Fall forecast

[BSK]

The seasonal forecasting group I trust most has posted their fall season forecast. This group isn't perfect, but over the last couple of years, they've gotten 2 out of every 3 seasonal forecasts correct.

Their forecast for this fall are:

* An early freeze (late September) for the Midwest.

* Multiple cold fronts in November that sweep down into at least the Ohio Valley, if not the TN Valley. Potential snowfall as early as late October across the Midwest.

* Deep South and the Southeast Atlantic Coast will experience a very wet fall, with flooding possible.

* Specifically for the TN Valley, a major severe storm and tornado outbreak in late October or early November, leading to a colder than normal November.

 

[preds1]

Thanks BSK.
Youth hunt could be interesting this year.

 

[BSK]

I'm hoping so! This will be the first youth hunt weekend I've hunted in many years.

 

[Lost Lake]

Boy I hope they're wrong about that tornado thing. Its been nice to be able to put down the chainsaw for awhile.

 

[MattR]

Cool, thanks for the info. Hopefully this years weather will be my friend instead of my enemy

 

[A/M/G]

BSK, I assume your daughter took the Hunter safety, did she do it online? I have a nephew that needs to do it.

 

[infoman jr.]

I like the sounds of that. Those beans can't turn brown soon enough!

 

[Shed Hunter]

Looking forward to this year more than any other.. I say that every year though.


I got money on cold fall and no tornados. Every year I see this there is something to get people on their toes and it doesn't even happen

 

[MUP]

Thanks for posting Bryan!

 

[BSK]

BSK, I assume your daughter took the Hunter safety, did she do it online? I have a nephew that needs to do it.

We decided to do the actual course. We're scheduled for evenings next week, with the shooting part on Saturday.

 

[W.Seay]

So what does that mean for fayette county (Somerville) TN?

 

[BSK]

I got money on cold fall and no tornados. Every year I see this there is something to get people on their toes and it doesn't even happen

People don't realize what a big secondary surge of tornadoes we've experience in TN in November. It's very noticeable in the data. We have some sort of major severe storm outbreak in November almost every year (usually during MZ season).

 

[BSK]

The forecasters also mentioned a very active late hurricane season, with some tropical storms even into November. This could be a real problem for already waterlogged Deep South and Coastal states.

 

[BSK]

So what does that mean for fayette county (Somerville) TN?

It will rain HARD every time you hunt. And only on your stand.

 

[W.Seay]

Thank goodness for shooting houses

 

[BSK]

Thank goodness for shooting houses

HA!!!

 

[Hunter 257W]

The forecasters also mentioned a very active late hurricane season, with some tropical storms even into November. This could be a real problem for already waterlogged Deep South and Coastal states.

Yeah, when you already have water standing in half your woods, a wet Fall forecast is depressing. On a positive note though, it should have some sort of funneling effect on deer movement as they go around the water.

 

[deerhunter10]

thanks bsk good info

 

[BSK]

The forecasters also mentioned a very active late hurricane season, with some tropical storms even into November. This could be a real problem for already waterlogged Deep South and Coastal states.

Yeah, when you already have water standing in half your woods, a wet Fall forecast is depressing. On a positive note though, it should have some sort of funneling effect on deer movement as they go around the water.

That's a good point. High water in some of TN's western swamps and bottomlands could be a major player in deer travel routes.

 

[TheLBLman]

High water in some of TN's western swamps and bottomlands could be a major player in deer travel routes.

Not necessarily. Just depends.
"Swamp" deer sometimes behave more like ducks than deer, and will often prefer swimming over walking around water. If the deer are accustomed to lots of water, they're more likely to swim.

 

[Recoil]

I don't give much credence to weather forecasts beyond 2 or 3 days...lol!

 

[spoon]

Hope this isn't true...got some customers plots in the bottoms/low areas that will be first year plots

 

[102]

High water in some of TN's western swamps and bottomlands could be a major player in deer travel routes.

Not necessarily. Just depends.
"Swamp" deer sometimes behave more like ducks than deer, and will often prefer swimming over walking around water. If the deer are accustomed to lots of water, they're more likely to swim.

agree 100%

 

[Vermin93]

* Multiple cold fronts in November that sweep down into at least the Ohio Valley, if not the TN Valley. Potential snowfall as early as late October across the Midwest.

I am drooling at the idea of being in Kansas during this time. Please let it be cold!

 

[bowriter]

I'm hoping so! This will be the first youth hunt weekend I've hunted in many years.

Wow! So you have regressed that far, huh? Fraid I'm not going to make it.

 

[BSK]

High water in some of TN's western swamps and bottomlands could be a major player in deer travel routes.

Not necessarily. Just depends.
"Swamp" deer sometimes behave more like ducks than deer, and will often prefer swimming over walking around water. If the deer are accustomed to lots of water, they're more likely to swim.

I don't know. I bet having the Hatchie Bottoms flooded would change deer patterns in that region.

 

[BSK]

I'm hoping so! This will be the first youth hunt weekend I've hunted in many years.

Wow! So you have regressed that far, huh?

Mentally, yes!

 

[TheLBLman]

I don't know. I bet having the Hatchie Bottoms flooded would change deer patterns in that region.

But then what change doesn't effect deer patterns?

Just pointing out that deer which have lots of swamp in their home ranges will often swim rather than go around.

 

[UTGrad]

leading to a colder than normal November.

YES!!

 

[MUP]

I don't know. I bet having the Hatchie Bottoms flooded would change deer patterns in that region.

But then what change doesn't effect deer patterns?

Just pointing out that deer which have lots of swamp in their home ranges will often swim rather than go around.

I've also heard local hunters that travel to Ill. talk about how the deer just "slosh" thru the flooded timber up there, like on a stroll thru the park.