Natural Non- Hrvest mortality rates?

BHC

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BSK, thanks for all the info!

By all indications it appears we lose roughly half our 1.5 yr olds, and half of our 2.5 yr olds every yr before we reach the next age class... Which looking back we've had some nice 2.5 yr old bucks that were fairly unique/ identifiable. I always thought they'de be a bruiser in a yr or two, but we're never identified again...

Basically until a deer reaches 3.5 regardless of if we don't kill him, he still only stands a 50% chance of reaching maturity...
 

BSK

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That's about right BHC. Even in areas with good buck age structures, around half of yearling bucks don't make it to 2 1/2 years old. Of course, that's in areas where they are legal for harvest. Some states have laws trying to prevent yearling harvest, and in those areas, far more bucks live to 2 1/2 years old.

The most common "loss" numbers I see--especially in TN--are a 50% loss of yearlings, a 40% loss of 2 1/2 year-olds, and a 33% loss of 3 1/2 year-olds.

Mature buck losses vary dramatically by region, as natural mortality begins to factor in at that point. In agricultural regions, losses of mature bucks appears to be considerably less than in rugged forest regions, and I think easier conditions and better food sources play a role in that reduced mortality.
 

TheLBLman

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I think many hunter-managers should give a lot of thought about what BSK pointed out here, for which I totally agree.

BSK said:
Well I hate to tell hunters/managers this, but unless they're censusing an area of 40,000 to 50,000 acres, those density numbers are virtually meaningless . . . . . deer move around.

Unless you are working with MASSIVE areas, bucks will be killed beyond the boundaries of the managed property. Even in the sited study, where study properties averaged over 12,000 acres, more than half of the harvest of some buck age-classes occurred OFF the study properties. Now think about the average hunter/manager trying to calculate buck loss rates for a 1,000 acre property? ALL of the bucks using that property probably also use surrounding properties, where they can be harvested.
This reality makes a strong case for the importance of "statewide" deer management policies.
 

BSK

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Wes Parrish said:
This reality makes a strong case for the importance of "statewide" deer management policies.

I agree Wes, IF the goal is to see maximum management effect.

However, as I get older, I lean more and more towards a "means testing" view of management. By that, I mean regulation to alter herd conditions (goal oriented management) should be used only when and where it is required; i.e. where current regulations are not correcting a long-standing imbalance. I've become very leery of regulatory changes designed to produce a change simply "because we can."

So the question becomes, "Does the state have a long-standing imbalance in the deer herd?" In my opinion, TN as a whole does not have an imbalance in the deer herds. Now without question there are given locations that have problems, maybe even entire counties or clusters of counties, but as a whole, I see no glaring problems with TN's deer herds. In fact, I'm simply amazed at how balanced our herds are in large sections of the state, both in adult sex ratio and buck age structure. Hence, no STATEWIDE regulatory changes are justified.

Of course, then the question becomes, "Are there regional problems that could be addressed by localized regulatory changes?" THAT is a very interesting question that deserves consideration and debate.
 

BSK

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Wes Parrish said:
I think many hunter-managers should give a lot of thought about what BSK pointed out here, for which I totally agree.

BSK said:
Well I hate to tell hunters/managers this, but unless they're censusing an area of 40,000 to 50,000 acres, those density numbers are virtually meaningless . . . . . deer move around.

Unless you are working with MASSIVE areas, bucks will be killed beyond the boundaries of the managed property. Even in the sited study, where study properties averaged over 12,000 acres, more than half of the harvest of some buck age-classes occurred OFF the study properties. Now think about the average hunter/manager trying to calculate buck loss rates for a 1,000 acre property? ALL of the bucks using that property probably also use surrounding properties, where they can be harvested.

I posted the above information in an attempt to dissuade hunters/managers from trying to use photo census data to "calculate out" their deer herd into the future. To accurately calculate a deer herd into the future requires a "closed system" (where addition and subtraction of deer into the population is controllable). Unfortunately, unless the manager is working with massively large areas, this isn't the case. Deer move around far too much seasonally, annually, and over their lifetimes to ever have population calculations work out (again, assuming "common-sized" properties).

However, I realize this point may make hunters/managers question the value of small-land management. In essence, if deer move around so much, and single-property management can't have that major of an impact on future herd structure, why manage at all? The answer to that question is, "because real-world testing shows it works." For me, HOW it works is the really important question. We know that deer move around so much that small-land management shouldn't work, in theory. But it does work. So how does it work?

