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Interesting article on deer kill statistics
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<blockquote data-quote="younggun308" data-source="post: 5549492" data-attributes="member: 4042"><p>If they have evidence-based priors for the percentage of deer with 4+ points that are 3.5+ years old in the population, and an estimate of how many of them are killed by hunting, they probably project this onto kill reports.</p><p></p><p>Wouldn't bet against it being a Bayesian model, where the results are a couple a ranges of estimates for what % of antlered deer are yearlings, 2.5, and 3.5+, with different confidence intervals.</p><p>My dissertation uses something similar to estimate election fraud in Russia, to get a "true" estimate of voter turnout (as opposed to the falsified numbers), votes for each party, etc.</p><p>But that's based on assumptions about what's "reasonable," for lack of a better term. I would imagine those assumptions are based on exhaustive surveys in smaller areas. Then extrapolated.</p><p></p><p>(Disclosure: I didn't read the article, sorry)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="younggun308, post: 5549492, member: 4042"] If they have evidence-based priors for the percentage of deer with 4+ points that are 3.5+ years old in the population, and an estimate of how many of them are killed by hunting, they probably project this onto kill reports. Wouldn’t bet against it being a Bayesian model, where the results are a couple a ranges of estimates for what % of antlered deer are yearlings, 2.5, and 3.5+, with different confidence intervals. My dissertation uses something similar to estimate election fraud in Russia, to get a “true” estimate of voter turnout (as opposed to the falsified numbers), votes for each party, etc. But that’s based on assumptions about what’s “reasonable,” for lack of a better term. I would imagine those assumptions are based on exhaustive surveys in smaller areas. Then extrapolated. (Disclosure: I didn’t read the article, sorry) [/QUOTE]
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Interesting article on deer kill statistics
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