Hunter perception versus reality

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BSK

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 11, 1999
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92,577
City & State/Province
Nashville, TN
One of the most difficult aspects of deer management is 90% of SUCCESSFUL deer management is actually hunter management. Teaching hunters how their actions impact the local deer population, and getting them to understand and WANT to fully participate in the process--which includes WANTING to become a better, more knowledgeable hunter--is unquestionably the key to a successful program.

As simple as this sounds, we humans have a few traits that increase the difficulty of managing us, at least from a scientific perspective. For whatever reason, and I'm sure this trait was very useful when we were still living in caves, but we humans have the exasperating trait of believing even the slightest inkling of a perception as being "The Final Truth Handed Down by God Almighty Himself." Once we have a strong feeling about something, we will believe it to be true, no matter any "proof" to the contrary. In essence, the old adage of "Perception is Reality."

That fact was brought home again this year with my own hunting party. We experienced the worst rut we've ever had. We hunted before, during, and after what is normally the peak of breeding, and did not witness a single buck chasing an estrus doe--something that is commonplace on our property at that time of year. Because of those experiences, every hunter in the group spent most of their non-hunting time wondering what was wrong and talking about how this was the worst hunting year we've ever had. Even when we ended up killing more shooter bucks than we ever have--the most in 27 years of hunting the property--opinions and perceptions did not change. No matter what data was presented, because of their poor rut hunting experiences, the hunters were absolutely locked into their negative perceptions.

Eventually, the evidence that this year was not terrible, but actually pretty good, became overwhelming. Yet ask any of the hunters, and unquestionable this was the worst year EVER, and this year bordered on a DISASTER.

Yet here's reality:

[Looking at deer, buck, and "shooter" buck (any buck 2 1/2+) observation and harvest rates over the last six years--the period over which we have applied very heavy hunting pressure to the property]

This year:

Deer observed per hunting hour was dead on the average for the last 6 years.

The percent of hunts with deer sightings was right on average.

Bucks (any age) observed per hunting hour were 4% above average.

The percent of hunts with buck sightings was right on average.

"Shooter" bucks observed per hunting hour were 30% above average and was the highest rate of the last 6 years.

The percent of observed bucks that were "shooters" (46%) was 22% above average and the highest percentage of the last 6 years.

And what is usually most important to hunters--"shooter" bucks killed per hunting hour--was 42% above average, and actually the fastest rate of shooter buck harvest we've EVER had in 27 years!


Yet ask the hunters, and because the rut sucked, this year was TERRIBLE! I can't win... Perception trumps reality every time.
 
BSK said:
One of the most difficult aspects of deer management is 90% of SUCCESSFUL deer management is actually hunter management. Teaching hunters how their actions impact the local deer population, and getting them to understand and WANT to fully participate in the process--which includes WANTING to become a better, more knowledgeable hunter--is unquestionably the key to a successful program.

As simple as this sounds, we humans have a few traits that increase the difficulty of managing us, at least from a scientific perspective. For whatever reason, and I'm sure this trait was very useful when we were still living in caves, but we humans have the exasperating trait of believing even the slightest inkling of a perception as being "The Final Truth Handed Down by God Almighty Himself." Once we have a strong feeling about something, we will believe it to be true, no matter any "proof" to the contrary. In essence, the old adage of "Perception is Reality."

That fact was brought home again this year with my own hunting party. We experienced the worst rut we've ever had. We hunted before, during, and after what is normally the peak of breeding, and did not witness a single buck chasing an estrus doe--something that is commonplace on our property at that time of year. Because of those experiences, every hunter in the group spent most of their non-hunting time wondering what was wrong and talking about how this was the worst hunting year we've ever had. Even when we ended up killing more shooter bucks than we ever have--the most in 27 years of hunting the property--opinions and perceptions did not change. No matter what data was presented, because of their poor rut hunting experiences, the hunters were absolutely locked into their negative perceptions.

Eventually, the evidence that this year was not terrible, but actually pretty good, became overwhelming. Yet ask any of the hunters, and unquestionable this was the worst year EVER, and this year bordered on a DISASTER.

Yet here's reality:

Looking at deer, buck, and "shooter" buck (any buck 2 1/2+) observation and harvest rates over the last six years--the period over which we have applied very heavy hunting pressure to the property:

Deer observed per hunting hour was dead on the average for the last 6 years.

The percent of hunts with deer sightings was right on average.

Bucks (any age) observed per hunting hour were 4% above average.

The percent of hunts with buck sightings was right on average.

"Shooter" bucks observed per hunting hour were 30% above average and was the highest rate of the last 6 years.

