Honest question about numbers

[RobbyW]

I do not turkey hunt but do follow on here. Why is the sky falling? It seems like that kill numbers being up is a concern, but if they were down it would be a concern. Where is the sweet spot? Is the concern because individuals aren't hearing or seeing the birds?


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[deerfever]

Good question? I am curious also, I hunt all light blue counties. I have heard and seen several, this is the most Jakes I have seen in years. I am satisfied with the current status in the counties I hunt but I know everyone is not and I realize things can't be based off just me. What harvest number would have satisfied everyone this year or raised no question for concern?

 

[megalomaniac]

The fear is that the harvest numbers no longer correlate with the standing population.

20 years ago, when TN killed 30,000 birds, it was just a small percentage of the population, and many males were left to mate well into June and early July.

Hunting tactics have changed since then, and hunters are no longer hunters, but killers. Strutter decoys, fanning, shotshells capable of killing at 60 to 70 yards have made poor callers and those lacking woodsmanship skills as effective or even more effective than traditional hunters. But even the traditional hunters are more effective.... decades of honing their calling and set up crafts have resulted in more toms being fooled and lured to the gun.

So in essence, what we fear is a much larger percentage of the male population is being removed, perhaps even so many to disrupt successful breeding. Remember, turkeys are the ONLY gamebird hunted just prior and during their mating season.

Could you imagine hardcore duck hunters setting up on the nesting grounds in Northern USA and Canada and killing a limit of mallards over potholes during nesting season?

Don't get me wrong... I WANT to hunt spring gobbling birds coming in hot looking for me. But I realize the resource is especially vulnerable during this timeframe, and would prefer to err on the side of caution than realize too late we have overharvested the resource.

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[timberghost3591]

I have a huge gut feeling next year on some of the public I hunt, it's gonna be bad. There was one WMA that took 8 birds on opening day. This place usually only kills 8-12 on a average. This yr was damn near double that.

Another took almost 30 and I have never seen it get above 10 since I have been hunting it for almost 8 yrs. Not to mention in years past, you could hear a bird gobble every time you went. I have hunted it the last three wins and haven't found tracks, scratching, yugo, nothing. It's like they vanished...

I have a bad feeling that TN took a whole lot more birds than we could have afforded to let go and SOME, notice I said some as some places can afford a lot more that others, will see a HUGE drop next yr. Especially with the guidelines that were put out a wk or so ago.

 

[Newt]

That's what I was going to say mega lol jk well said I agree

 

[Southern Sportsman]

Mega explained it well. And I will add that this concern - i.e., that we are maintaining annual harvest around 30,000 turkeys by killing a progressively larger percentage of available males each year - is fairly well shown in the reproduction numbers. Poult recruitment (number of hens with poults and number of poults per hen) shown in the annual statewide summer brood survey has been steadily falling for a decade. So we're producing fewer turkeys each year but we're still killing just as many or more each spring. That math isn't hard to figure out. So there is not a magic number for annual harvest that would make me happy. The state acknowledging that poult recruitment is bad and falling and bird numbers are down in general and doing something about our unjustifiably liberal seasons and limits would make me happy.

 

[poorhunter]

In many areas the population has had a dramatic decline while still killing basically the same number of birds each year. This will, in many places, overstrain the leftover population and there WILL be a sharp decline in harvest next year. I have non-hunters asking me often "where are all the turkeys? What happened?". I can only say I don't know for sure but they are only about 20% of what they were 4 years ago. And THATS more than the last two years.

 

[AT Hiker]

Is the concern because individuals aren't hearing or seeing the birds?


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Plenty of concern within the research realm. Biologist acknowledge something is happening and are conducting research.

"Without exception, all southeastern states are seeing declining production," says Michael J. Chamberlain, a wildlife ecology and management professor at the University of Georgia.

