Andy S. said:
Any idea as to why you and others have experienced a 33% reduction in November Buck observation rates since 2005/2006? Weather patterns maybe? Reduced herd size, thus fewer out there to see?
Two things have been the driving force in declines in older buck sightings on my place since the peak in 2005-06. First, is a major decline in sanctuary cover. The percentage of our property in high-quality sanctuary covered peaked in 2005-06, and began a sharp decline after that, as the areas of regrowth grew beyond the good cover stage and into the poorer-quality pole-timber stage. I had spent so much time working on other people's properties, I had let me own project lag and hadn't had any timber harvested in a number of years, hence no new cuts to grow into the good cover stage to replace what what being lost through the natural successional regrowth process of a young hardwood saplings. Without top-quality cover, older-age bucks stopped being drawn to our property during the high-pressure MZ and gun seasons. In fact, trail-camera data indicates this lack of older bucks has been a real factor; it isn't just sightings, but the actual population of older bucks declined.
Secondly, just about the same time (starting in 2007) several new family members joined the deer hunting fold and our hunting pressure skyrocketed. In the past, we had been placing less than 200 hours of hunting time into our November hunting, but since 2007, we've been placing 350-400 hunting hours into November hunting. This near doubling of hunting pressure has definitely produced more nocturnal movement by all deer, especially targeted older bucks.
This combination of declining sanctuary cover and increased hunting pressure has really taken a toll on older buck sightings. In an attempt to remedy what can be remedied, we began a major timber-cutting project three summers ago. Over the last three years, we've cut many new patches of timber. However, it is just now starting to grow into the "good cover stage" and we did observed an increase in the number of older bucks using the property this year, as well as an actual increase in older buck population (trail-camera data). Once we get all of these new timber cuts into thick cover (cover habitat will peak during the period of 2014 through 2018), we will have double the amount of the property in sanctuary that we had in 2005-06. It will be interesting to see just how much this greater amount of sanctuary can overcome the doubling of hunting pressure.
All of the above is why I so often say that in hardwood habitat, "Cover is King." Looking at the data statistically, actual year-to-year buck populations show ZERO correlation with the amount of the property in high food production. However, buck populations show a direct correlation to the amount of the property in good-quality cover. Again, it will be very interesting to see if these two factors--cover and buck population--continue to track each other as cover habitat increases rapidly over the next few years, or if the higher hunting pressure, at some point, causes the buck population to "max out" at some given level, despite increases in cover.