CWD could kill the deer herd in 41 years!

[fairchaser]

Interesting article showing the mortality of a mule deer herd from CWD at 19% and could cause it to become extinct in 41 years, but there's also hope of a genetic resistant genome.

http://wyofile.com/study-chronic-wasting-disease-kills-19-deer-annually/

 

[TDW05]

Look out west. I think we will be ok here.

 

[backyardtndeer]

Interesting article. Interesting that the elk named lucky was exposed and had not contacted cwd. Surprised they were unable to confirm that predators do likely spread cwd.

 

[Jcalder]

You're reaching out there now….

 

[fairchaser]

You're reaching out there now….

Possibly and hopefully. The encouraging part is the herd will survive in some form and with the resistant genome could bring the herd back eventually stronger than ever.

The other aspect is whether it's smart to continue shrinking the herd to slow the spread now that we are hundreds of miles from the epicenter!

 

[AT Hiker]

Mule deer have it rough, everything from weather, predators and loss of habitat is trying to kill them…it's a delicate resource and CWD makes it that more dire.

The good news;
CWD doesn't seem to impact females getting pregnant and fawning, allowing the possible resistant gene to evolve throughout the herd.
Whitetail are not mule deer (which most cited studies seem to be on mule deer). Whitetail seem to be crafty little critters that can survive in some wild situations, unlike sensitive muleys.

 

[Bone Collector]

Look out west. I think we will be ok here.

I'm going to have to second this. If it were going to kill them in 41 years or around that timeframe, they'd be extinct in certain areas. This has been around since the late 60s.

 

[BSK]

Hmmm, a whole lot of critical information not in the article (although it might be in the candidate's dissertation). What is the total adult annual mortality rate? What are all of the causes? How much is hunting increasing mortality? What are the fawn production and survival rates (fawn recruitment rate)? How much immigration and emigration occurs annually?

This is a study of a fairly isolated pocket population. Most whitetail populations don't have that problem. In addition, as AT Hiker pointed out, Mule Deer are a very touchy species. Their populations are nowhere near as robust as whitetails and are highly susceptible to changes in mortality. On the other hand, whitetails are one of the most robust large mammal species known. They're like cockroaches: once you have them, they're virtually impossible to get rid of. They survive well in nearly any environment they are relocated into.

One other critical factor for whitetails is genetic diversity. I've posted many times about how genetically diverse whitetail populations are. They may be the most genetically diverse mammal known. It is my belief their social structure and breeding process creates this genetic diversity and is why they are such a successful species. Place a group of whitetails in any environment and just by shear random chance (due to extreme genetic diversity) some of those individuals will be genetically adapted to the environment. In the posted article they discussed the different gene allele sequences. They said there were 3 in the local mule deer population, and three in a studied elk population. Last I read, there are actually 6 known for all elk, with one potentially immune to CWD. And of my last reading of the data, because whitetails are so genetically diverse, researchers had found 83 variations of that allele in whitetails! Out of 83 variations, some will be immune. That's the way genetic diversity and Natural Selection works.

 

[AlabamaSwamper]

Funny

A friend of mine in another state said their models showed 50 years after they discovered CWD

Yet here a decade later they are shaking their heads that real world data isn't following their model.

So life goes on now.

 

[Headhunter]

Copying a post I just made. Seriously, does anyone have a clue if the articles are valid at all? It does make me wonder.

I believe it has been around since the 1960's and apparently has not bothered humans, I don't want to be the "first" case though.

But do the articles below have zero validity? I have no clue who the guy is, one of my friends shared it with me, some of his family is from the area the articles come from.

http://larrydablemontoutdoors.blogspot.com/2021/11/what-is-truth-about-horrible-dise.html
If link doesn't work, it can be found in November newspaper articles at www.larrydablemont.com.


and
http://larrydablemontoutdoors.blogspot.com/2021/11/known-by-many-names.html

 

[JCDEERMAN]

In the posted article they discussed the different gene allele sequences. They said there were 3 in the local mule deer population, and three in a studied elk population. Last I read, there are actually 6 known for all elk, with one potentially immune to CWD. And of my last reading of the data, because whitetails are so genetically diverse, researchers had found 83 variations of that allele in whitetails! Out of 83 variations, some will be immune. That's the way genetic diversity and Natural Selection works.

WHAT?? Now, this is encouraging and what the emphasis needs to be on. I want to learn more about THIS!

 

[BSK]

The biggest problem with Natural Selection doing away with CWD is how slowly CWD kills. Some mature deer are found that are positive but showing no clinical signs of the disease (not getting sick). Natural Selection works best when a disease kills quickly, only leaving the immune to reproduce and pass on their genetic immunity. If an animal can live a long life while being infected and infecting others, Natural Selection has nothing to select for.

 

[AT Hiker]

WHAT?? Now, this is encouraging and what the emphasis needs to be on. I want to learn more about THIS!

Wyoming has some fantastic resources for CWD research.