Fifteen states have formed a cooperative effort to study the declines and, hopefully, put brakes on the slump. Headed up by Chamberlain and wildlife biologists from Texas A&M University, the Southeast Regional Wild Turkey Reproductive Decline Study is working with wildlife agencies and conservation groups such as the National Wild Turkey Federation to find out if there are common factors affecting turkeys throughout the Southeast. The effort is not just about gobblers. Healthy wild turkey numbers can be an indication that overall habitat quality is high, and biologists worry that a decline might mean that other, less stud- ied species could be suffering under the radar."

https://www.audubon.org/magazine/wild-turkey-rocks

 

[TheLBLman]

I'll put it this way:

The last time I personally saw so few longbeards in early May of any year
was before we had a county-wide turkey season in Stewart Co.

I can mainly only speak for Stewart County.

That said, the turkey population "exists" widespread,
but is mostly comprised of young birds,
with almost no males over 1 year of age still living.

The only saving grace (until next year) is there was apparently a decent hatch & poult survival in 2019, as evidenced by decent numbers of jakes & jennys.

But that was just "luck".
TWRA's turkey management should not rely on just dumb luck.

The main reason we're not hearing much gobbling is because there are so few few males over a year old.
The main reason for that is too many males have been killed over the past 3 years,
but most particularly just since early April of this year.

 

[TN Larry]

It's observations in a widespread area for me. It's not just one farm that I am seeing a drastic decline in population the last few years. These are areas with good turkey habitat that did hold a ton of birds. It's also talking with other turkey hunters that are seeing the same thing. Another is from my Dad who is not a turkey hunter. He works for the highway road department so he spends a lot of time on the road throughout the county. He said last year that there is definitely not near as many turkeys as in the past few from his observations. His direct comment this year was "The turkeys are going to go extinct if something doesn't change." That is a tongue and cheek comment in terms of extinction as they are not going to go extinct but maybe from a quality hunt perspective. After this years number of birds that have been killed, I don't really look forward to what the next few have in store. This is one time that I hope that I am wrong.......

 

[TheLBLman]

It's observations in a widespread area for me.
It's not just one farm that I am seeing a drastic decline in population the last few years.
These are areas with good turkey habitat that did hold a ton of birds.

This would also be true for my post above.
In fact, over many square miles that DID have good turkey populations over a decade ago,
the nesting habit has been steadily and greatly improved, widespread.

 

[catman529]

The sky is not falling. Some areas are down, some are up, some are stable. People are concerned about why some areas have come down in numbers over the past 10-15 years.


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[TheLBLman]

People are concerned about why some areas have come down in numbers over the past 10-15 years.

It's not "some", but MOST areas.

 

[AT Hiker]

People are concerned about why some areas have come down in numbers over the past 10-15 years.

It's not "some", but MOST areas.

Denial allows people think its "some" areas.

 

[JT262]

good stuff in this post. It does make you wonder what is in store for the next few years to come. I hunt Morgan county and it's been tough this year only heard 3 birds where last year we could strike a bird every day. Sometimes 2 at a time. Not seeing much sign where I have in the past, so I covered lots of ground with no luck. Started hunting Cumberland county was able to get on a few birds, but there was lots of pressure and things went downhill fast. It does seam as though in my area that the population has been declining over the past few years.

 

[arkwaterfowler]

I hunt Montgomery county which has a lot of birds. 15 years ago, no birds on my farm. 10 years ago a good number. five years ago we were loaded. this year is like 10 years ago and about the same as last year. I do think there is a conundrum in concern for the turkey species but still killing four birds a year. I do not think the sky is falling at my farm but i always leave a couple birds for seed for next year realizing those toms probably have a 50% chance of dying this year by coyote or other predator. I like to kill turkeys in the woods without decoys and do not think a guy with a 12 gauge and a decoy is a turkey hunter although he may be a turkey killer. The TWRC is in a tough spot as to what to do as most folks just want them to "do something". If they ban decoys, lower the limit to 2 adult toms, and open the season a week or two later it still may not "solve" the problem. This will lead to the TWRC being criticized for acting without using data and science also known as the ready fire aim theory. The last three wet springs have not helped nest survival.

