herds I saw in there last December. But on the trail cam it's gone back to lots of does and a couple yearling spikes.

Last year was the first year I hunted there. Do you think the deer really would avoid the areas I hunted the following season because of my pressure from last year?

In my humble opinion, I think it has a lot to do with running a trail cam and bow hunting in the middle of their core area. JMO though from reading about this spot over the last year. It seems that you have either been busted there or ran deer out of there this year on numerous occasions. If it were me, I wouldn't set foot in there until Nov. I could be totally wrong and it have something to do with food or a number of other factors.

 

[BSK]

catman529,

Diagnosing why deer make shifts in their seasonal ranges can be extremely difficult. Usually, it is not just one factor (like whether or not corn is planted in a specific field). Deer WILL make shifts to utilize a particular food source in a given year, but most often deer spend the most daylight hours in the areas where they feel least pressured by humans. The fact that your jumping deer out of their beds means they are being pressured in the one area they most need to feel safe--their bedding area.

Last year was the first year I hunted there. Do you think the deer really would avoid the areas I hunted the following season because of my pressure from last year?

ABSOLUTELY! It doesn't take deer long to figure out where they are and are not being pressured by human predators, and adjust their movements accordingly.