The percent of observed bucks that were "shooters" (46%) was 22% above average and the highest percentage of the last 6 years.

And what is usually most important to hunters--"shooter" bucks killed per hunting hour--was 42% above average, and actually the fastest rate of shooter buck harvest we've EVER had in 27 years!


Yet ask the hunters, and because the rut sucked, this year was TERRIBLE! I can't win... Perception trumps reality every time.

Reality on our lease in Marshall County was plenty of daytime chasing the last week of muzzleloader right into first week in December.
 
UTGrad said:
Reality on our lease in Marshall County was plenty of daytime chasing the last week of muzzleloader right into first week in December.

The problem is, even if that is accurate (and I have no doubt it is accurate), it is still perception. Was this a better year--in reality, with real numbers--or a worse year than previous years? Hunters (myself included) are TERRIBLE at assessing these things without hard numbers to prove it one way or the other.
 
Deer hunting is addictive. Squeezing the trigger on a deer and particularly on a "shooter" buck is the epitome of that addiction. Past successful hunts and the "visualization stimulation" that accompanied those hunts is always on my mind every time I climb into a stand, especially during "prime" time. The lack of that visualization during a hunting season tends to register as an uneventful hunt. Even with a highly successful year on paper I can still say "not in the immediate area where I was hunting". Right place/wrong time?

Just curious as to your records...Are your numbers based on a whole or individually? For instance one hunter may have taken 50% of the deer killed out of a group or seen rutting action every trip to the woods as opposed to no other hunters seeing any. That would still give an average but somewhat skewed.
 
BSK said:
UTGrad said:
Reality on our lease in Marshall County was plenty of daytime chasing the last week of muzzleloader right into first week in December.

The problem is, even if that is accurate (and I have no doubt it is accurate), it is still perception. Was this a better year--in reality, with real numbers--or a worse year than previous years? Hunters (myself included) are TERRIBLE at assessing these things without hard numbers to prove it one way or the other.

Huh?? Im confused. BSK, how is it that physically seeing bucks chasing doe is defined as a perception, and not a reality? :confused:
 
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I think what he is saying is unless you have data any "observed" day time chasing is null unless you have the data to back it up lol
 
Most hunters judge the rut by what they see and what others are seeing. I haven't reached the point where I put that into a spreadsheet.
 
Regardless I'm not sure if the rut was bad in TN. I saw daytime chasing along with several others that posted on this forum. Every year there will be people that don't see much chasing.

I will ask around to some others to see how their rut went.Maybe I'm wrong.
 
My Take and is perception only, The Rut happened I don't always follow the Rut hard, why you may ask. I an E TN hunter. I saw one buck chasing a doe That was a big deal for me, in Dec. The Buck I shot Saturday the 4th of jan was with a doe. Breeding is still going on. I feel the rut happens more at night but there is rut to be seen during daylight if your in the woods everyday.

I cant hunt everyday. So I expect to see less of a rut, How do i know its going on scrapes, rubs and the new fawns that will be born. If i based my hunting on the rut only i would be in big trouble. I also feel hunters (perception now) sit in the stand hoping a doe in heat will come by with a buck chasing. I very rarely seen bucks on run ways. when i have it is due to the rut and they are looking for Doe.

I seen more bucks cruse ridges with the nose in the air then on run ways. again my perception only. I am by no means an expert. But also what is a shooter in the eyes of the hunter?

I had a great year saw small bucks, big bucks and medium bucks. saw doe's as well.
 
Knothead said:
BSK said:
UTGrad said:
Reality on our lease in Marshall County was plenty of daytime chasing the last week of muzzleloader right into first week in December.

The problem is, even if that is accurate (and I have no doubt it is accurate), it is still perception. Was this a better year--in reality, with real numbers--or a worse year than previous years? Hunters (myself included) are TERRIBLE at assessing these things without hard numbers to prove it one way or the other.

Huh?? Im confused. BSK, how is it that physically seeing bucks chasing doe be defined as a perception, and not a reality? :confused:

I was talking about comparative reality. Is this year better than last year? The year before? Were my experiences on Property X better than Property Y? Without numbers, you'll never know. Comparative perceptions are so often wrong, and based on less than defensible criteria.
 
UTGrad said:
Most hunters judge the rut by what they see and what others are seeing.

Exactly, and the key word is "judge." Hunters use perceptive judgments, and unfortunately, human perceptions are so terribly inaccurate.

I haven't reached the point where I put that into a spreadsheet.

You should try it. That practice, over time, can be very illuminating.
 