So i don't think the sky is falling but i do think it is time to start a phased approach to limits, decoys, etc. TWRA deserves a lot of credit for reestablishing the turkey population in this state and i trust they will make the right decision for the future of the wild turkey in Tennessee.

 

[drake799]

I think One part of problem is we have a tremendous amount of hunters now. Everyone turkey hunts now People you didn't know hunted now hunt turkeys lol. If nothing else reduce the limits to allow other hunters a opportunity at killing birds that might be killed by the guy that's killing his 3rd or 4th bird. I would dare say nearly everyone that is opposed to reducing limits either kills their 4 every year or thinks they have a real good shot at it That's the main thing. People don't want to give up them birds. People argue well there not many people that kill 3 birds and even fewer that kill 4.... well in my opinion that's good it means reducing the limit is not goin to effect many people then lol Maybe those guys that kill their 2 will take someone else so they can harvest a bird But that's not gonna be the cure all for the problem. They're gonna have to do something about the reaping And decoys that lots of people use as a crutch these days.

 

[Southern Sportsman]

I would dare say nearly everyone that is opposed to reducing limits either kills their 4 every year or thinks they have a real good shot at it That's the main thing. People don't want to give up them birds.

I'm not saying this is wrong, but pretty much everyone I know actively lobbying for reduced limits and/or delayed start dates (1) typically kills their limit every season, and (2) hunts somewhere other than the land of milk and honey in region II. These are the guys that put in a lot of time each season and recognize that bird numbers are falling year after year. They like killing their allotment of turkeys, but more than that they see whats coming and want there to be turkeys to hunt 5 years from now.

 

[megalomaniac]

TWRA deserves a lot of credit for reestablishing the turkey population in this state and i trust they will make the right decision for the future of the wild turkey in Tennessee.

I give TWRA all the credit for reestablishing turkeys back in the 80s and early 90s. Since then TWRA biologists have been our turkeys worst enemies. I have zero faith any decision they make will be in the best interest of our turkeys.



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[megalomaniac]

People argue well there not many people that kill 3 birds and even fewer that kill 4.... well in my opinion that's good it means reducing the limit is not goin to effect many people then lol

I haven't run the numbers, but my suspocion is that this year will also be a record for number of people tagging 3 or 4 birds.

TWRAs argument is that we can have a 4 bird limit since so few tag 4 birds. The future of turkeys DEPENDS on only a handful tagging 3 or 4 birds. In normal years, that is the case... but this year with near perfect hunting weather and so many off work, the 4 bird limit has killed an extra est 7500 birds, plus a couple thousand extra crippling loss.

I'm in the camp that limits don't matter as much as season start dates, but this year sets the standard for the damage a liberal limit can do to the population.



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[drake799]

I would dare say nearly everyone that is opposed to reducing limits either kills their 4 every year or thinks they have a real good shot at it That's the main thing. People don't want to give up them birds.

I'm not saying this is wrong, but pretty much everyone I know actively lobbying for reduced limits and/or delayed start dates (1) typically kills their limit every season, and (2) hunts somewhere other than the land of milk and honey in region II. These are the guys that put in a lot of time each season and recognize that bird numbers are falling year after year. They like killing their allotment of turkeys, but more than that they see whats coming and want there to be turkeys to hunt 5 years from now.

I'm one of the people you speak of lol. That's just my opinion. But I just think a lot of those opposing reduction are serious hunters that have great places to hunt and want to kill as many as they can There are people that would love for the limit to go up to 6 lol

 

[Bgoodman30]

The sky is not falling. Some areas are in decline and changes need to be made but even there the finger can't be pointed at over harvest...

There were simply more targets this year, hunters didn't get more efficient over night..

I feel more optimistic about my spots over several counties at the end of this season than I did last year. With the numbers of Jakes things are looking up!

Hopefully some changes can be made in declining areas but hunting regulations will not save the wild turkey...


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[Andy S.]

The fear is that the harvest numbers no longer correlate with the standing population.