Nobody has the answer to that yet. Since no real answers exist yet, all we have is theory. Although I'm constantly adjusting my own personal theories on this topic, here are my top three ideas on why small-land management works, in order of importance:

1) Deer have an amazing ability to rapidly identify areas in which they are safe from human predation (hunting). They also show the ability to react to the sudden surge of hunting pressure each year by shifting their activities to these "safer" areas (sanctuaries). Once hunters on a given property set age-based limits on their buck harvests, these properties rapidly become "meccas" for hunting-pressured bucks, drawing in many more bucks than would normally use the area. This places more bucks under protective harvest restrictions than the size of the property would suggest, creating a "force multiplier" to the management's impact.

2) Most single-property management plans involve alterations of the habitat to improve conditions for deer, usually involving improvements in food sources and cover habitat. Over time, as these changes "grow into" the intended better habitat, they draw more deer onto the management property. Without question it is much easier to produce advanced buck age structures when you have more bucks to work with.

3) There are more hunters out there managing that what most of us assume. Even a "patchwork quilt" of individual hunters or hunters on individual properties practicing management has a significant effect. Those scattered individual hunters or properties under management are passing up enough young bucks that everybody in the area is benefitting.
 

TheLBLman

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BSK, I believe your 3 points have much validity.

At the same time, you take most any two comparable 500 to 1,000-acre tracts (similar habitat, soil, crops, management goals) . . . . .

Surround one on 4 sides with a "statewide" regulation of 3 bucks annually and a 60-day gun season. Surround the other on 4 sides with a "statewide" regulation of 1 buck annually and a 30-day gun season. I believe you will see a huge difference in the same management efforts on one tract vs. the other for no other reason than those bordering statewide regs.

By no means am I wanting a statewide 1-buck limit in TN (although I continue to believe 2 would be most ideal). However, I do believe shorter gun seasons and lower buck limits can greatly enhance the management goal of more larger antlered 3 1/2 and older bucks, which does seem to be a very common deer-management goal?
 

BSK

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Wes Parrish said:
At the same time, you take most any two comparable 500 to 1,000-acre tracts (similar habitat, soil, crops, management goals) . . . . .

Surround one on 4 sides with a "statewide" regulation of 3 bucks annually and a 60-day gun season. Surround the other on 4 sides with a "statewide" regulation of 1 buck annually and a 30-day gun season. I believe you will see a huge difference in the same management efforts on one tract vs. the other for no other reason than those bordering statewide regs.

Wes,

Your theory makes sense on several levels. I've come to believe very strongly that one of the best ways to improve the buck age structure in any given location is simply to reduce the buck harvest. Killing less total bucks increases buck survival rates which in turn increases buck age structure. In fact, I think reductions in total buck harvest work equally well, if not better, than many age/size restrictions, as those place intense harvest pressure on the older buck age-classes.

However, looking at the buck age structure of some Midwestern areas famous for their trophy bucks--and low buck limits and extremely short gun seasons--they don't appear to have substantially better buck age structures than many parts of TN have. They just have MORE bucks per square mile, much easier hunting conditions (more open ground which forces bucks into more predictable travel corridors increasing their harvestability), and of course much better habitat that grows larger antlers.
 

TheLBLman

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BSK said:
In fact, I think reductions in total buck harvest work equally well, if not better, than many age/size restrictions, as those place intense harvest pressure on the older buck age-classes.
I believe you are correct, as no antler restrictions tend to "balance" the harvest better over all age classes, often allowing more 2 1/2 and older bucks to survive to 3 1/2 and older. I also believe there is less antler high grading, which is a much bigger issue than previously imagined, particularly in that the more buck hunting allowed, the more antler restrictions, the greater this issue.

BSK said:
However, looking at the buck age structure of some Midwestern areas famous for their trophy bucks--and low buck limits and extremely short gun seasons--they don't appear to have substantially better buck age structures than many parts of TN have. They just have MORE bucks per square mile . . . . .
I suspect they may also have less issue with antler high-grading than we do in TN. But like you say, they have MORE bucks per square mile, which is typically augmented by lower buck limits and shorter gun seasons. At the same time, it's somewhat an apples-to-oranges comparison when comparing the Midwest deer herd/hunting to Southeast deer herd/hunting. More valid might be comparing the deer herd dynamics of all state line border counties on either side of the TN-KY line, where statewide regulation may be the single biggest difference effecting outcomes.
 
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