"….Furthermore, fawns produced by CWD-negative deer, which more likely possessed the more resistant genotype compared to CWD-positive deer in our study, potentially contributed to the increase of the F allele in the population….."

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0186512#pone.0186512.ref046

 

[AT Hiker]

The biggest problem with Natural Selection doing away with CWD is how slowly CWD kills. Some mature deer are found that are positive but showing no clinical signs of the disease (not getting sick). Natural Selection works best when a disease kills quickly, only leaving the immune to reproduce and pass on their genetic immunity. If an animal can live a long life while being infected and infecting others, Natural Selection has nothing to select for.

I've read a theory that predators (hunters included) naturally select CWD positive animals.

 

[BSK]

I've read a theory that predators (hunters included) naturally select CWD positive animals.

I can see how this theory may hold water, especially for predators. CWD sick deer may not display the same defenses and "stealth" hence get picked off easier.

 

[TheLBLman]

I can see how this theory may hold water, especially for predators. CWD sick deer may not display the same defenses and "stealth" hence get picked off easier.

Human hunters would also be more likely to kill these deer for the same reasons.

 

[BSK]

Human hunters would also be more likely to kill these deer for the same reasons.

True.

 

[TheLBLman]

Was just thinking about an observation that may be related to the spread of CWD.

Over the past couple years, I've seen more more bald eagles feeding on deer carcasses than in the preceding multiple decades! Eagles "hunt" over a very large area (much larger than coyotes), and are also migratory.

From what I understand, eagles (as well as buzzards, hawks, any bird eating the carcass) then "poop" out the prions wherever the poop. This has got to be a significant method of CWD spreading?

 

[Lost Lake]

Was just thinking about an observation that may be related to the spread of CWD.

Over the past couple years, I've seen more more bald eagles feeding on deer carcasses than in the preceding multiple decades! Eagles "hunt" over a very large area (much larger than coyotes), and are also migratory.

From what I understand, eagles (as well as buzzards, hawks, any bird eating the carcass) then "poop" out the prions wherever the poop. This has got to be a significant method of CWD spreading?

I've noticed more eagles for sure, but what I've noticed even more is the smaller, more aggressive black buzzards that seem to have migrated into our area in the last 15-20 years.

They're on a carcass in no time, and can wreak havoc on cow/ calf operations. They're way more aggressive than our regular Turkey Buzzards.

 

[fairchaser]

What is the logic for continuing to reduce populations after a long period of time? Slowing the spread has happened already and now populations are being reduced by the disease itself. Seems like the strategy should have a time limit.

 

[UCStandSitter]

Hmmm, a whole lot of critical information not in the article (although it might be in the candidate's dissertation). What is the total adult annual mortality rate? What are all of the causes? How much is hunting increasing mortality? What are the fawn production and survival rates (fawn recruitment rate)? How much immigration and emigration occurs annually?

This is a study of a fairly isolated pocket population. Most whitetail populations don't have that problem. In addition, as AT Hiker pointed out, Mule Deer are a very touchy species. Their populations are nowhere near as robust as whitetails and are highly susceptible to changes in mortality. On the other hand, whitetails are one of the most robust large mammal species known. They're like cockroaches: once you have them, they're virtually impossible to get rid of. They survive well in nearly any environment they are relocated into.

One other critical factor for whitetails is genetic diversity. I've posted many times about how genetically diverse whitetail populations are. They may be the most genetically diverse mammal known. It is my belief their social structure and breeding process creates this genetic diversity and is why they are such a successful species. Place a group of whitetails in any environment and just by shear random chance (due to extreme genetic diversity) some of those individuals will be genetically adapted to the environment. In the posted article they discussed the different gene allele sequences. They said there were 3 in the local mule deer population, and three in a studied elk population. Last I read, there are actually 6 known for all elk, with one potentially immune to CWD. And of my last reading of the data, because whitetails are so genetically diverse, researchers had found 83 variations of that allele in whitetails! Out of 83 variations, some will be immune. That's the way genetic diversity and Natural Selection works.

So in a nutshell, it's basically impossible whitetails could go extinct due to CWD if I'm reading this correctly?

I had to put on my thinking cap to follow all this.

 

[TheLBLman]

Seems like the strategy should have a time limit.

Like, 2 weeks, to slow the spread?

 

[BSK]

Highly unlikely whitetails could be driven to extinction from CWD. Other species, with less genetic diversity, not out of the question.

 

[AT Hiker]

So in a nutshell, it's basically impossible whitetails could go extinct due to CWD if I'm reading this correctly?

I had to put on my thinking cap to follow all this.

Not sure of the studies depth, but scrapie resistant prion proteins (CWD basically bends these and the build up of them causing death) have been compared to resistant cervids and suggest mutations can/do exist that could provide some protection. Whitetail are more likely to possess these alleles vs mule deer, though it seems.
Another study that inoculated CWD into deer with known alleles found that the deer with the resistant allele lived about a 3 years longer than the deer without the resistant allele (approx 1.5 years before death).
Do this provide potential evolution of protein resistant genotypes or is this just natures way of slowing the spread?