20 years ago, when TN killed 30,000 birds, it was just a small percentage of the population, and many males were left to mate well into June and early July.

Hunting tactics have changed since then, and hunters are no longer hunters, but killers. Strutter decoys, fanning, shotshells capable of killing at 60 to 70 yards have made poor callers and those lacking woodsmanship skills as effective or even more effective than traditional hunters. But even the traditional hunters are more effective.... decades of honing their calling and set up crafts have resulted in more toms being fooled and lured to the gun.

So in essence, what we fear is a much larger percentage of the male population is being removed, perhaps even so many to disrupt successful breeding. Remember, turkeys are the ONLY gamebird hunted just prior and during their mating season.

Could you imagine hardcore duck hunters setting up on the nesting grounds in Northern USA and Canada and killing a limit of mallards over potholes during nesting season?

Don't get me wrong... I WANT to hunt spring gobbling birds coming in hot looking for me. But I realize the resource is especially vulnerable during this timeframe, and would prefer to err on the side of caution than realize too late we have overharvested the resource.

Mega explained it well. And I will add that this concern - i.e., that we are maintaining annual harvest around 30,000 turkeys by killing a progressively larger percentage of available males each year - is fairly well shown in the reproduction numbers. Poult recruitment (number of hens with poults and number of poults per hen) shown in the annual statewide summer brood survey has been steadily falling for a decade. So we're producing fewer turkeys each year but we're still killing just as many or more each spring. That math isn't hard to figure out. So there is not a magic number for annual harvest that would make me happy. The state acknowledging that poult recruitment is bad and falling and bird numbers are down in general and doing something about our unjustifiably liberal seasons and limits would make me happy.

Read these two posts over and over. Also, TN has 95 counties. If one with an opinion on this matter primarily hunts in one of the top 5 producing counties (5% of the State), be very cautious taking their opinion seriously on a Statewide issue, not a localized one. It is very akin to a Billionaire telling the working class that $4/gallon gas is not expensive. My .02

 

[TN hunter]

The fear is that the harvest numbers no longer correlate with the standing population.

20 years ago, when TN killed 30,000 birds, it was just a small percentage of the population, and many males were left to mate well into June and early July.

Hunting tactics have changed since then, and hunters are no longer hunters, but killers. Strutter decoys, fanning, shotshells capable of killing at 60 to 70 yards have made poor callers and those lacking woodsmanship skills as effective or even more effective than traditional hunters. But even the traditional hunters are more effective.... decades of honing their calling and set up crafts have resulted in more toms being fooled and lured to the gun.

So in essence, what we fear is a much larger percentage of the male population is being removed, perhaps even so many to disrupt successful breeding. Remember, turkeys are the ONLY gamebird hunted just prior and during their mating season.

Could you imagine hardcore duck hunters setting up on the nesting grounds in Northern USA and Canada and killing a limit of mallards over potholes during nesting season?

Don't get me wrong... I WANT to hunt spring gobbling birds coming in hot looking for me. But I realize the resource is especially vulnerable during this timeframe, and would prefer to err on the side of caution than realize too late we have overharvested the resource.

Mega explained it well. And I will add that this concern - i.e., that we are maintaining annual harvest around 30,000 turkeys by killing a progressively larger percentage of available males each year - is fairly well shown in the reproduction numbers. Poult recruitment (number of hens with poults and number of poults per hen) shown in the annual statewide summer brood survey has been steadily falling for a decade. So we're producing fewer turkeys each year but we're still killing just as many or more each spring. That math isn't hard to figure out. So there is not a magic number for annual harvest that would make me happy. The state acknowledging that poult recruitment is bad and falling and bird numbers are down in general and doing something about our unjustifiably liberal seasons and limits would make me happy.