UTGrad said:
I will ask around to some others to see how their rut went.Maybe I'm wrong.

For you, the rut was great. Some others have reported the best rut they've ever seen. But if you have time (and few of us do), go bck over this season (since the rut) and count how many comments you can find on here detailing how terrible the rut was versus those reporting a great rut. You'll find a HUGE disparity between the two, with views heavily favoring a bad rut; far more than I can remember reading on here in past years.

Every year, some people have a good year and some have a bad year. That's probably due to differences in hunting location, stand choices, days hunted, and many other factors. And those differences may be real, and could be proven numerically. However, how many people have a "good year" or "bad year" from their perception, but if numerically tested, the year was not what they believe? THAT is the point I'm getting at. Since their views are based just on perception, perhaps they allowed just a few experiences to over-ride all other input. It really is shocking how the human mind will refuse to input information that runs contrary to what the person believes is true or WANTS to be true. Our minds, perceptions, and memories are HIGHLY selective. We see, perceive, and remember things only the way we want them to be or believe them to be, not the way they really are. Our minds are not computers. We do not record raw information. We filter everything we see and experience through our perceptive processes, which can dramatically change how our minds interpret and even store that information.
 
BSK what is vast majority pf thinking a shooter buck is. I mean what do you see. Now with the check on line system, i guess it would be more difficult to track age. I believe my buck Saturday was 2 1/2. But being really a food hunter i have never really practiced aging.
 
Stalkhunter,

Everyone has a slightly different standard for what a "shooter" buck is to them, and that's OK. Each group or individual needs to decide what age or size buck they consider taking, from any buck with antlers on up to a specific age and/or antler score. In fact, there's an entire thread discussing shooter buck standards over in the QDM Forum.

If every deer is checked online, it does preclude getting ages at check stations, but the TWRA is moving towards getting their biological data from processors. Some good comparative analyses found the data from processors is quite close to data collected at check stations.

If you want to learn more about judging buck age on-the-hoof, there's a "stickied" thread with aging examples at the top of the QDM Forum.

On my property, we have a very simple "minimum" definition of a shooter buck, and that is any buck 2 1/2 or older. Even though some hunters have higher standards than that, as far as data goes, any buck seen that is 2 1/2 or older is considered a shooter (even if the observer wouldn't personally shoot the buck).
 
Mike Belt said:
Just curious as to your records...Are your numbers based on a whole or individually? For instance one hunter may have taken 50% of the deer killed out of a group or seen rutting action every trip to the woods as opposed to no other hunters seeing any. That would still give an average but somewhat skewed.

I analyze them both ways. I look at the collective, and the individual stats. I also try to record at least each hunter's basic perception of the year before I calculate the real numbers, just as a test of perception. I think almost every hunter, including myself, guessed the numbers were going to be WAY down this year. I was as shocked as anybody that the numbers were so good.

Now as for individual numbers, my observation numbers really were as bas as I expected. I didn't hunt as much as I normally do, but I still only saw 3 antlered bucks this year while hunting by myself (I saw bucks while hunting with my daughter, but that data gets recorded under her name because she was the hunter). Normally, I'm going to end up passing up 12-15 bucks in a season. Yet I only saw 3 bucks all season. Lucky for me, 2 of them were good bucks and I killed them both. However, other hunters, who were absolutely convinced this was a disastrous year, actually had individual sighting rates that were near their personal best over the last 6 years. For whatever reason, their negative perceptions, developed early in season, were not changed by better observations later in the season.
 
BSK your season sounds like mine last year except i saw hardly any does in heavily populated areas. I did see a bunch of young bucks and one good one, but the dang ML misfired on me.

This year as far as sightings go WAY better. I saw does almost every hunt and the hunts i didn't i saw a small buck or three. I did get skunked some, but all in all from a sightings stand point pretty good.

It was a weird rut though. Rubs showed up in the middle of Oct. had small bucks chasing on the 9th of November and hunted pretty hard through Thanksgiving in different areas and never saw another chase. Saw bucks together on the 13th and things just shut off.
 
I cant argue with you! I too feel like this yr was terrible, and the rut hunting was in fact terrible as far as tons of buck sign and exciting doe chasing hunts go. All that said we too killed some good bucks. Not quite as many as a normal year but pretty close, which in reality makes it an almost normal yr. I will also agree that the overwhelming consensus from all hunters ive talked to this yr is that the Rut sucked! Which is very odd considering we had the best Nov weather I remember in a long time???
 