As a simpleton here, my opinion is nature will once again reign champion… question is how long will it take?

 

[DeerCamp]

Mule deer have it rough, everything from weather, predators and loss of habitat is trying to kill them…it's a delicate resource and CWD makes it that more dire.

The good news;
CWD doesn't seem to impact females getting pregnant and fawning, allowing the possible resistant gene to evolve throughout the herd.
Whitetail are not mule deer (which most cited studies seem to be on mule deer). Whitetail seem to be crafty little critters that can survive in some wild situations, unlike sensitive muleys.

I did my senior thesis on changes in Mule Deer genetics as a result of hunter and predatory pressure.

I grew up hunting them out West (New Mexico) and was always fascinated with the challenges that ole Odocoileus hemionus faced. (That's probably the only scientific name I can remember from college)

I wonder if I held on to that paper somewhere. Haven't seen it in 20 years and that old PC is long gone.

 

[DeerCamp]

Not sure of the studies depth, but scrapie resistant prion proteins (CWD basically bends these and the build up of them causing death) have been compared to resistant cervids and suggest mutations can/do exist that could provide some protection. Whitetail are more likely to possess these alleles vs mule deer, though it seems.
Another study that inoculated CWD into deer with known alleles found that the deer with the resistant allele lived about a 3 years longer than the deer without the resistant allele (approx 1.5 years before death).
Do this provide potential evolution of protein resistant genotypes or is this just natures way of slowing the spread?

As a simpleton here, my opinion is nature will once again reign champion… question is how long will it take?

The sheer size of the whitetail population bodes well for the future of deer hunting.

There are about 10X the number of Whitetails as Mule Deer.

 

[bloodtrailing]

No, climate crisis/change will kill them all in half that time.

 

[UCStandSitter]

Not sure of the studies depth, but scrapie resistant prion proteins (CWD basically bends these and the build up of them causing death) have been compared to resistant cervids and suggest mutations can/do exist that could provide some protection. Whitetail are more likely to possess these alleles vs mule deer, though it seems.
Another study that inoculated CWD into deer with known alleles found that the deer with the resistant allele lived about a 3 years longer than the deer without the resistant allele (approx 1.5 years before death).
Do this provide potential evolution of protein resistant genotypes or is this just natures way of slowing the spread?

As a simpleton here, my opinion is nature will once again reign champion… question is how long will it take?

I'd agree with that take, natural selection will see to it the deer with immunity become the dominant breeding group and the "weaker" parts of the heard thin out thereby eradicating the disease.

 

[BSK]

If CWD were going to wipe out entire cervid species, then why do we still have sheep? Scrappie in sheep is where CWD comes from and has been known for 1,000 years (literally). Because over hundreds and hundreds of years, sheep have developed defenses against Scrappie. Nature always finds a way.

 

[Mescalero]

Hmmm, a whole lot of critical information not in the article (although it might be in the candidate's dissertation). What is the total adult annual mortality rate? What are all of the causes? How much is hunting increasing mortality? What are the fawn production and survival rates (fawn recruitment rate)? How much immigration and emigration occurs annually?

This is a study of a fairly isolated pocket population. Most whitetail populations don't have that problem. In addition, as AT Hiker pointed out, Mule Deer are a very touchy species. Their populations are nowhere near as robust as whitetails and are highly susceptible to changes in mortality. On the other hand, whitetails are one of the most robust large mammal species known. They're like cockroaches: once you have them, they're virtually impossible to get rid of. They survive well in nearly any environment they are relocated into.

One other critical factor for whitetails is genetic diversity. I've posted many times about how genetically diverse whitetail populations are. They may be the most genetically diverse mammal known. It is my belief their social structure and breeding process creates this genetic diversity and is why they are such a successful species. Place a group of whitetails in any environment and just by shear random chance (due to extreme genetic diversity) some of those individuals will be genetically adapted to the environment. In the posted article they discussed the different gene allele sequences. They said there were 3 in the local mule deer population, and three in a studied elk population. Last I read, there are actually 6 known for all elk, with one potentially immune to CWD. And of my last reading of the data, because whitetails are so genetically diverse, researchers had found 83 variations of that allele in whitetails! Out of 83 variations, some will be immune. That's the way genetic diversity and Natural Selection works.

Something similar appears to occur with EHD. While EHD can wipe out 50% of a local white tailed deer population (or more?), the survivors have immunity. EHD is a virus, not a Mis-folded protein, so it's immunity via antibodies not genetic immunity in the survivors. This is why it's rare to have back-to-back EHD years locally, as the survivors have immunity.

Heard this on the Jan 3 MeatEater podcast by Jim Heffelfinger, wildlife biologist. A good listen and they cover a lot ground on EHD, CWD, and other "Things That are not Sexy to Talk About." Rinella somewhat wisecracked that if herd reduction is the solution to CWD (not sure if that's his view), but he did make a wisecrack that then will EHD help save the southeast's deer from CWD?