Read these two posts over and over. Also, TN has 95 counties. If one with an opinion on this matter primarily hunts in one of the top 5 producing counties (5% of the State), be very cautious taking their opinion seriously on a Statewide issue, not a localized one. It is very akin to a Billionaire telling the working class that $4/gallon gas is not expensive. My .02

^^^100% agree !!!^^^


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[letmland]

What about the policy of selling our Turkeys to Texas. I had never heard of this, and it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but I was told directly by A guy involved in the trapping. I think it's been a while since they've done it. I know they shipped some to Texas, some to Maryland and some to Canada, back in like 2006. He didn't say when the last time they exported any was.

We got turkeys all over Franklin, going in peoples kitchens, why don't they relocate some of them over here where they're about to cut the season. He said he did relocate about 100 a few years ago and requested to do that again, but they wanted to focus on banding and tracking instead, which I'm sure is a good thing, but there's no need in having flocks of birds in subdivisions causing problems when they could be relocated to areas that have declined.

 

[megalomaniac]

What about the policy of selling our Turkeys to Texas. I had never heard of this, and it sounds like a conspiracy theory, but I was told directly by A guy involved in the trapping. I think it's been a while since they've done it. I know they shipped some to Texas, some to Maryland and some to Canada, back in like 2006. He didn't say when the last time they exported any was.

We got turkeys all over Franklin, going in peoples kitchens, why don't they relocate some of them over here where they're about to cut the season. He said he did relocate about 100 a few years ago and requested to do that again, but they wanted to focus on banding and tracking instead, which I'm sure is a good thing, but there's no need in having flocks of birds in subdivisions causing problems when they could be relocated to areas that have declined.

That's exactly what started my decline on my main farm. Back in the early 2000s, TWRA trapped 60 hens and 15 jakes off the farm next to me (they were wanting some toms as well, but the bachelor group didn't wander into the cannon net). That spring, hunting was incredible. 4 or 5 toms were following a single hen around. Squawk on a call and 2 or 3 toms were in your lap in 10 minutes. But the drastic reduction in hens caused a drastic reduction in poults, and the remaining nesting hens couldn't keep up with predation, and our local flock dwindled to nothing over the next 5 years. Before that, I bought a sportsmans license every year to support TWRA, even though I had a landowner exemption. After they overharvested my local population, I refused to buy another license until I moved to MS and was forced to buy NR license. I'm still bitter about what TWRA did to my local flock, and we still haven't gotten back to 25% of what the population used to be. I dont know if those birds were sent to Texas or somewhere else in TN, but TWRA was trading our birds to TX at the time.

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[Mike Belt]

Due to a lack of a place to hunt I haven't turkey hunted in a few years. Back when I did I also spent a lot of time in Shelby Forest. I saw turkeys everywhere I went while driving or walking around. Then the trapping started. After that the birds you saw were very spotty and unless things have changed, the numbers were never the same. Populating areas with no birds is done by trapping birds. I think in some areas they were over zealous in doing so and now some of those trapped areas need restocking.

 

[Hawk]

Due to a lack of a place to hunt I haven't turkey hunted in a few years. Back when I did I also spent a lot of time in Shelby Forest. I saw turkeys everywhere I went while driving or walking around. Then the trapping started. After that the birds you saw were very spotty and unless things have changed, the numbers were never the same. Populating areas with no birds is done by trapping birds. I think in some areas they were over zealous in doing so and now some of those trapped areas need restocking.

The reoccurring floods on the Mississippi river have wrecked havoc on the turkey population to the point that restocking is needed .

 

[Stlbaseball1]

The reoccurring floods on the Mississippi river have wrecked havoc on the turkey population to the point that restocking is needed .[/quote]

AMEN!!!!

 

[woodswise]

I believe it all depends on who you ask. I have access to several counties and lots of small local areas I simply can hunt a while almost every morning. I have seen some of my local spots dry up and some explode. I have farms in surrounding counties where there is considerable hunting pressure that have lots of gobbling and yet I routinely talk to surrounding hunters that complain of no birds, Mind you Turkey hunters will lie to you! I would be in favor of no hen harvest and a reduced gobbler limit because in the long run we'd all have more of a future Turkey population. I enjoy the hunt not the kill and 2 birds instead of 4 would just mean being more selective.