This past season's weather is what really throws me on the past rut. It's not unusual to start off at sunrise with temperatures in the 50's during some of our prime time. I always shake my head and think we're going to miss much of our day time rutting action. When we have a cold snap during that time I'm itching to get into the woods because the day time action should get hot. This year we had the colder temperatures leading up to and into that prime time and I never saw a gear shift in action. In fact I never saw the action get out of neutral. The number 1 stimulus was there and yet I saw more action in the years when it was lacking. Now I don't know whether I want to see colder weather leading into that time frame or not.
 
Mike,

I've noticed over the years that once temps drop below the mid 30's, movement decreases dramatically. My best temps seems to be lows 40-45 with highs anywhere south of 60.

Not sure why.

BSK,

You have any data from your place comparing morning movement with temps?
 
Mike Belt said:
This past season's weather is what really throws me on the past rut. It's not unusual to start off at sunrise with temperatures in the 50's during some of our prime time. I always shake my head and think we're going to miss much of our day time rutting action. When we have a cold snap during that time I'm itching to get into the woods because the day time action should get hot. This year we had the colder temperatures leading up to and into that prime time and I never saw a gear shift in action. In fact I never saw the action get out of neutral. The number 1 stimulus was there and yet I saw more action in the years when it was lacking. Now I don't know whether I want to see colder weather leading into that time frame or not.

Mike,

Your above post got me to thinking (a very dangerous prospect!). The key was your comments about what we normally see "when we have a cold snap" and then "this year we had the colder temperatures leading up to and into that prime time." Perhaps that's the key. We didn't have "normal" temperatures interspersed with distinct "cold snaps." We had fairly prolonged periods of colder than normal temperatures. Perhaps it is the sudden CHANGE in temperature that produces what we are used to seeing on those cold, frosty mornings.
 
AlabamaSwamper said:
Mike,

I've noticed over the years that once temps drop below the mid 30's, movement decreases dramatically. My best temps seems to be lows 40-45 with highs anywhere south of 60.

Not sure why.

BSK,

You have any data from your place comparing morning movement with temps?

Well of course I do!

And my data backs up what you are saying. Although the linear trend (dashed black line on graph) definitely suggest the warmer the morning temps, the less active bucks are, there is still that intriguing peak of activity in the 35 to 55 degree morning low range, and that unexpected dip in sighting rates during what most hunters would assume would be the best temperatures; lows of 20-35.

 
I would have to wonder if most of your temps below 30 degrees weren't more post-rut (late November)?

I would think to make some very accurate assumptions here, we would need to be comparing the morning lows for the same date in November over many years? Or more accurately, at the same time of the rut (which varies by date a bit year to year), thus it's even more challenging to figure this out. :)

My anecdotal observations over the years are that during pre-rut, the colder the better. But after peak-rut, seasonably cold temps may slow activity. And I'm wondering if more of your colder November temps weren't in late November (past peak rut) for your area?
 
Well I certainly agree with what your saying. I had one of my worst years in a long time. Why. I don't know. I killed about the same number of deer. I did have less deer within bow range and could not buy a doe to get into bow range the last 2 months. I thought something was off with the herd. But when I look at TWRA numbers its pretty close to last year as far as kills. Maybe it all comes down to the "fun Factor" Its fun seeing bucks chase does. Its fun getting deer within Bow range even if you don't plan on shoot. And when you don't see that your missing something you enjoy even if the end result on kills is the same.
 
Excellent questions Wes, and all are possible scenarios. I'll have to break the data out into the first half of November (normally our peak rut action), versus the second half (trending towards the end of the rut for us locally).
 
The best years I have ever seen are the years that we have a lot of acorns and the Buck to Doe ratio is close to 1:1. It seems that acorns are a major factor on what kind of rut I see on my place.
 
BSK...All things basically being the same the temperature was the only difference in this and past years. There were basically no swings and instead a steady cold. I'll bet that those "snaps" trigger much of the movement we missed seeing this year.
 
I will have to say that the colder the better has been my experience with Nov rut hunting. That said rarely does it get really cold (less than 20 deg) here In Tn in Nov.. I will agree however that a sudden drop in temps will trigger great movement.
 
Mike Belt said:
This past season's weather is what really throws me on the past rut. It's not unusual to start off at sunrise with temperatures in the 50's during some of our prime time. I always shake my head and think we're going to miss much of our day time rutting action. When we have a cold snap during that time I'm itching to get into the woods because the day time action should get hot. This year we had the colder temperatures leading up to and into that prime time and I never saw a gear shift in action. In fact I never saw the action get out of neutral. The number 1 stimulus was there and yet I saw more action in the years when it was lacking. Now I don't know whether I want to see colder weather leading into that time frame or not.

X2
 

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